Bugger it, don't trade Pick 1

[Bulldog Joe]

Re: Bugger it, don't trade Pick 1

Watching a few replays today, the odd quarter here and there and I thought you know what, we have done very well with pick one over the past few years:

2018 - Bailey Smith
2017 - Aaron Naughton
2016 - Tim English
2015 - Josh Dunkley (round 2)
2014 - Toby Mclean (round 2 )
2013 - The Bont
2012 - Stringer (oh well), but we had the next pick - Jack Macrae

I am against trading pick 1 unless we picked up a Nat Fyfe type.

Lets keep pick 1.

We truly have done well with our first pick, but your list does not support your point.

In 2014 and 2015 we traded out of round 1. McLean and Dunkley were both round 2 selections.

The real need is to actually choose wisely and make sure the picks we do have count.

[Bornadog]

Re: Bugger it, don't trade Pick 1

We truly have done well with our first pick, but your list does not support your point.

In 2014 and 2015 we traded out of round 1. McLean and Dunkley were both round 2 selections.

The real need is to actually choose wisely and make sure the picks we do have count.

Our first pick has been excellent over the past 6 to 7 years and we have done extremely well.

I agree never say never, but the player coming in has to be special to give up our first pick.

[Mofra]

Re: Bugger it, don't trade Pick 1

It’s because we’ve nailed so many early picks that we’re now in a perfext position to top up, especially when we’ve got some NGA gems tied to us next year.

Yep, this.
Our age profile is just too young, I'm happy to trade for mature talent considering we probably get the equivalent of 2-3 first round talents in next year.

[Happy Days]

Re: Bugger it, don't trade Pick 1

I live by the while never say never thing so I'm always open to trading our first round pick but i don't believe we've been linked with anyone that warrants a first round pick this season

I speak in absolutes because this is the internet and sometimes you have to shout the loudest to be heard. Of course if Carlton offer us Pat Cripps for pick 8 we say yes. But we shouldn’t “put the pick on the table” or whatever because generally if you have a pick giving you access to elite talent then in all likelihood you need elite talent.

[Missing Dog]

Re: Bugger it, don't trade Pick 1

Surely when it gets to our pick the first thing we need to think who will be available ?? W I'll there be a h
Key back , forward or outside skilled mid ??? If not you use the pick to upgrade our list!!!. Now if we can t upgrade our list lets not just park our 1.7 mill lets use it to front load on our up coming stars and when others come out of contract we will have cash for them as well.we find ourselves with I believe more a grade talent that we have ever had and I for one want to build around them and keep them here.

[mjp]

Re: Bugger it, don't trade Pick 1

I like this when it comes to drafting, developing, trading, personnel, assumptions, myths and everything else:

https://twitter.com/billbarnwell/status/1167514848562991104?s=20

Things that are all true about the Patriots:
- They're the most successful org in the NFL
- They miss on a similar percentage of their picks to everyone else in the league
- They get more shots than anybody else because they acquire extra picks
- Their executives get hired to be GMs because people think they have special insight
- Those execs then do exactly the opposite of what the Patriots actually do well and then fail
- They have excellent talent developers in Belichick + Scarnecchia

In other words:

1. The draft is a crapshoot.
2. Get lots of picks and give them a chance to succeed. [Coach for a specific role, give an opportunity.]
3. If it doesn't work out, no hard feelings - move on with another player.
4. Rinse, repeat.

[comrade]

Re: Bugger it, don't trade Pick 1

I like this when it comes to drafting, developing, trading, personnel, assumptions, myths and everything else:

https://twitter.com/billbarnwell/status/1167514848562991104?s=20

Things that are all true about the Patriots:
- They're the most successful org in the NFL
- They miss on a similar percentage of their picks to everyone else in the league
- They get more shots than anybody else because they acquire extra picks
- Their executives get hired to be GMs because people think they have special insight
- Those execs then do exactly the opposite of what the Patriots actually do well and then fail
- They have excellent talent developers in Belichick + Scarnecchia

In other words:

1. The draft is a crapshoot.
2. Get lots of picks and give them a chance to succeed. [Coach for a specific role, give an opportunity.]
3. If it doesn't work out, no hard feelings - move on with another player.
4. Rinse, repeat.

