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This is going to be a long post, probably even by my standards. I will try to cover the various rules and concepts that everything has to work through. Sorry if it's confusing but I will try to break things down as best I can. I'd prefer to as best that i can explain all the different factors, rules and regulations and try to bring you through the discussion about the feasibility or not of a very aggressive approach at the trade table. If I mention your favourite player, I apologise in advance, but its an attempt at a reasoned exploration of the concept and as you will read the names can change for the most part, with a few exceptions.
From the outset, this is just a theory, a proof of concept, for what a very aggressive approach to the 2021 & 2022 Trade & Draft. Nothing more, nothing less. Take or leave whatever works for you, and disagree with rest.
The AFEL laws, rules and regulations that are relevant to the draft, trade, deficit etc. are not all publicly available. Some are in the formal corporate rules (197 Pages) are public, however the General Counsel of the AFEL sends info direct to clubs that are not made public. However, some footy journalists have seen the documents and reported on them, and I have used their reporting of them to inform my analysis. As this is just one scenario (of a million that could arise) I will put in some others clubs and players to make reading this scenario a little easier. If you don't like the player, find another similarly valued player and use that if that better works for your reading.
As a prelude, our Sam Power has the ability to be very aggressive when he wants to be. For example, in 2019 we secured Bruce & Keath to fill large gaps on the list and the draft consequences were just our first rounder and then the 12th & 4th last picks in the draft. We were involved in a Future Pick Trade/Swap too.
So lets get cracking:
Delistings (4):
Jong
Martin
Hayes (R)
Cavarra (R)
Aggressive Trade 1:
Trade out our First Rounder for a Ruckman, that ideally has some draft point synergy. For illustrative purposes only, Peter Ladhams has he seems gettable. So, Ladhams for Our First & Fourth Rounders. But we want our future Fourth Rounder exchanged for Port's future Third Rounder.
Th reasoning is Ladhams isn't getting sustained senior footy at Port and can with us and we have a good pick on the table. You might think what good does our Fourth do them? Firstly, they have dibs on Jase Burgoyne who looks a good sort and they are currently looking at a deficit themselves. Our Fourth Rounder by the time Free Agency compo is factored in is zero Draft Points towards us, as we he need to match a bloody high bid. But... after Collingwood & Bulldogs both burn through around 8 picks in the First Two Picks, the shuffling down begins. That now shuffles our Fourth Rounder into a Draft Point bearing Pick for Port Adelaide. Now if there's another one or two bid on before Burgoyne (which could very well happen), Port could conceivably net about 100+ Draft Points from holding our Fourth Rounder. By the future swap, we come out ahead by about 100 Draft Points overall. Win/Win.
The wash up for us is we net a First Ruck in Ladhams, who can go forward and get about 100 extra Draft Points. This will increase our deficit limit with the AFEL.
The wash up for them is Two First Round Picks at the draft and moving closer to having Burgoyne without deficit, for a player they're not regularly playing.
Under this or a similar trade, our 2021 First Rounder is gone, and we look to trades to get us enough Draft Points this year.
Trades/Free Agent Compo (4):
Young (Future 4th Rounder)
Wallis (Third Round Compo, Pick 54) - 220 Draft Points
Johanissen - Circa Pick 44 - 362 Draft Points (or multiple later picks to a higher value)
Lipinski - Circa Pick 32 - 584 Draft Points (Sydney seems to be mentioned)
---------------------------------------------------
Total Draft Points: 1,166
Total Players Out: 6 Primary List, 2 Rookie List
Total Player Payments:
(Numbers for argument sake, except JJ's salary is actual)
JJ is on $600,000
Wally say $350,000 ($950,000)
Martin say $300,000 ($1,250,000)
Lipisnki say $250,000 ($1,500,000)
Young on say $250,000 ($1,750,000)
Jong on say $250,000 ($2,000,000)
(Rookie base salaries outside cap)
Now lets say we elevate Khamis, Gardner & Sweet and Darcy is on a rookie contract. We can trade for two very good players and not impact our TPP and money needed for next season with some good players out. But the crucial player to encourage to 'explore the market' is JJ. We simply can't pay huge money to a guy getting not a lot of possessions, tackles and .4 Goals Per game. JJ like Dahlhaus going to a better, more secure contract works for everyone really well and importantly it opens up the field for us.
