Pick 4 - what's the right price?

[G-Mo77]

Re: Pick 4 - what's the right price?

Yeah, this is the response I was looking for. So you are so sure it is wrong, not so much that you know better, but perhaps that you know they should be gone? I am not one for being so absolute but that's me.

It's only a good decision if we play out of our skins next season. Do you honestly expect us to make finals or go deep into them in 2024? They don't know that either. They're gambling.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Pick 4 - what's the right price?

Are we even sure Croft will nominate us? Is he waiting to get an assurance from us that will hinge on the picks being traded?

Wouldn’t it be amazing if we did all this and he suddenly decided against coming.

I think we can infer he’s coming. We in part traded for points as we’ve said we won’t use those picks anyway. He’s coming.

[G-Mo77]

Re: Pick 4 - what's the right price?

I think we can infer he’s coming. We in part traded for points as we’ve said we won’t use those picks anyway. He’s coming.

Those 3rds will be gone for Coffield/Harmes. Should this happen of course.

[josie]

Re: Pick 4 - what's the right price?

Yeh it doesn't really matter to me what the plan is for 2024 - if we trade Baz and English and get three new first rounders, or whatever else. If that happened, we should be having those picks PLUS our future first which we are giving up needlessly.

I suppose it?s gambling but if we are pretty sure one or both Smith and English are going after this year (presumably more likely with a poor year) then I?m a tiny bit eased about giving up our future first. If we pick up a game changer - and I do trust our club regarding high draft picks seeing as we have had a very good record on that front - we?ll all be lauding Grant and Power etc. Let?s pray that?s the case.

Plus if we have a good year then presumably Smith & English if they leave will be worth more.

[Topdog]

Re: Pick 4 - what's the right price?

If we believe 4 looks elite and 10 and 17 relatively meh, should we have just accepted our hand if Suns said not enough? Going through possibilities with those who seem certain if it's wrong.

Its a big gamble, F1 next year good be even more elite. If we think 10 and 17 are meh we also could trade them out for depth.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Pick 4 - what's the right price?

Those 3rds will be gone for Coffield/Harmes. Should this happen of course.

Maybe a F3. But we need the points this year. I’ve been trying to work out how we’d get the points, and this is how.

[hujsh]

Re: Pick 4 - what's the right price?

If we believe 4 looks elite and 10 and 17 relatively meh, should we have just accepted our hand if Suns said not enough? Going through possibilities with those who seem certain if it's wrong.

If they say not eough that's when you look at pick swaps and adding in future seconds/thirds. You don't add a third first rounder that could genuinely be just about anywhere from 4-15.

It's strange we are always SO conservative with our first round picks. We have a history of ruling them out of all trades and always trying to add top end talent to the list. It feels like suddenly we just aren't valuing it for next year for some reason OR we think we're getting the next coming of Bont (or a player worth 3 first round picks)

[Rocco Jones]

Re: Pick 4 - what's the right price?

Its a big gamble, F1 next year good be even more elite. If we think 10 and 17 are meh we also could trade them out for depth.

You're one of many here I respect. Love this forum.

So laying it out here with those so strongly against it.

1/ how open are you to it possibly being a clever gamble? (we don't have all the info etc)

2/ if answer to Q1 is non-existent to low, do you want Power and/or Grant gone?

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Re: Pick 4 - what's the right price?

If we believe 4 looks elite and 10 and 17 relatively meh, should we have just accepted our hand if Suns said not enough? Going through possibilities with those who seem certain if it's wrong.

Yeah the opportunity cost to doing the suns trade is pick 10 and 17 and F1. There's probably no world where we can get pick 4 for 10 and 17 (plus a future 2nd or 3rd or whatever minimal change noone will care about).

So it's either:
Pick 4 and Croft minus 2024 R1 OR
Pick 10, 17 AND 2024 R1.

I'm still going the 2nd option. Watson isn't worth this. He's a tiny forward not too dissimilar to Weightman.

[The Adelaide Connection]

Re: Pick 4 - what's the right price?

I think we can infer he’s coming. We in part traded for points as we’ve said we won’t use those picks anyway. He’s coming.

You would think so. So why the stalling of the announcement? Is it about not showing our hand or something?

I am sure there must be a reason, but it feels like a lukewarm response to wanting to come from the outside looking in. Normally you’d expect him to nominate and be doing press about how excited he is at the proposition of coming.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Re: Pick 4 - what's the right price?

I suppose it?s gambling but if we are pretty sure one or both Smith and English are going after this year (presumably more likely with a poor year) then I?m a tiny bit eased about giving up our future first, plus if it?s a middling or lousy year it will be a lower pick. If we pick up a game changer - and I do trust our club regarding high draft picks seeing as we have had a very good record on that front - we?ll all be lauding Grant and Power etc. Let?s pray that?s the case.

Plus if we have a good year then presumably Smith & English if they leave will be worth more.

What if next year's 1st rounder turns out a star?

This is where trading picks becomes extremely difficult to assess value. Are we trading for a Paddy Dow this year at the expense of a Petrcca or Bont next year? Or could it be the other way around? Impossible to know. It seems pretty clear we're after Watson who I don't believe is going to be a game changer for us.

[hujsh]

Re: Pick 4 - what's the right price?

Yeah the opportunity cost to doing the suns trade is pick 10 and 17 and F1. There's probably no world where we can get pick 4 for 10 and 17 (plus a future 2nd or 3rd or whatever minimal change noone will care about).

So it's either:
Pick 4 and Croft minus 2024 R1 OR
Pick 10, 17 AND 2024 R1.

I'm still going the 2nd option. Watson isn't worth this. He's a tiny forward not too dissimilar to Weightman.

There's also the possibility we end with 10 (12?), Croft and 2024 1st. Or Croft, 17 (19-21?) and 2024 1st if we went option 2.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Pick 4 - what's the right price?

You would think so. So why the stalling of the announcement? Is it about not showing our hand or something?

I am sure there must be a reason, but it feels like a lukewarm response to wanting to come from the outside looking in. Normally you’d expect him to nominate and be doing press about how excited he is at the proposition of coming.

He did that the other day and he sounded excited. We could’ve been waiting for the Pick 4 to be finalised. Or he could be looking for a longer contract (FS can negotiate that). No way we accept the deal if he’s not coming as we won’t use the picks (only their points).

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Re: Pick 4 - what's the right price?

There's also the possibility we end with 10 (12?), Croft and 2024 1st. Or Croft, 17 (19-21?) and 2024 1st if we went option 2.

Yep. If we assume we bring in Croft:
Pick 4 and Croft minus 2024 R1 OR
Pick 10, Croft AND 2024 R1.

I'd be surprised if a club bid on Croft before Pick 15. But clubs seem to have it in for us with f/s or academy picks.

[Topdog]

Re: Pick 4 - what's the right price?

You're one of many here I respect. Love this forum.

So laying it out here with those so strongly against it.

1/ how open are you to it possibly being a clever gamble? (we don't have all the info etc)

2/ if answer to Q1 is non-existent to low, do you want Power and/or Grant gone?

I'm still not even sure what Grant's job is, so much like I dont comment on Assistant coaches needing to be gone I will refrain from commenting on Grant and his suitability.

I think Sam has done a good job over the years even though I think we played the Dunkley trade poorly.