2015 Draft Watch

[KT31]

Re: 2015 Draft Watch

if we take 2 smalls at 20 & 21 I will spew up to use a well known phrase.

You cannot win a premiership with an army of midgets.

Agree Doc, we have been down this road before and in my mind if we had a couple of decent talls back then we may have won a flag.

[stefoid]

Re: 2015 Draft Watch

Yep. We have reached the stage, particularly given last years draft, where the risk of not having decent talls coming through in the list outweighs the risk of missing out on a quality small.

I do wonder how many gun talls go in the 11-25 range as compared to gun smalls. My gut feeling is that because small talent develops quicker, drafts often go something like this:

1-2 : the definite gun talls, if there are any. hens teeth.

1-10 : mostly the definate gun smalls, except in those 'tall drafts'

11-25: the less probables, including the 'next best talls' types, and NQR mids, plus some flankers and tweeners.

So a fair number of talls taken as 'next best tall' types that dont show their elite colours until 22-23yo get taken in this range.... the range where we now have 2 picks.

rance, d.talia, riewolt, lobbe, taylor, frawley, carlilse, lynch, darling, mcCarthy ,etc...

They are there in that range - the elite talls. Plenty of busts too, but thats the nature of the game, as they say: you got to be in it to win it. We cant afford to keep resting on 'trade for gaps'. Its too expensive. Does dalrymple want any first round draft picks in coming years? if we are forced into more desperate trades for quality talls he wont have any!

[boydogs]

Re: 2015 Draft Watch

Plenty of busts too, but thats the nature of the game, as they say: you got to be in it to win it

This is why the 11 for 20 & 21 trade makes so much sense. Two goes at a range of similar quality players, and consecutive picks to ensure we get the types we are after

[Ghost Dog]

Re: 2015 Draft Watch

Must do their heads in trying to figure out all the different variables.

[Mofra]

Re: 2015 Draft Watch

I do wonder how many gun talls go in the 11-25 range as compared to gun smalls. My gut feeling is that because small talent develops quicker, drafts often go something like this:

1-2 : the definite gun talls, if there are any. hens teeth.

1-10 : mostly the definate gun smalls, except in those 'tall drafts'

11-25: the less probables, including the 'next best talls' types, and NQR mids, plus some flankers and tweeners.

Happy to stand corrected, but Dixon and Taylor ( as a mature ager) were taken in the 11-25 range - Carlisle was taken a little later (pre pick 40) like Fev & Tippett & Goodes.

Then there's guys taken much much later in the draft/PSD/rookie draft - Lake, Morris, Tex Walker, Fletch Roberts and of course the never to be repeated goldmine that is Chris Grant

[Greystache]

Re: 2015 Draft Watch

Happy to stand corrected, but Dixon and Taylor ( as a mature ager) were taken in the 11-25 range - Carlisle was taken a little later (pre pick 40) like Fev & Tippett & Goodes.

Then there's guys taken much much later in the draft/PSD/rookie draft - Lake, Morris, Tex Walker, Fletch Roberts and of course the never to be repeated goldmine that is Chris Grant

Carlisle was pick 24 in 2009, 9 picks after Howard, and 4 after Fyfe.

[stefoid]

Re: 2015 Draft Watch

Happy to stand corrected, but Dixon and Taylor ( as a mature ager) were taken in the 11-25 range - Carlisle was taken a little later (pre pick 40) like Fev & Tippett & Goodes.

Then there's guys taken much much later in the draft/PSD/rookie draft - Lake, Morris, Tex Walker, Fletch Roberts and of course the never to be repeated goldmine that is Chris Grant

Carlilse went 24. Sure there are quality players taken after the first 20-30, but they rare. Its pot luck at that stage. Clayton usually took a few tall spuds with very late picks 'for list balance'. Only one ever worked out - some meat worker with sleep apnea.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Re: 2015 Draft Watch

I'd be interested to know if we had a specific player in mind that we thought would last to pick 20/211, or if we simply wanted two bites at the cherry.

If it's the former, it's a big risk to trade away Pick 11. Most sides would know, for example, we're desperate for quality KPDs - meaning another club is more likely to pounce on a Ben McKay if they liked him, knowing we'd definitely take him if available.

If we just wanted two shots at what we predict are similar rated players, fair enough, but if a KPD isn't available there will be some backlash.

[LostDoggy]

Re: 2015 Draft Watch

I'm gonna have a crack at compiling a bit of a wish list of candidates I see as ideal for our picks, trying to be reasonable about who may be available. I've done a little bit of research, tried to incorporate list demands (to a small degree) and tried to find players who offer what our list managers seem to value highly (good character, disposal skills, endurance, mobility, improving/developing form and versatility).

