WOOF Phantom Drafts

[Bulldog Revolution]

Re: WOOF Phantom Drafts

When you start looking at the pool of players it’s laughable that this is touted as a weak draft.

Plenty of good options will be available past pick 20.

Yes! And it's the same rubbish every year

I will never believe that there aren't 40 good prospects (every year) - it's jut a question of identifying them and developing them

[Missing Dog]

Re: WOOF Phantom Drafts

O'Brien scares me a lot. His contested numbers were exceptionally poor at the U18 championships, that's usually a very bad sign.

[GVGjr]

Re: WOOF Phantom Drafts

O'Brien scares me a lot. His contested numbers were exceptionally poor at the U18 championships, that's usually a very bad sign.

I wonder how clubs will judge that because they might feel you can can have a player like that if their other attributes are strong?
They could also think it's something they can improve.

[GVGjr]

Re: WOOF Phantom Drafts

Just trying to work our the players likely to go before our pick 9

I think picks 1,2 and 3 have to fall to Rayner, LDU and Dow in whatever order.
Picks 4 and 5 should have Stephenson, Cerra and maybe Naughton in the mix if Fremantle want a local boy.
At pick 6 I think the Pies will go for either Naughton or Brander because they probably need a key defender more.
Lets go with Naughton

The Saints have picks 7 and 8 and it's a bit harder to work what a club might do when they have consecutive picks. They should be all over Brayshaw at 7 but for pick 8 I'm not sure if they will go for either Bonar or Fogarty as forwards who can play in the midfield or Brander who could fill a KPD spot for them or even Clark as a versatile midfielder or defender. I think it will be Bonar but I don't say that with a lot of confidence.

That means for our pick 9 we should have the likes of Brander, Fogarty, Clark and Coffield as leading candidates.
To me Fogarty makes the most sense of those 4 then Clark but I couldn't be concerned with any on them.

Carlton should be all over Brander at pick 10 and I don't think GWS would hesitate selecting Coffield at 11 after losing Wilson and with Heath Shaw likely to be playing his last year in 2018.

Adelaide at 12 might look at Jack Higgins because he would be no flight risk given his professionalism and of course Clark who I've mentioned at pick 8 is still there. I'll lean towards Higgins.

West Coast should go for the local boy in Oscar Allen at pick 13 but he is very much a Jack Darling clone and I wonder if he might fit in for them. Perhaps they take a fly at Tim Kelly if Sydney or another side appear to be sniffing around him.

Sydney have pick 14 and should take Clark if he is still there. They like tough midfielders and he should suit them.

Pick 15 is Brisbane who have already locked in a midfielder. There could be a few players on the radar here. Sam Hayes as a ruckman/forward who will take time, Constable as a big bodied midfielder, Noah Balta who would help in key positions would all be in the mix. I'm going with Tim Kelly as a ready to go player for the Lions and as the first surprise of the draft night. Kelly and Zorko would cause a few teams headaches in 2018.

That leaves our pick 16. I could see us putting in a bid for Naish who would also suit us as a small forward midfielder but that is doubtful because I think Richmond would match it.
I'm a fan of Constable as a 190cm midfielder who can play forward and even back. He has a good kick as well which appeals. There are some other players worth considering.
Jordan Houlahan ticks about all the boxes for us with his marking and his versatility. He's a 185cm tall and plays mainly forward but can play as a defender as well. His marking and athleticism really stands out.
Ed Richards as a mid sized defender or winger with plenty of run isn't out of the mix. He's an eye catching type which also appeals
At 22 Liam Ryan is a ready to go exciting small forward and we are a team who needs players who can kick goals.
Noah Balta is a versatile KP player with a heap of athleticism. He is another that catches the eye. Lachlan Fogarty could also be a top 20 disrupter and he is a hard working small forward or midfielder who loves tackling opponents and kicking a goal.
Nathan Murphy is a bit like Houlahan as a roughy but he is a composed and versatile player who has plenty of upside. He's probably in the mix at pick 9 as well.

I'll go with Constable but I wouldn't rule out the jumping jack Houlahan.

Richmond at pick 17 should go with Balta, The Lions at 18 should pick Richards. Gold Coast should look at Ryan and Richmond at pick 20 should go with Sam Hayes.

It would be a good draft for Richmond if they land Balta as a key defender, Hayes as a ruckman/forward and then Naish a bit later.


I'll be very interested in the thoughts of others.

[Go_Dogs]

Re: WOOF Phantom Drafts

Great analysis, thanks GVGjr.

As you've mentioned, the first 3 players seem to pick themselves it's just a matter of who lands who, and North seem to be right into Stephenson who spent time there via the Academy and should fit their needs nicely.

