Phantom Draft & Expert Predictions on Dogs Pick

[Greystache]

Re: Phantom Draft & Expert Predictions on Dogs Pick

He didn't test well in most categories. Hard to say if that is somewhat expected for most guys of his height and size.

If he's tested that poorly with the frame he currently has how immobile will he be when (if) he has built up a body capable of competing with other AFL ruckmen? I don't see any point in taking ruckmen or key position players who need that much development early in the draft. At best it's a guess what they might develop into and it takes years to get there.

[Sedat]

Re: Phantom Draft & Expert Predictions on Dogs Pick

If he's tested that poorly with the frame he currently has how immobile will he be when (if) he has built up a body capable of competing with other AFL ruckmen? I don't see any point in taking ruckmen or key position players who need that much development early in the draft. At best it's a guess what they might develop into and it takes years to get there.

Maybe we're sniffing the breeze with the future potential demise of 3rd man up, where the beanpoles might become in vogue again?

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Phantom Draft & Expert Predictions on Dogs Pick

Maybe we're sniffing the breeze with the future potential demise of 3rd man up, where the beanpoles might become in vogue again?

Then we should recruit delisted ruckman, Liam McBeanpole.

Thank you. Thank you very much.

[kruder]

Re: Phantom Draft & Expert Predictions on Dogs Pick

If he's tested that poorly with the frame he currently has how immobile will he be when (if) he has built up a body capable of competing with other AFL ruckmen? I don't see any point in taking ruckmen or key position players who need that much development early in the draft. At best it's a guess what they might develop into and it takes years to get there.

I'm normally against it but reckon we can take a few more risks but your point is valid for sure. The interesting test case is Minson. He was at the club for 12 years or so and from purely a footballing perspective how many seasons did he add significant value? It would be only a hand full I'm guessing, its a long road for sure...

[Mofra]

Re: Phantom Draft & Expert Predictions on Dogs Pick

I'm normally against it but reckon we can take a few more risks but your point is valid for sure. The interesting test case is Minson. He was at the club for 12 years or so and from purely a footballing perspective how many seasons did he add significant value? It would be only a hand full I'm guessing, its a long road for sure...

This - for a pick 20 he was the best ruckman in the AFL in the one year we were putrid and played a style that suited his style.
We actually had Ben Hudson under our noses, passed on him, then traded him from the Crows as an immediate upgrade on Minno.

I like Minno but let's be real here: pick 20 on a guy who spent half his career on the fringes (and he was drafted as a KPF anyway, not a ruckman) is barely a fair return and we could have traded a later pick for a ruckman who would have performed just as well (Ben Hudson) or a later pick for a more developed kid who could reach the same heights (Tom Campbell).

Even Roughy was a later pick and he filled in as fullback for a couple of years.

[choconmientay]

Re: Phantom Draft & Expert Predictions on Dogs Pick

Summary of some of the links posted over the past few days:
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23 Nov 2016 Callum Twomey's 2016 Phantom Draft

http://www.afl.com.au/news/2016-11-23/callum-twomeys-2016-phantom-draft

BRETT ANDERSON (Posted By Gary)
23 Nov 2016 https://www.sen.com.au/news/2016/11/...fl-mock-draft/

Knightmare's updated AFL phantom draft: Who goes where, and when? (Posted by BT)

http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/18053132/knightmare-updated-2016-afl-phantom-draft

23 Nov 2016 2016 AFL Draft: Phantom draft final edition – ticking off the top 25 By Josh Elliott

http://www.theroar.com.au/2016/11/23/2016-afl-draft-phantom-draft-final-edition/

The Age, Emma Quayle:
NOVEMBER 18 2016 http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-new...16-gsqckj.html
NOVEMBER 20 2016 http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-new...18-gsson1.html

November 17, 2016 ( posted by Bulldog4life )

https://afldraftcentral.com.au/2016/11/17/matt-balmers-early-november-2016-phantom-draft/

Titus O'Reilly ( Posted by The Doctor)

http://titusoreily.com/easily-the-wo...review-ever-2/

FoxFooty, 21 November 2016, RILEY BEVERIDGE

http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/fox-footys-2016-phantom-draft-the-firstround-draft-prospects-and-where-theyre-potentially-headed/news-story/b2de3e50af7ed3dc7ed0456ac21396ae

24 November 2016. By Riley Beveridge

http://www.foxsports.com.au/afl/afl-phantom-draft-2016-the-top-50-mock-picks/news-story/6ca3a4b7d10331c3a6d9ed5c9222a48e?from=public_rss

SAM LANDSBERGER, Herald Sun November 19, 2016

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/afl/phantom-draft-top20-plus-whos-in-the-mix-for-late-selections-at-collingwood-hawthorn-and-more/news-story/7bacd97aec3364ab17233da8cb28db0a

AFL DRAFTFP 2016 Phantom Draft: Matt Palf November 23, 201

http://footyprophet.com/fp-2016-phantom-draft-the-review/

Last one is out of the ordinary, tipping us taking with first pick:
19: Josh Rotham | West Perth |192cm | 79kg | DEF

Not sure what to make out of it.