So it’s less about getting top end picks and more about getting MORE picks, spread out throughout the draft? And then not holding on to drafted players for too long, to allow for the next batch to come through?

How does that influence your thoughts on giving up top 20 picks for established talent? If we were to give up say pick 12-14 (wherever it ends up this year) for Bruce & multiple 2nd/3rd round picks? We fill a need & we get a few extra rolls at the craps table.

It feels like WC do this quite well, they always seem to end of with multiple 2nd/3rd round picks each year.

[GVGjr]

Re: Bugger it, don't trade Pick 1

Our draft history would suggest we are doing a good job and our recent trade performance has been productive.
I think we can still strike a good balance and I think our approach is a bit more than dumb luck

[Bornadog]

Re: Bugger it, don't trade Pick 1

Our draft history would suggest we are doing a good job and our recent trade performance has been productive.
I think we can still strike a good balance and I think our approach is a bit more than dumb luck

Spot on GVGjr

[Dancin' Douggy]

Re: Bugger it, don't trade Pick 1

Spot on GVGjr

Yes our drafting has really been brilliant of late. Compared to the 'bad old days'.

[FrediKanoute]

Re: Bugger it, don't trade Pick 1

Yes our drafting has really been brilliant of late. Compared to the 'bad old days'.

That's they key. Our drafting has been good, spot on almost since 2012. Before that we were a bit of a basket case. The thing with high draft picks is that they are boom-bust. They are either A grade players or a bust. By bust I mean that they may have a decent AFL career, but they don't hit the high's that is expected.

Taking multiple 2nd and 3rd rounders spreads the risk. There will most likely be a performance ceiling but the downside cost is not as significant. For every Bailey Smith/Marcus Bontempelli, you have Caleb daniels, McLean's, Dunkley's, Dale's, etc that enhance the group.

[The Doctor]

Re: Bugger it, don't trade Pick 1

There will be some fantastic young footballers available at our 1st pick this year so keeping it is an excellent option. I wouldn't like to see us use it on guys going into the back end of their careers like Bruce or Keath. That doesn't mean I'm opposed to recruiting them. Just not with our 1st.

I would want to be satisfied we could get minimum 100 games + for a player with exposed form that suits our style & can add something we need but still has his best years to come. So a very good player under 25 would be a key criteria. Florent for example. Not many of these become available. So use it on the kids if thats the case.

[GVGjr]

Re: Bugger it, don't trade Pick 1

Yes our drafting has really been brilliant of late. Compared to the 'bad old days'.

We've typically maintained early picks in fact a couple of years back we strengthened our first round position by adding an extra pick and then we traded for Schache.

I do think however, we need to acknowledge that you can't build a list purely on early picks and that every few years or so you need to view the trades option as being the primary focus.

This year trading for a couple of experienced players and even using early picks to do so seems to be a solid approach to me.

I think clubs do a good job with their recruiting but the downside at the moment is the go home factor that is a plague to the league at the moment.

[Go_Dogs]

Re: Bugger it, don't trade Pick 1

I'm a big believer in keeping our early draft picks.

We aren't going to be a destination club to recruit mature A grade superstars so it's imperative we draft and develop them. If we want to have a number of A grade players, our best chance is through early draft picks. If we end up with a pick outside of the first 10-15 picks, I'm happier to use that on a good needs based trade if it makes us a better side for a 3-5 year period and we are going to be competing for finals.

Bont, Jacko, Naughty, English and Smith are/can all be those players.

[Twodogs]

Re: Bugger it, don't trade Pick 1

We've typically maintained early picks in fact a couple of years back we strengthened our first round position by adding an extra pick and then we traded for Schache.

I do think however, we need to acknowledge that you can't build a list purely on early picks and that every few years or so you need to view the trades option as being the primary focus.

This year trading for a couple of experienced players and even using early picks to do so seems to be a solid approach to me.

I think clubs do a good job with their recruiting but the downside at the moment is the go home factor that is a plague to the league at the moment.

I used to be a big believer in that saying about it not being possible to have enough good footballers on your list, but a few years ago after watching GWS over 2015/2016 it occured to me that you need grunt as well. You need kids who have struggled to get on a list and who will do what it takes to succeed. A guy the coach can say "I've got a plan for you today" to and know that player will carry that plan out to the coaches requirements and not go ball chasing or get distracted.