Proactive Poaching

[Bulldog Revolution]

Re: Proactive Poaching

I just read the fox sports full detail on it. These are the two take aways for me:

St Kilda was said to be happy to trade pick 28 for Josh Bruce (Swans also happy with 28 for Jones). -- Are they really going to *!*!*!*! themselves over Pick 32 (only 4 spots in the later second round)? No. So the deal gets done for Pick 32, unless we find a minor bump for them. Yippee, this one looks good.

Adelaide are working on their side to get the best deal for a trade, but being stupid about their request. This is no better than their opening offer. When reality sets in that Sam Power isn't a walkover, they'll take pick 44. They should've tried on the trade but only 13 & 44 (not 13, 32 & 51). Dodoro Jr is doing well at making an arse of himself.

Love your work BT

It’s pretty stupid posturing on a player they don’t want for a four pick upgrade / it makes sense for us to hold our ground here - they do not want to keep him

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Proactive Poaching

Love your work BT

It’s pretty stupid posturing on a player they don’t want for a four pick upgrade / it makes sense for us to hold our ground here - they do not want to keep him

I was really heartened that St Kilda are happy at (or near) Pick 28. And moreso that Sydney are, as it seems that Bruce & Jones are linked. I'm looking forward to adding Bruce to what was almost the highest scoring forwardline this year.

[hujsh]

Re: Proactive Poaching

Any thoughts on this trade scenario?

https://www.theroar.com.au/2019/10/14/five-go-to-st-kilda-how-the-saints-win-an-up-hill-battle-in-six-trades/

Relevant to us is:

Put together Bruce, the 2020 second-round pick obtained for Geelong, and St Kilda’s own 2020 second-round pick, and swap it to the Dogs for their 2020 first-rounder and pick 53 this year

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Proactive Poaching

This was my guess on the four club trade that Sam Power was pushing.

Reporting today was that St Kilda & Sydney are happy with Pick 28 if it done through Adelaide. This model is Pick 29. So we can lock them in

Port: 13, 36 DVI (51 & 53) - for - 18 (Howard & Ryder), 29
Dogs: Bruce (29), 18 & keep 32 - for - 13, 51 & 53
Swans: 29 - for - Zak Jones
Saints: Jones, Howard, Ryder - for - Bruce/Pick 29, Pick 18

Port get a pick in before 18 where F/S Mead may be bid, and pick 36 in points still cover Mead with later 60’s picks. Ensures them 3 x 1sts (inc. Mead). They should sign on to this.
Dogs get Bruce for a trade down 13 to 18, 51 & 53. I'm happy.
Swans apparently happy to take this aspect of the deal
Saints flip Bruce into Zak Jones, and use pick 18 on Howard & Ryder. Apparently happy with the Bruce pick aspect.

Assuming I'm remotely close, three clubs are happy to sign off and Port has no reason not to be happy or not sign off.

Before dogs: 13, 32, 44, 51 & 53, 89
After dogs: 18, 32, 44, 89 & Bruce

Keath Option 1: Pick 44 - Picks 18, 32, 89 & Bruce, Keath
Keath Option 2: Pick 32 - Picks 18, 44, 89 & Bruce, Keath
Keath Option 3: Picks 18 & 44 - Picks 23 & 49 - Picks 23, 32, 49, 89 & Bruce, Keath. (Picks 32, 49 = DVI 21. Freo may be open to trade 22 we can find a Pick 60'ish pick to add more points to a 130-150 point win. If we can find it: Picks 22 & 23, 89 Bruce & Keath)

Looking at the Keath options above, a left field idea that others have raised but also get a super low deal on Keath.

We’ve missed out on ruck insurance possibly. Experienced tall players, about $200,000. If we were interested in Jenkins as a ruck insurance option, or if his form warrants it as a forward. He’d play for just $200,000 in Victoria, or stay at Adelaide on $600,000 for two more years. What’s having that $1.2M contract off their books worth in trade terms? (Like us & Jade Rawlings) If it meant they took pick 44 on Keath, but, sent back Carlton’s 2020 4th for Jenkins, that’s at least interesting. We secure Keath cheap, we get paid a future late pick to take on Jenkins as cheap depth/ruck insurance option. They save a ton of cash.

This isn’t a sexy trade, but could he do Smith/Nicholls type as cheap ruck depth? Probably. Even still, I’d want something back for it. Even though he’s $400,000 over two years. At Adelaide he’s $1,200,000 over two years. If they’re prepared to offer a favourable trade to save themselves from that, I’d listen. Two years of support for Tim (& Sweet) and forward depth (a year educating JUH at Footscray) on about 1/2 the average afl wage isn’t crazy ONLY if we get Keath cheap and a little something for Jenkins.

We know they don’t want him, or him them, and they don’t want the $1.2M in payments. I wonder if this serves our trade interests on Keath and for cheap ruck insurance (& KPF depth).

[AshMac]

Re: Proactive Poaching

Any thoughts on this trade scenario?

https://www.theroar.com.au/2019/10/14/five-go-to-st-kilda-how-the-saints-win-an-up-hill-battle-in-six-trades/

Relevant to us is:

I don’t mind this actually - though it looks relatively neutral

Back of the envelope, and loaded with assumptions:

Dogs finish 6th - pick 15 (including 2 compo picks which always seem to happen) is 1,112 points

Saints - bottom 4, argument sake finish 12th. Second pick is 27 w compo - 703 points

Cats - top 4, 2nd for argument sake - pick 33 - 563 points

In this scenario:
Out - 1,112
In - 1,266

We slip below 6th in the above scenario (out of the 8) and it starts to look worse. Suppose that’s the risk and reward.