With this in mind, I'm cheering for the following:

PICKS 20-21:

Ben Mackay (Gippsland), 17 yr 11 mths (200 cm, 95 kg). Late comer to AFL who was miles behind twin brother Harry at start of year but has rapidly improved through year. Good blend of solid build yet mobile and athletic. Has primarily played KPD at TAC level, but also shown aptitude forward and in Ruck. Outstanding traits include appetite for the contest, strong overhead, keeps feet in contest. Queries include whether his body is developed enough for impact early in AFL career and form can be patchy through games. Dalrymple is rumoured to be a fan, and Bob probably is too, given he is a fellow Warragul boy.

Draft Range: (I have looked at 7 Phantom Drafts, including AFL, Fox Footy, Paige Cordona, Cal Twomey etc, and noted draft pick) High 20 - Low 26.

If B.Mackay is gone, other suitable talls would include Keiran Collins, Harry MacKay or Eric Hipwood, however these are less likely to be available. If all of these were miraculously available, my order of preference would be Hipwood, B.Mackay, H.Mackay and Collins.

Michael Hibberd (Clarence, Tas), 19 yrs, 2 mths, (191/85). Missed selection last year after injured shoulder and knee ruined season. Has had a great year. Superb all round mid, who wins own ball, gives great run and carry, great disposal (was best at kicking drills at combine), strong overhead and is very good below knees. Has that quality of play slowing down when has ball and takes the game on.

Says he models his game on Bont, in playing style there are aspects of Bont and Bob in his game (no pressure). Real hurt factor at AFL looks to be more as a winger/back flanker than as an inside mid. Can see him taking on Bob/MBoyd role in a year or 2. Combine results indicate elite traits; rated 2nd in beep test (15.4), 3rd in 3k time trial (10.02) and #1 in kicking drills.

Issues: Has had injuries and he is a little older than some candidates. Can also try to do too much at times.

Draft Range: 20 - 28.

Riley Bonner (South Aust), 18 yrs 8 mths (191/85). In many ways a similar type to Hibberd, although probably more specifically suited to HBF. Less adept at winning own ball than Hibberd, but does have serious weapons. He can be a 90 metre player with real run and carry abilities and a booming 60 metre left foot. What is very impressive is that he is two sided, with a right foot that is better than many who use their right foot primarily. Whilst his versatility is questionable, the thought of him running around in a half backline with Bob, Easton Wood, JJ and Suckling would give us scary rebounding capabilities. Was All-Australian at U18s this year.

Draft range: 17 - 25.

More picks to follow.

[LostDoggy]

Re: 2015 Draft Watch

PICK 30

Sam Skinner (Gippsland), 18 yrs, 5 mths, (197, 96), If we don't get B.MacKay (or another tall) at 20/21, we could easily look towards SS as a similar substitute. He is also a versatile tall, who has primarily shown out as a 1 on 1 KPD, but has also played well forward and in the Ruck. Strong competitor and tackler and has good hands, but probably lacks the athletic upside of a BM. Also missed a big part of this year after rupturing an ACL whilst playing in the U18 Championships in May. With a good U18s, could've been a 1st Rounder, but will slide now. If Dal rates him at 30, could be a great addition to our list as a mobile KPD who has the size to take on proper power forwards.

Draft Range: 27 - 52.

Thomas Cole (Bendigo), 18 yrs 6 mths (185, 76). Cole is probably a good option should we not get Hibberd/Bonner, not so much with either. A slightly less dynamic/big but similar type to Hibberd. Good inside and out, especially contested (averaged 25 poss in TAC) and regarded as a high quality user with hand and foot. Played well at VFL level with Geelong this year. Just an all-round good, solid mid, best suited wing. What really appeals are the comments about his leadership/character. Sounds a ripping kid and a good addition to any list.

Draft range: 30 - 37.

Brayden Fiorini (Northern Knights), 18 yrs 3 mths (186, 75). Definitely meets the 'improver' criteria, whilst a good player early this year in TAC, he was on fire late, regularly winning 30-45 touches at 75-85% efficiency. Probably a little lighter than ideal for for our list, but his attributes are undeniable, great winner of own ball in tight and in transition, lovely left foot kick and is considered outstanding with regard to toughness and leadership.

Draft range: 33 - 42.

James Parsons (Eastern Ranges), 18 yrs 7 mths, (189, 75). Another mid with a solid all round game who is widely regarded as being of excellent character. Doesn't have the ball winning smarts of Cole/Fiorini, but is a great size, has good poise in traffic and accellaration, good runner and is a long kick who uses the ball well.