[comrade]

Re: Phantom Draft & Expert Predictions on Dogs Pick

This - for a pick 20 he was the best ruckman in the AFL in the one year we were putrid and played a style that suited his style.
We actually had Ben Hudson under our noses, passed on him, then traded him from the Crows as an immediate upgrade on Minno.

I like Minno but let's be real here: pick 20 on a guy who spent half his career on the fringes (and he was drafted as a KPF anyway, not a ruckman) is barely a fair return and we could have traded a later pick for a ruckman who would have performed just as well (Ben Hudson) or a later pick for a more developed kid who could reach the same heights (Tom Campbell).

Even Roughy was a later pick and he filled in as fullback for a couple of years.

I just hate drafting rucks inside the top couple of rounds. Decent ones are found as late picks/rookies/delisted free agents/cheap trades that it seems a waste of resources to use a premium pick on one, given our game plan doesn't really require a gun ruck.

[Axe Man]

Re: Phantom Draft & Expert Predictions on Dogs Pick

Just on the drafting of ruckmen, there was an interesting article on premiership ruckmen the other day:

Top AFL clubs are letting ruckmen develop elsewhere rather than selecting them in the draft

THE premiership pattern for ruckmen is clear.

They should develop elsewhere and be purchased in October from another club, or they should arrive at minimal cost through the rookie draft.

A Champion Data study shows that just four ruckmen have been taken in the national draft and tasted glory with that team in the past decade.

And they are hardly household names, with Jordan Roughead, Max Bailey, Trent West and Brent Renouf bucking the trend.

It leads to a fascinating question at Friday’s draft.

How early does All-Australian Tim English go?

Many believe the West Australian belongs in the top 10 and experts say he is the best ruck prospect in some time.

English stood just 188cm in Year 9, but will enter the system at 205cm having played in nearly every position, from full-back to attack.

English, 19, is a year older than most draftees and as mobile as some midfielders, triggering comparisons to Dean Cox.

In English’s words: “I’m a ruckman who can play that kick behind the ball, read the play and try to cut off opposition attacks”.

But who picks him?

“I would only take a ruck if I had multiple picks in the top 20, because stats prove they are too often hit or miss,” one recruiter said.

“On that scenario, the Suns or Port this year.”

Another scout warned about the patience required with English, but said his value was inflated by the small ruck market.

“He’s a very good player,” the scout said.

“You rarely see a ruckman with that ball-getting ability and he makes good decisions.”

Champion’s study revealed that since 2000 there have been 19 rucks taken in the first round.

They have combined for zero Brownlow Medals, zero best-and-fairests and just one All-Australian selection, Nic Naitanui in 2012.

In comparison, the 19 ruckmen selected directly after that group are as decorated as a Christmas tree.

They have scooped two Brownlow Medals, seven best-and-fairests and 13 All-Australian honours.

But even Champion rate English highly, placing him No. 17 in its draft power rankings.

English’s average of 16 disposals made him the best ball-winning ruckman in both the WAFL colts and reserves this season.

And there will always be exceptions — last year Jacob Weitering became the first key defender taken at No. 1 since Darren Gaspar (1993).

Greater Western Sydney passed up Brodie Grundy five times in 2012, but even the Giants are a known fan of English.

Grundy was touted as a top-five pick, only to fall to No. 18 — the first of three consecutive Collingwood picks.

Nine of the past 10 premiership teams have included at least one ruckman acquired in a trade.

And the ruck role is ever changing.

When Luke Beveridge arrived at the Western Bulldogs, Jordan Roughead was full-back, Tom Boyd was expected to become a monster forward and Will Minson was the All-Australian ruckman 12 months earlier.

Minson’s career quickly faded as Beveridge instead moulded Roughead and Boyd into a premiership partnership.

So should clubs believed to be considering English — led by Gold Coast, Fremantle, West Coast and Port Adelaide — follow the proven formula and instead bank the best midfielder?

Or is this kid simply so good he is worth the high investment?