Sam Darcy:
North has come out and said that they will bid on Daicos & Darcy 'for draft integrity'. Im going to read into this Darcy at Pick 2. Power Rankings from Doerre (ESPN) and Twomey (AFEL Media) has Darcy at three but the chatter of Darcy at at least Pick 2 is very real.
Pick 2 = 2,517 Draft Points - less 20% discount of 503 Draft Points = 2,014 Draft Points
Draft Point Calculation on Darcy:
Draft Points Needed: 2,014
Current Draft Points: 1,166
------------------------------
Draft Points Deficit: 848 owed in 2022
A short explanation on Draft Point Deficits:
The AFEL cap the deficit based on the Draft Points attached to Picks 18, 36, 54 & 72. But things can change as per a document sent to clubs detailing the finer points.
However, if you trade out a Pick from any round, the AFEL reduce our limit by the Draft Points in the corresponding round. However again, if you trade in future picks your deficit can be increased.
Before the 2022 Trade Period begins, the AFEL will apply the deficit to the picks. You can't get around the deficit. You can't roll it into further year. It is what it is, so trading next year doesn't improve the deficit brought forward from this year. Which is fair.
A short explanation of Future Trading:
We can either trade our 2022 First Rounder out, or multiple later round picks, but not both. So if we can hold onto at least a Second, Third & Fourth Rounder we can trade out the 2022 First Rounder.
A club also has to use at least 2 First Round selection every 4 Years on a rolling basis. A reported on document sent to all clubs says that if a club matches a bid in the First Round that counts as usage. So although we traded out our First Rounder last year and say we did this year, because Jamarra & Darcy were First Round selections, we would not be constrained by the '2 in 4' rule and would be free to trade the 2022 First Rounder as an example.
Summary:
When the AFEL allows us to match the bid on Darcy at Pick 2, we need to show them 848 Draft Points based on the end of Round picks used to determine the deficit limit.
Leaving aside the 2022 First Rounder:
Second: 502 Draft Points
Third: 220 Draft Points
Third: 220 Draft Points (Port Adelaide)
Fourth 19 Draft Points (Lewis Young)
------------------------------------------
Total Allowable Deficit: 961
AFEL Wants: 848
Surplus: 113
That means we can trade out our 2022 First Rounder and still have the deficit covered, with Darcy at Pick 2. If we wanted to hedge against the risk of Darcy going pick 1, it's just a matter our 113 Surplus and an additional 273 Draft Points. Draft Points trades on both 32 & 44 (splitting them into 4 picks, but higher draft points) could make this up. Not having a list spots open - to draft picks taken into the draft - ratio problem with 5 picks I'd think that would be the best course of action to reduce the 2022 deficit and increase the likelihood of getting late picks back next year, while hedging on the Pick 1.
There is a rule saying clubs must use a First Rounder in 2 of every 4 years on a rolling basis. The documents sent to clubs and reported on says that if you match a bid inside the First Round that counts as using a First Rounder. That means would be free to trade it if we wanted to. Which opens up the field:
a) Trade it for a KPD
b) Trade it for another good player that comes into the market
c) Just let it burn through next draft. The deficit takes the points from the highest pick we hold. If we hold onto it, it's going to go and leave us with late picks. Not my preferred option.
d) Use the spare salary cap on a Free Agent KPD (Astbury etc. - that would cancel out any Compo from Wallis so that needs careful consideration about where our points come from) and Trade for a high pressure forward
Now, if a good player like Richards requests a trade out and we can't convince him to stay:
e) Hit up KPD Pre Agents. McStay, Barass & Moore. Why not be ambitious. With Richards or similar going to them with the future First Rounder, or getting us a late First Rounder that gets packaged into two First Rounders. All three clubs will say no, but let them knock back the picks especially if they are rebuilding. For Collingwood, although they'd not get a high compo next year as Moore is gone, they go into the draft with 3 First Rounders. If they're the club that wants to supply the future Fourth for Lewis Young so they have some mature KPD cover, I'm fine. If it seals the deal, we can talk about taking on 'some' of their Treloar debt being covered by us.