Draft range: 32 - 41

[boydogs]

Re: 2015 Draft Watch

PP are those draft ranges after adjusting the picks for the academy selections? Our picks will be something like 24, 25, 35 & 46 instead of 20, 21, 30 & 51

[F'scary]

Re: 2015 Draft Watch

Thanks PP, really appreciate the research and like your consideration of list needs. I have to say, if we can secure one of those KPB's you mention (B McKay would be fine) and two of the bigger bodied mids you identify with picks 25ish, 26ish and 34ish (that appears to be what we have after academy bids are filed), I would be tempted to go the Mitch Brown or similar state league KPD with what appears now to be pick 47ish. The article GVGjr linked to has about 8 ready to play CHB/FB's who would appear to be worth the risk at that pick range.

[LostDoggy]

Re: 2015 Draft Watch

PICK 51


Having acquired 1/2 quality young talls and 1/2 quality mids who complement our list, in my dream draft we would identify someone of a more speculative nature who fulfils specific list needs. I reckon there are 5 intriguing candidates as 4th pick/rookies:

Nicholas Coughlan (Murray Bushrangers), 19 yrs 2 mths (195/83). Well known to the club as he played a few 2015 games at Footscray and was, by all reports, quite impressive. Strong points are that he is a strong 1 on 1 competitor who is a very good overhead mark and intercept mark, yet is mobile and a good kick (ranked #2 at combine). Downside is that he is still physically light so probably a season or 2 away from being a serious KPD option at AFL level. Endurance is also considered suspect and is also GWS academy listed, so they can counterbid depending on the circumstances of the night.

Draft range: 47 - undrafted

Matthew Allen (South Aust), 18 yrs 2 mths (194, 90). Tremendous all round sportsman who is alsoa development rookie with Adelaide Strikers in the Big Bash. Bit bemused as to why he is not more highly rated. Was great for SA in the U18 champs, beat Keiran Collins hand down and had 9 shots on goal v WA (but kicked poorly). Is rated a hard working, mobile forward with excellent endurance and very strong overhead. Terrific athlete and good field kick, but pokes at goalkicks inside 40. Kind of a poor mans, slightly smaller Nick Riewoldt. Can really see him topping off the Bulldogs forward set up as a hard leading, mobile CHF.

Draft range: 44 - undrafted

Mitchell Brown (Sandringham/Geelong), 25 yrs 3 mths, (196, 93), Safe bet for KPD depth. Disappointed as a high draft pick at Geelong, but had a plate removed from his foot after 2013 season and was excellent at VFL level last year (and when filling in for Essendon during NAB challenge). No great attributes, but is strong, mobile and skilled enough to be a very solid AFL contributor and can go forward. Given our list, his KPD abilities could prove invaluable. If we miss MacKay, we could conceivably even take him at 30.

Draft Range: 32 - 53.

Gach Nyuon (Dandenong), 18 yrs 8 mths (201, 81). Sudanese-born Ruckman with 4 years AFL experience. Has attributes we would love, namely mobility (spreads like a midfielder) and an ability to go forward and take a grab. Skills are okay and combine testing was outstanding, equalling NicNat's all time running vertical leap record and very fast sprints. Dominant ruckman in U18s.
The catch is that his light frame means that he is years away from his best and unlikely to meaningly contribute at AFL level for at least a couple of years.

Draft range: 32 - 55

Matthew Flynn (Naranderra/GWS academy), 18 yrs 2 mths (200/99), another who is surprisingly undersold in my opinion. Physically solid yet mobile ruckman who loves the crash and bash. Sound football skills, for a Ruckman especially good below his knees. Can take a grab, has kicked goals and is a nice kick. Very raw and drafting rucks is unfashionable, but this kid is developed, terrific competitor and talented. Would be a great rookie get.

Draft range: 51 - undrafted

[LostDoggy]

Re: 2015 Draft Watch

PP are those draft ranges after adjusting the picks for the academy selections? Our picks will be something like 24, 25, 35 & 46 instead of 20, 21, 30 & 51

True. I didn't try to adjust for pick after academy selections as this could vary on the night. I'm just going with allocated pick prior to academy bidding process. Could just as easily have said pick 1, pick 2, pick 3 and pick 4 for us I suppose.

[GVGjr]

Re: 2015 Draft Watch

True. I didn't try to adjust for pick after academy selections as this could vary on the night. I'm just going with allocated pick prior to academy bidding process. Could just as easily have said pick 1, pick 2, pick 3 and pick 4 for us I suppose.

You've done it the right way and I appreciate the effort. I like your suggestion of Skinner.

In an ideal but realistic scenario which 4 players can you see us taking?