Did we waste Draft Picks by picking Rejects from other clubs?

[Guido]

Re: Did we waste Draft Picks by picking Rejects from other clubs?

With Goodes I can't help but think that by round 4 last year most of thought he was a great selection.

Does/should this change anything with the overall judgement on his recruitment?

If it was the opposite, and a gun long term recruit had started off with 4 really poor games, those early games would be considered largely irrelevant wouldn't they?

Bandy, Sherman, Rawlings, they were all the beez neez four rounds into their careers with us as well. End of the day, it counted for nothing.

Players and list management decisions should really be rated on their entire career with the club and the opportunity cost.

You take into account the total contribution of a player (great/good/poor quality games, output, standing up when it counts, agreeability), and weigh it up against total cost (salary, spot on the list, footy department spend allocated to them, game time in the seniors which, if they're delisted within 20 games or 12/24 months, could be considered a waste given that might have been better to invest that experience into younger players who will be around for a flag tilt in a few years time, trade cost - who would have been picked up in their place if they weren't acquired).

Given that cost, the most important question you ask, would you do it again.

Despite their being too many recycled/fringe bulldogs pick ups to list, there are not many where the answer to that question is a yes.

[lemmon]

Re: Did we waste Draft Picks by picking Rejects from other clubs?

Are there actual stats behind those numbers you've quoted Guido or are they purely based on your observation?

[G-Mo77]

Re: Did we waste Draft Picks by picking Rejects from other clubs?

I went through the list on the way home on the train and think we could potentially lose 8 (or more) senior listed players which is a bit on the high side especially if we are likely to only promote 1 or 2 (at best) rookies.

I found this list at another site but apparently it is all our uncontracted players. As the season goes on players will sign extensions but I saw those 17 names and alarm bells started to ring in my head. 8 or more is a big possibility and that concerns me.

Matthew Boyd
Tory Dickson
Daniel Giansiracusa
Brett Goodes
Christian Howard
Shaun Higgins
Jason Johannisen
Liam Jones
Dale Morris
Robert Murphy
Daniel Pearce
Clay Smith
Koby Stevens
Jason Tutt
Easton Wood
Tom Williams
Tom Young

[ledge]

Re: Did we waste Draft Picks by picking Rejects from other clubs?

It's a big list but not a scary one, the names we might be worried about will be Signed during the year and one is retiring.

[LostDoggy]

Re: Did we waste Draft Picks by picking Rejects from other clubs?

Are there actual stats behind those numbers you've quoted Guido or are they purely based on your observation?

I'd genuinely love to read this (if it's not just opinion) also.

[ledge]

Re: Did we waste Draft Picks by picking Rejects from other clubs?

I think we could possibly delist Howard, Goodes, Pearce and johannison, Gia retired.. Murphy Boyd, Williams and Morris are certainties to stay, can't see Smith, Wood, Stevens,higgins or Young wanting to leave, Liam Jones is just starting to come good, cant see Tutt getting offers from other clubs yet, Dickson maybe.

[LostDoggy]

Re: Did we waste Draft Picks by picking Rejects from other clubs?

JJ, really?

[always right]

Re: Did we waste Draft Picks by picking Rejects from other clubs?

Come on dogs.....offer up our first round draft pick to Essendon, get this bloke across to us and play him at CHB.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/essendon-coach-mark-thompson-refuses-to-guarantee-underperforming-forward-jake-carlisle-position-in-anzac-day-team/story-fni5f6kv-1226892110887

[azabob]

Re: Did we waste Draft Picks by picking Rejects from other clubs?

Come on dogs.....offer up our first round draft pick to Essendon, get this bloke across to us and play him at CHB.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/af...-1226892110887

Agree for sure, but being essendon they would want more and plus they would probably still think we stooges them on Crameri!

[Greystache]

Re: Did we waste Draft Picks by picking Rejects from other clubs?

Agree for sure, but being essendon they would want more and plus they would probably still think we stooges them on Crameri!

I don't think he's the player I would target with a big contract. He's identical to Roughead but without the leadership. If we're to chase a key defender I'd prefer it to be more of a mobile athletic type who can offer us more flexibility

[soupman]

Re: Did we waste Draft Picks by picking Rejects from other clubs?

I found this list at another site but apparently it is all our uncontracted players. As the season goes on players will sign extensions but I saw those 17 names and alarm bells started to ring in my head. 8 or more is a big possibility and that concerns me.