Draft:
This is the flip side. But it's perhaps not as bad as we might think.
2021:
We put Sam Darcy into our club, huge result for us, just massive. Our next available is about Pick 90. However, if Raak was bid on at say Pick 45 or 51 (i.e. Essendon's picks), then we can use Pick 90 to get him (assuming we want him). In this scenario, We've had Pick 2 & 45/51 while getting in a good Ruck & KPD. Now, assuming we want MacPherson too, if he's bid on passed Pick 56, we can use Pick 100. So we have some cover of kids we've been watching for years if we want to take them and don't sit out to the very end. Of course, either could be rookie listed if there's no bids. We could also hold open a spot for the SSP or a DFA and there's the option to revert the list from 36/6 to 38/4 (Primary vs Rookie List). With elevations of Khamis, Gardner and Sweet things aren't too bad this year in the scenario above. There's also the rookie draft looking for gold too.
2022:
So the key here is to remember that the AFEL's debt limits on deficit are based on the end of the round. Hopefully we win the premiership, but if we fall short our picks will be better and we will have more Draft Points than the actual deficit. If we've got picks from other clubs who aren't likely to seriously, seriously contend, again the picks will in real terms will be better which gives us more Draft Points. Which could mean one or two Fourth Rounders next year, as the live picks. Not huge.
But again there's the chance of NGA kids and there's father/son hopefuls too. So that can cushion the blow. If McNeil continues to develop as expected, we can elevate him next year as one of the three minimum changes. We should all expect some players who aren't getting a regular game to request a trade out and that gets us back into the draft. So I wouldn't call it dire either.
List Changes:
We lose two experienced, yet very much underperforming small/medium forwards in JJ & Wallis. A midfielder in Lipinski that can't get passed our depth and likely what the coach wants, same for Young. We don't seem to be losing things from our strengths.
Incoming means:
Ruck: Ladhams etc, English, Sweet, Darcy
KPD: Astbury/Moore etc, Keath, Gardner, Schache, Cordy
Our weaknesses are being addressed.
From the outset, this is just a theory, a proof of concept, for what a very aggressive approach to the 2021 & 2022 Trade & Draft. Nothing more, nothing less. Take or leave whatever works for you, and disagree with rest.
The AFEL laws, rules and regulations that are relevant to the draft, trade, deficit etc. are not all publicly available. Some are in the formal corporate rules (197 Pages) are public, however the General Counsel of the AFEL sends info direct to clubs that are not made public. However, some footy journalists have seen the documents and reported on them, and I have used their reporting of them to inform my analysis. As this is just one scenario (of a million that could arise) I will put in some others clubs and players to make reading this scenario a little easier. If you don't like the player, find another similarly valued player and use that if that better works for your reading.
As a prelude, our Sam Power has the ability to be very aggressive when he wants to be. For example, in 2019 we secured Bruce & Keath to fill large gaps on the list and the draft consequences were just our first rounder and then the 12th & 4th last picks in the draft. We were involved in a Future Pick Trade/Swap too.
So lets get cracking:
Delistings (4):
Jong
Martin
Hayes (R)
Cavarra (R)
Aggressive Trade 1:
Trade out our First Rounder for a Ruckman, that ideally has some draft point synergy. For illustrative purposes only, Peter Ladhams has he seems gettable. So, Ladhams for Our First & Fourth Rounders. But we want our future Fourth Rounder exchanged for Port's future Third Rounder.
Th reasoning is Ladhams isn't getting sustained senior footy at Port and can with us and we have a good pick on the table. You might think what good does our Fourth do them? Firstly, they have dibs on Jase Burgoyne who looks a good sort and they are currently looking at a deficit themselves. Our Fourth Rounder by the time Free Agency compo is factored in is zero Draft Points towards us, as we he need to match a bloody high bid. But... after Collingwood & Bulldogs both burn through around 8 picks in the First Two Picks, the shuffling down begins. That now shuffles our Fourth Rounder into a Draft Point bearing Pick for Port Adelaide. Now if there's another one or two bid on before Burgoyne (which could very well happen), Port could conceivably net about 100+ Draft Points from holding our Fourth Rounder. By the future swap, we come out ahead by about 100 Draft Points overall. Win/Win.
