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This is more of a jigsaw puzzle than a coherent strategy. I’ve tried to take Collingwood on as a potential trading partner and look for their weaknesses which are clear, but also any opportunities that may present. So here goes:
2021 TPP (Salary Cap) - $13.1M
Reported Salaries:
Grundy $950,000
Moore $800,000 ($1,750,000)
De Goey $725,000 ($2,475,000)
Pendlebury $725,000 ($3,200,000)
Adams $700,000 ($3,900,000)
Sidebottom $675,000 ($4,575,000)
Cox $550,000 ($5,125,000)
Treloar $300,000 ($5,425,000)
Estimated:
Howe $500,000 ($5,925,000)
Elliott $500,000 ($6,425,000)
Summary:
Nearly half their salary cap in tied up 9 Players Still Playing at Collingwood. But.. They have 36 Main Listed Players with 6 Rookie List Players (base rookie payments not included in TPP). That’s a lot of players to pay with the other half. Basically the top 9 (plus them playing Treloar not to play for them) are roughy the top 25% getting 50% of the TPP, while the other 75% of players get the same. Bernie Sanders would be outraged, although I prefer Larry David’s impersonation of same. That averages out ‘everyone else’ (27 players) to just an average of $248,000 which is below the 2020 Average AFL Salary which was horrifically slashed.
Any wonder why new Collingwood GM of Football, Graham Wright said a couple of months back that there’s a “hangover in relation to the salary cap”. They need to obviously increase the wages of highly talented kids too. I can see good offers getting a good hearing. I don’t expect a fire sale.
Where can we fit in?
They are still in the hole $1,200,000 on Treloar. Which I’m sure they’d love to renegotiate and restructure this TPP debt. Sam Power with the stroke of a pen can take some of this on, if he wants to. Does Collingwood want to incentivise Sam to give them the TPP relief they want/need?
What else do Collingwood need?
They traded out their 2021 First Rounder. Obviously because they thought their list wouldn’t be this bad. The have Nick Daicos as a Father/Son in top 3. They do have a suite of mid range picks, but if Daicos does go #1 Pick, then they need to plan for the worst and hope for the best. In this scenario the have a circa 700 Draft Point Deficit. They need to take a hit and lose their 2022 First Rounder (which if they tread water could be Pick 5). Or they trade some mid range types (not sure they have them) or trade out a gun player to bring in a First Rounder this year and another good player, while simultaneously fixing their TPP.
What do we need?
1. KPD
2. Ruck
Note: I’m currently advocating trading out our 2021 First Rounder and taking the hit on a Draft Points Deficit in 2022.
KPD: Darcy Moore is their best option. He’s out for the year with a PCL, which almost feels like he’s on ice based when he did it. He gets them significant TPP relief, and obviously a First Rounder PLUS good player. But the counter argument to trading him if they would be interested, is that he’s a Free Agent next year and if they tread water, could get a premium Top 5 Pick if he left then.
Ruck: Obviously it’s Brodie Grundy. He’s got a heap of years, to 2027 on $950,000 each season. That’s a huge impediment to even thinking about it. On the slip side he’s played 15+ games in every season since 2014. Age 27, 164 games. Not a huge goal kicker, but can carry the ruck on his shoulders. He’s a First Rounder PLUS very good player. He’s the face of the club, so I’m not sure why either would want to seperate.
Both guys seemed close to Nathan Buckley. Maybe with their club imploding, they might be receptive to a fresh start. Treloar is here, Varcoe is here. Both clubs wants and needs (TPP/players/Draft Points) seem to very well aligned. But I still can’t see either happening to point of moving passed a well reasoned theory. As I opened with, it’s a jigsaw puzzle thread not a clear strategy. But they seem like a club worth having very open communication with, although despite all that big money being paid, I’m still only interested in two of their players. They would be interested in seeing the Treloar column of their TPP reduced, if it’s a bad situation maybe we are better than outside chance. If it’s only a minor TPP problem and there’s no burning need, then I’m sorry, you can’t have this five minutes back.