But - we factor in pick 13 in the draft, Bruce and Keathy George and it seems a safer bet.

[Bornadog]

Re: Proactive Poaching

I wouldn't be touching any future picks. Next year we will need all the points we can get.

[The Doctor]

Re: Proactive Poaching

If we cant get Bruce with 32 and Keath with 45 respectively how about this?


1. Dogs trade picks 45, 51 & 53 (839 points) to Port for picks 29 & 66 (733 points)

Port gain extra draft points to secure F/S Jackson Mead expected to be a late 1st or 2nd round pick and move up in the draft.


2. Dogs trade 32 to Adelaide for Keath & pick 49 or Future 3rd.

Adelaide gain a shift up the draft order which is a stated desire of theirs.


3. pick 29 now on traded to Saints for Bruce


So if everyone agrees the outcome for the Dogs


In: Bruce, Keath and pick 49 or Future 3rd, 66

Out: Picks, 32, 45. 51, 53


We hang onto 13 & maintain all our future picks.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Proactive Poaching

I wouldn't be touching any future picks. Next year we will need all the points we can get.

Too much risk in that for me. We could get more points, and we could lose points. Putting our draft hand next in the hands of two other clubs feels risky.

[GVGjr]

Re: Proactive Poaching

If we cant get Bruce with 32 and Keath with 45 respectively how about this?


1. Dogs trade picks 45, 51 & 53 (839 points) to Port for picks 29 & 66 (733 points)

Port gain extra draft points to secure F/S Jackson Mead expected to be a late 1st or 2nd round pick and move up in the draft.


2. Dogs trade 32 to Adelaide for Keath & pick 49 or Future 3rd.

Adelaide gain a shift up the draft order which is a stated desire of theirs.


3. pick 29 now on traded to Saints for Bruce


So if everyone agrees the outcome for the Dogs


In: Bruce, Keath and pick 49 or Future 3rd, 66

Out: Picks, 32, 45. 51, 53


We hang onto 13 & maintain all our future picks.

I like it Doc,

Would prefer a stronger had in 2020 if that could be achieved. I think we need a bit more than just one extra future 3rd rounder

[Mofra]

Re: Proactive Poaching

I wouldn't be touching any future picks. Next year we will need all the points we can get.

If we get a points surplus that helps us though, as per the above scenario.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Proactive Poaching

If we cant get Bruce with 32 and Keath with 45 respectively how about this?


1. Dogs trade picks 45, 51 & 53 (839 points) to Port for picks 29 & 66 (733 points)

Port gain extra draft points to secure F/S Jackson Mead expected to be a late 1st or 2nd round pick and move up in the draft.


2. Dogs trade 32 to Adelaide for Keath & pick 49 or Future 3rd.

Adelaide gain a shift up the draft order which is a stated desire of theirs.


3. pick 29 now on traded to Saints for Bruce


So if everyone agrees the outcome for the Dogs


In: Bruce, Keath and pick 49 or Future 3rd, 66

Out: Picks, 32, 45. 51, 53


We hang onto 13 & maintain all our future picks.

I don’t mind it. The only question is whether Dodoro Jr will trade Keath for a 17 pick upgrade. Picks 32 & 66 for Keath & 49 is tempting for them. Pick 32 in, with a downgrade of 49 to 66 (17 spots). Leaves us 13, 49, 89, Bruce & Keath.

Current: 13, 32, 45, 51, 53, 89
This: 13, 49, 89 — Keath & Bruce for 32, 45 down into 49, 51 & 53. Keep Pick 13.

Looks very handy.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Proactive Poaching

McClure saying St Kilda will give Port Picks 12 & 18 - for - Pick 10 Players & Howard/Ryder.

Pick 18 is too close for F/S Mead. This really opens up for us their Picks 18 & 29 for our Picks 13 & Pick 36 DVI (Picks 51, 53)

Leaves us: Picks 18, 29 (Bruce), 32, 44 (Keath), 89

[hujsh]

Re: Proactive Poaching

McClure saying St Kilda will give Port Picks 12 & 18 - for - Pick 10 Players & Howard/Ryder.

Pick 18 is too close for F/S Mead. This really opens up for us their Picks 18 & 29 for our Picks 13 & Pick 36 DVI (Picks 51, 53)

Leaves us: Picks 18, 29 (Bruce), 32, 44 (Keath), 89

Really not a fan of downgrading 13 unless we see some sort of real benefit. Not convinced the above provides that tbh

[The Doctor]

Re: Proactive Poaching

We must have a target for pick 13 that we really want.

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

Re: Proactive Poaching

McClure saying St Kilda will give Port Picks 12 & 18 - for - Pick 10 Players & Howard/Ryder.

Pick 18 is too close for F/S Mead. This really opens up for us their Picks 18 & 29 for our Picks 13 & Pick 36 DVI (Picks 51, 53)

Leaves us: Picks 18, 29 (Bruce), 32, 44 (Keath), 89

I'm not sure we really need to downgrade pick 13. We'd really need to benefit significantly in doing so, and I'm not sure the above is attractive enough to do it.