The wash up for us is we net a First Ruck in Ladhams, who can go forward and get about 100 extra Draft Points. This will increase our deficit limit with the AFEL.
The wash up for them is Two First Round Picks at the draft and moving closer to having Burgoyne without deficit, for a player they're not regularly playing.
Under this or a similar trade, our 2021 First Rounder is gone, and we look to trades to get us enough Draft Points this year.
Trades/Free Agent Compo (4):
Young (Future 4th Rounder)
Wallis (Third Round Compo, Pick 54) - 220 Draft Points
Johanissen - Circa Pick 44 - 362 Draft Points (or multiple later picks to a higher value)
Lipinski - Circa Pick 32 - 584 Draft Points (Sydney seems to be mentioned)
---------------------------------------------------
Total Draft Points: 1,166
Total Players Out: 6 Primary List, 2 Rookie List
Total Player Payments:
(Numbers for argument sake, except JJ's salary is actual)
JJ is on $600,000
Wally say $350,000 ($950,000)
Martin say $300,000 ($1,250,000)
Lipisnki say $250,000 ($1,500,000)
Young on say $250,000 ($1,750,000)
Jong on say $250,000 ($2,000,000)
(Rookie base salaries outside cap)
Now lets say we elevate Khamis, Gardner & Sweet and Darcy is on a rookie contract. We can trade for two very good players and not impact our TPP and money needed for next season with some good players out. But the crucial player to encourage to 'explore the market' is JJ. We simply can't pay huge money to a guy getting not a lot of possessions, tackles and .4 Goals Per game. JJ like Dahlhaus going to a better, more secure contract works for everyone really well and importantly it opens up the field for us.
Sam Darcy:
North has come out and said that they will bid on Daicos & Darcy 'for draft integrity'. Im going to read into this Darcy at Pick 2. Power Rankings from Doerre (ESPN) and Twomey (AFEL Media) has Darcy at three but the chatter of Darcy at at least Pick 2 is very real.
Pick 2 = 2,517 Draft Points - less 20% discount of 503 Draft Points = 2,014 Draft Points
Draft Point Calculation on Darcy:
Draft Points Needed: 2,014
Current Draft Points: 1,166
------------------------------
Draft Points Deficit: 848 owed in 2022
A short explanation on Draft Point Deficits:
The AFEL cap the deficit based on the Draft Points attached to Picks 18, 36, 54 & 72. But things can change as per a document sent to clubs detailing the finer points.
However, if you trade out a Pick from any round, the AFEL reduce our limit by the Draft Points in the corresponding round. However again, if you trade in future picks your deficit can be increased.
Before the 2022 Trade Period begins, the AFEL will apply the deficit to the picks. You can't get around the deficit. You can't roll it into further year. It is what it is, so trading next year doesn't improve the deficit brought forward from this year. Which is fair.
A short explanation of Future Trading:
We can either trade our 2022 First Rounder out, or multiple later round picks, but not both. So if we can hold onto at least a Second, Third & Fourth Rounder we can trade out the 2022 First Rounder.
A club also has to use at least 2 First Round selection every 4 Years on a rolling basis. A reported on document sent to all clubs says that if a club matches a bid in the First Round that counts as usage. So although we traded out our First Rounder last year and say we did this year, because Jamarra & Darcy were First Round selections, we would not be constrained by the '2 in 4' rule and would be free to trade the 2022 First Rounder as an example.
Summary:
When the AFEL allows us to match the bid on Darcy at Pick 2, we need to show them 848 Draft Points based on the end of Round picks used to determine the deficit limit.