2021 TPP (Salary Cap) - $13.1M
Reported Salaries:
Grundy $950,000
Moore $800,000 ($1,750,000)
De Goey $725,000 ($2,475,000)
Pendlebury $725,000 ($3,200,000)
Adams $700,000 ($3,900,000)
Sidebottom $675,000 ($4,575,000)
Cox $550,000 ($5,125,000)
Treloar $300,000 ($5,425,000)
Estimated:
Howe $500,000 ($5,925,000)
Elliott $500,000 ($6,425,000)
Summary:
Nearly half their salary cap in tied up 9 Players Still Playing at Collingwood. But.. They have 36 Main Listed Players with 6 Rookie List Players (base rookie payments not included in TPP). That’s a lot of players to pay with the other half. Basically the top 9 (plus them playing Treloar not to play for them) are roughy the top 25% getting 50% of the TPP, while the other 75% of players get the same. Bernie Sanders would be outraged, although I prefer Larry David’s impersonation of same. That averages out ‘everyone else’ (27 players) to just an average of $248,000 which is below the 2020 Average AFL Salary which was horrifically slashed.
Any wonder why new Collingwood GM of Football, Graham Wright said a couple of months back that there’s a “hangover in relation to the salary cap”. They need to obviously increase the wages of highly talented kids too. I can see good offers getting a good hearing. I don’t expect a fire sale.
Where can we fit in?
They are still in the hole $1,200,000 on Treloar. Which I’m sure they’d love to renegotiate and restructure this TPP debt. Sam Power with the stroke of a pen can take some of this on, if he wants to. Does Collingwood want to incentivise Sam to give them the TPP relief they want/need?
What else do Collingwood need?
They traded out their 2021 First Rounder. Obviously because they thought their list wouldn’t be this bad. The have Nick Daicos as a Father/Son in top 3. They do have a suite of mid range picks, but if Daicos does go #1 Pick, then they need to plan for the worst and hope for the best. In this scenario the have a circa 700 Draft Point Deficit. They need to take a hit and lose their 2022 First Rounder (which if they tread water could be Pick 5). Or they trade some mid range types (not sure they have them) or trade out a gun player to bring in a First Rounder this year and another good player, while simultaneously fixing their TPP.
What do we need?
1. KPD
2. Ruck
Note: I’m currently advocating trading out our 2021 First Rounder and taking the hit on a Draft Points Deficit in 2022.
KPD: Darcy Moore is their best option. He’s out for the year with a PCL, which almost feels like he’s on ice based when he did it. He gets them significant TPP relief, and obviously a First Rounder PLUS good player. But the counter argument to trading him if they would be interested, is that he’s a Free Agent next year and if they tread water, could get a premium Top 5 Pick if he left then.
Ruck: Obviously it’s Brodie Grundy. He’s got a heap of years, to 2027 on $950,000 each season. That’s a huge impediment to even thinking about it. On the slip side he’s played 15+ games in every season since 2014. Age 27, 164 games. Not a huge goal kicker, but can carry the ruck on his shoulders. He’s a First Rounder PLUS very good player. He’s the face of the club, so I’m not sure why either would want to seperate.
Both guys seemed close to Nathan Buckley. Maybe with their club imploding, they might be receptive to a fresh start. Treloar is here, Varcoe is here. Both clubs wants and needs (TPP/players/Draft Points) seem to very well aligned. But I still can’t see either happening to point of moving passed a well reasoned theory. As I opened with, it’s a jigsaw puzzle thread not a clear strategy. But they seem like a club worth having very open communication with, although despite all that big money being paid, I’m still only interested in two of their players. They would be interested in seeing the Treloar column of their TPP reduced, if it’s a bad situation maybe we are better than outside chance. If it’s only a minor TPP problem and there’s no burning need, then I’m sorry, you can’t have this five minutes back.
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