ODD ONES OUT

Premiership ruckmen taken in the national draft and developed by that club in the past decade

2016 — Jordan Roughead (pick 30 in 2008)

2013 — Max Bailey (pick 18 in 2005)

2011 — Trent West (pick 31 in 2005)

2008 — Brent Renouf (pick 24 in 2008)

… AND THE REST

2016 — Tom Boyd (traded from GWS)

2015 — David Hale (traded from North Melbourne), Ben McEvoy (traded from St Kilda)

2014 — Hale and McEvoy

2013 — Hale

2012 — Shame Mumford (traded from Geelong, rookie) and Mike Pyke (rookie)

2011 — Brad Ottens (traded from Richmond)

2010 — Darren Jolly (traded from Sydney, rookie) and Leigh Brown (recycled from Fremantle)

2009 — Ottens and Mark Blake (father-son)

2008 — Robbie Campbell (rookie)

2007 — Steven King (16-year-old concession selection) and Ottens

[Mofra]

Re: Phantom Draft & Expert Predictions on Dogs Pick

Quigley's take on English. Every article mentioned he plays behind the ball - we need one that plays forward when resting:

27. Tim English

Call me old fashioned but I actually like my rucks to actually be able to ruck. Its great if they might qualify to be a C grade midfielder like English does but ultimately you want to the win the taps and English is poor in that aspect of the game. He is overaged and weak in the body and often does not even compete in the ruck contest. I usually rate rucks ahead of most people, including the AFL recruitment community, but I just am not onboard with English.

As mentioned English is overaged and still very thin, particularly in the upper body. His lower body is showing signs that he might be able to put on some bulk but I do not see him ever being an overpowering ruck. Given his late growth spurt it is possible he fills out more than I expect but I am expecting him to always be on the thin side. At 205cm though he has very good height and given one of his strengths is his fluid movement around the contest and the ground more generally I think the team who drafts him might not want him to bulk up too much and risk losing some of that lateral movement.

What gets talked up more than anything else with English is his skills and they are certainly a lot better than most rucks his age. His handballing is quite good and he is a ruck who is not afraid to kick the ball. He makes good decisions and his execution is usually good. He will miss a target from time to time but by the same token he can at times make a kick a ruck has no place making. His hands are also often talked up for being exceptionally clean but I think that aspect of his game is overrated. He finished very close to the bottom in the clean hands test and whilst I don't think he is that bad I would rate him somewhere in the middle of the pack with his hands.

Athletically English is below average even for a ruck. He struggles to get off the ground and he is quite glacial over the first 5m. He finished last in the agility test and his repeat sprint was in the bottom 13th percentile. In the endurance tests he was okay. His 13.3 in the beep test was not great but his 10.55 in the 3km was decent for a ruck.

English works back into the defensive hole pretty well in traditional ruck style and reads it pretty competently coming in. Where he is at his best though is working into space on the wing. I do not think he is a good mark of the ball but he gets to space better than most rucks and he makes himself available to be used. In a contested marking situation his lack of body strength is really telling. He is moved around very easily even by smaller opponents and I would consider his hands poor in contested marking situations. When they throw him forward he looks lost and is really ineffective. He just seems to have no idea where he should be, where he should run and how to make best use of his height. He might well improve with coaching but he is a very long way from being someone who a team can throw forward to give them goals.

Overall English has some nice abilities but people seem to be overlooking some very material holes in his game. Grundy was a much more complete prospect and he went at 18 from memory. For me English is a second round prospect.

[Twodogs]

Re: Phantom Draft & Expert Predictions on Dogs Pick

Do we need a ruckman that rests forward. We are already struggling to fit everyone into our kick ass forward line of all abilities. We'd be better off with a ruckman who covers in defence when he's resting.


I also don't like the idea of drafting a ruckman with our first two picks.

[choconmientay]

Re: Phantom Draft & Expert Predictions on Dogs Pick

Twomey's late mail

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2016-11-24/callum-twomeys-late-mail-draft-bolter-keeps-bolting

[chef]

Re: Phantom Draft & Expert Predictions on Dogs Pick

Is Quayles out yet?

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Phantom Draft & Expert Predictions on Dogs Pick

Twomey's late mail

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2016-11-24/...-keeps-bolting

So no change from Cal.

He's got us wanting the English Cox double. By the by, I'm pretty sure that's the pick up line the lads from Wham used in the 80's.

[GVGjr]

Re: Phantom Draft & Expert Predictions on Dogs Pick

Is Quayles out yet?

Later tonight I believe

[comrade]

Re: Phantom Draft & Expert Predictions on Dogs Pick

Landsberger' is behind a pay wall.