Leaving aside the 2022 First Rounder:
Second: 502 Draft Points
Third: 220 Draft Points
Third: 220 Draft Points (Port Adelaide)
Fourth 19 Draft Points (Lewis Young)
------------------------------------------
Total Allowable Deficit: 961
AFEL Wants: 848
Surplus: 113
That means we can trade out our 2022 First Rounder and still have the deficit covered, with Darcy at Pick 2. If we wanted to hedge against the risk of Darcy going pick 1, it's just a matter our 113 Surplus and an additional 273 Draft Points. Draft Points trades on both 32 & 44 (splitting them into 4 picks, but higher draft points) could make this up. Not having a list spots open - to draft picks taken into the draft - ratio problem with 5 picks I'd think that would be the best course of action to reduce the 2022 deficit and increase the likelihood of getting late picks back next year, while hedging on the Pick 1.
There is a rule saying clubs must use a First Rounder in 2 of every 4 years on a rolling basis. The documents sent to clubs and reported on says that if you match a bid inside the First Round that counts as using a First Rounder. That means would be free to trade it if we wanted to. Which opens up the field:
a) Trade it for a KPD
b) Trade it for another good player that comes into the market
c) Just let it burn through next draft. The deficit takes the points from the highest pick we hold. If we hold onto it, it's going to go and leave us with late picks. Not my preferred option.
d) Use the spare salary cap on a Free Agent KPD (Astbury etc. - that would cancel out any Compo from Wallis so that needs careful consideration about where our points come from) and Trade for a high pressure forward
Now, if a good player like Richards requests a trade out and we can't convince him to stay:
e) Hit up KPD Pre Agents. McStay, Barass & Moore. Why not be ambitious. With Richards or similar going to them with the future First Rounder, or getting us a late First Rounder that gets packaged into two First Rounders. All three clubs will say no, but let them knock back the picks especially if they are rebuilding. For Collingwood, although they'd not get a high compo next year as Moore is gone, they go into the draft with 3 First Rounders. If they're the club that wants to supply the future Fourth for Lewis Young so they have some mature KPD cover, I'm fine. If it seals the deal, we can talk about taking on 'some' of their Treloar debt being covered by us.
Draft:
This is the flip side. But it's perhaps not as bad as we might think.
2021:
We put Sam Darcy into our club, huge result for us, just massive. Our next available is about Pick 90. However, if Raak was bid on at say Pick 45 or 51 (i.e. Essendon's picks), then we can use Pick 90 to get him (assuming we want him). In this scenario, We've had Pick 2 & 45/51 while getting in a good Ruck & KPD. Now, assuming we want MacPherson too, if he's bid on passed Pick 56, we can use Pick 100. So we have some cover of kids we've been watching for years if we want to take them and don't sit out to the very end. Of course, either could be rookie listed if there's no bids. We could also hold open a spot for the SSP or a DFA and there's the option to revert the list from 36/6 to 38/4 (Primary vs Rookie List). With elevations of Khamis, Gardner and Sweet things aren't too bad this year in the scenario above. There's also the rookie draft looking for gold too.
2022:
So the key here is to remember that the AFEL's debt limits on deficit are based on the end of the round. Hopefully we win the premiership, but if we fall short our picks will be better and we will have more Draft Points than the actual deficit. If we've got picks from other clubs who aren't likely to seriously, seriously contend, again the picks will in real terms will be better which gives us more Draft Points. Which could mean one or two Fourth Rounders next year, as the live picks. Not huge.
But again there's the chance of NGA kids and there's father/son hopefuls too. So that can cushion the blow. If McNeil continues to develop as expected, we can elevate him next year as one of the three minimum changes. We should all expect some players who aren't getting a regular game to request a trade out and that gets us back into the draft. So I wouldn't call it dire either.
List Changes:
We lose two experienced, yet very much underperforming small/medium forwards in JJ & Wallis. A midfielder in Lipinski that can't get passed our depth and likely what the coach wants, same for Young. We don't seem to be losing things from our strengths.
Incoming means:
Ruck: Ladhams etc, English, Sweet, Darcy
KPD: Astbury/Moore etc, Keath, Gardner, Schache, Cordy
Our weaknesses are being addressed.
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