Matthew Boyd
Tory Dickson
Daniel Giansiracusa
Brett Goodes
Christian Howard
Shaun Higgins
Jason Johannisen
Liam Jones
Dale Morris
Robert Murphy
Daniel Pearce
Clay Smith
Koby Stevens
Jason Tutt
Easton Wood
Tom Williams
Tom Young

I would be very surprised if 8 of them left at the end of the year.

I wouldn't think Higgins, JJ, Jones, Morris, Murphy, Smith, Stevens or Wood would be in any doubt at all.

Boyd and Young are only chances if things go really sour really quickly.

Dickson and Tutt probably only need 4-5 decent games in the seniors to snag another year.

Williams is one that could go either way depending on injuries, form and his motivation.

Giansiracusa is obviously already gone.

That leaves Howard, Pearce and Goodes as probables at this stage, and they are all half back flankers which may mean the club is reluctant to lose 3 of the same type and thus keeps one.

So really there are only 7 real candidates, and based on the faith we have seen from the coaches towards players I would be surprised if half of that 7 goes.

Couple that with a required rookie promotion if we want to keep any of our rookies (most probably Jong at this stage) and there aren't actually that many free list spots at the end of the season.

[Go_Dogs]

Re: Did we waste Draft Picks by picking Rejects from other clubs?

Absolutely Twodogs.

There's no guarantee with him or with anyone gunning it at the next level down (if there was they'd go first round), but all historical percentages suggest that he's an even money shot of being a really good player for a number of years.

Just look at the quality players on our list that originally were rookied: Morris, Boyd, Dahlhaus, Picken, JJ, Jong, Crameri, and in the past Harbrow. If players of this quality they were again there this time around (experience suggests they will have been),

Interesting post Guido.

With respect to State League players and transitioning across to become reliable senior footballers, I'd love to see a breakdown on all the numbers. If we look at a couple of rookie drafts, I might use 2012 and 2013 as recent examples, we're talking about the following players from VFL.

Tory Dickson, Sam Rowe and Orren Stephenson taken in the ND and Sam Dunell, Shane Biggs, Tom Couch, Tom Campbell, Brad Mangin, Jack Sheringham, James Magner, Malcolm Lynch, Mark Baugley, Sam Gibson, Adam Pattison, and others from the SANFL and WAFL such as Daz Pfeiffer, Lee Spurr, Cory Dell'Olio, Cam Shenton....and then the following year, Sydney took Dean Towers early, Dylan Van Unen, Matt Jones and Dean Terlich were also taken in the ND, with Leigh Osborne, Jarryd Cachia, Kyle Martin, Kyle Hartigan, Mitch Clisby, Sam Dwyer, Jack Frost, Kane Mitchell, Callum Sinclair and of course our own Brett Goodes (I've possibly missed a couple - just had a quick look through). It again looks like a few solid depth players were picked up last time (the 2014 RD), and maybe a couple who go on and become a little more than that, but it's difficult to assess so early into the season.

The strike rate of finding players who become better than depth players is still pretty low for mine, and a lot of the examples are blokes who can come in and play a year or two and take some heat off younger guys, fill a spot on the list and be a good team member until the recruitment team is able to identify a better talent or ready made player to replace them.

With the young players taken in the rookie list, again it is not an exact science and odds are against getting a Dahlhaus, a Harbrow - however as you say, we need to be taking selections and attempting to identify those types of players. That we've given our current crop of rookies the maximum amount of time is showing a lot of faith in them developing into senior players, and perhaps also that we haven't rated what's out there as a better chance of becoming senior players. I was happy to stick with Jong, whilst Austin is solid back up to have. Redpath did improve a bit over 2013, but keeping both he and Greenwood on and not having a crack at anyone was a bit disappointing.

It's an interesting debate, but overall I think we've done pretty well out of our mature aged recruits in recent times, and have (albeit usually with a lot of financial constraints) done exceptionally well out of the rookie list.

[always right]

Re: Did we waste Draft Picks by picking Rejects from other clubs?

I don't think he's the player I would target with a big contract. He's identical to Roughead but without the leadership. If we're to chase a key defender I'd prefer it to be more of a mobile athletic type who can offer us more flexibility

We clearly rate his ability differently.

[Greystache]

Re: Did we waste Draft Picks by picking Rejects from other clubs?

We clearly rate his ability differently.

And I've seen nearly every game of his career.

[Ozza]

Re: Did we waste Draft Picks by picking Rejects from other clubs?

We clearly rate his ability differently.

Yeah - have to say, I rate him pretty highly also.

I know Greystache watches a lot of Essendon - so respect his opinion.
But from what I've seen of Carlisle - he could be anything, if they just let him play centre half back, which is where he prefers to play (and thats not from media speculation...that's from Jake himself).