Fremantle and Collingwood are the teams that will then shape the draft - if they elect to go local (Freo with Naughton) or tall (Collingwood with Naughton or Brander) it opens it up a bit. If they both head down that path then St Kilda are going to have a very tough choice to make with all of Cerra, Brayshaw, Bonar and Fogarty surely under strong consideration. St Kilda need blue chip midfielders with some size so wouldn't surprise me to see them take 2 mids here (Cerra and Brayshaw).

Still very open.

[GVGjr]

Re: WOOF Phantom Drafts

Great analysis, thanks GVGjr.

As you've mentioned, the first 3 players seem to pick themselves it's just a matter of who lands who, and North seem to be right into Stephenson who spent time there via the Academy and should fit their needs nicely.

Fremantle and Collingwood are the teams that will then shape the draft - if they elect to go local (Freo with Naughton) or tall (Collingwood with Naughton or Brander) it opens it up a bit. If they both head down that path then St Kilda are going to have a very tough choice to make with all of Cerra, Brayshaw, Bonar and Fogarty surely under strong consideration. St Kilda need blue chip midfielders with some size so wouldn't surprise me to see them take 2 mids here (Cerra and Brayshaw).

Still very open.

I missed adding Cerra as a potential slider if Freo go with the local boy which could then changes things up for the Saints and us. Saints would have to be interested which throws us into the mix for Bonar. I'll look at a redo a bit later

[Twodogs]

Re: WOOF Phantom Drafts

I wonder how clubs will judge that because they might feel you can can have a player like that if their other attributes are strong?
They could also think it's something they can improve.

You can't teach aggression. You either have it if you don't. If you try to fake it then you just look like a blowhard and the truly aggressive eat blowhards for breakfast.

[GVGjr]

Re: WOOF Phantom Drafts

Great analysis, thanks GVGjr.

As you've mentioned, the first 3 players seem to pick themselves it's just a matter of who lands who, and North seem to be right into Stephenson who spent time there via the Academy and should fit their needs nicely.

Fremantle and Collingwood are the teams that will then shape the draft - if they elect to go local (Freo with Naughton) or tall (Collingwood with Naughton or Brander) it opens it up a bit. If they both head down that path then St Kilda are going to have a very tough choice to make with all of Cerra, Brayshaw, Bonar and Fogarty surely under strong consideration. St Kilda need blue chip midfielders with some size so wouldn't surprise me to see them take 2 mids here (Cerra and Brayshaw).

Still very open.

How do you see things falling from picks 9 to 16? Any surprises or smokies likely to show up in the top 20?

[GVGjr]

Re: WOOF Phantom Drafts

You can't teach aggression. You either have it if you don't. If you try to fake it then you just look like a blowhard and the truly aggressive eat blowhards for breakfast.

I'm not so sure, I think Macrae has learned to be a tough and somewhat aggressive player. His natural instincts would be that of an outside midfielder but he quickly learned to how to work in congested play. Same with Dahlhaus

[boydogs]

Re: WOOF Phantom Drafts

Predicting the draft is very difficult but I don't like when people suggest players will go to certain clubs because it's what the club needs, especially in the top 10-20. It can give you a tidy way to decide who you think will pick who, but really are clubs drafting for needs that early?

[Go_Dogs]

Re: WOOF Phantom Drafts

How do you see things falling from picks 9 to 16? Any surprises or smokies likely to show up in the top 20?

There's always a few surprises so I'm sure some teams will grab certain players earlier than most are expecting. The draft is really so open/even/deep that anything can happen with from 9-25.

If it falls the way I'd speculated above, I wouldn't be surprised to see us grab Clark at 9, Carlton take Fogarty/Bonar at 10 (could they ignore Fogarty or is he similar to Curnow? Does Bonar give them a point of difference?) and GWS to take either Coffield (as you say, a Wilson/Shaw replacement) or Higgins (Devon Smith replacement). I'll go with Higgins because of character and leadership.

Adelaide may look tall and Balta could be in their thinking unless one of Brander/Naughton fall through, or if Carlton don't take Fogarty, the should pounce on him.

Constable should be right in the mix for both West Coast and Sydney - I'll say West Coast grab him to bolster their inside midfield and Sydney then jump on Houlahan (I agree with you we'll be looking closely at him too). Brisbane then take Coffield who has slid and is too hard to ignore.

I have Oscar Allen sliding a bit because forwards his height aren't in vogue.

We then will look at one of Naish (Richmond would match), O'Brien (potentially one we look at), Murphy (think Dal will like his scope for development) and for some reason I wouldn't be surprised if we had a player like Stoddart in our mix.


Following all that through, I'm thinking:-

LDU
Dow
Rayner
Stephenson (North)
Naughton (Freo)
Brander (Collingwood)
Cerra (Saints)
Brayshaw (Saints)
Clark (Dogs)
Bonar (Carlton)
Higgins (GWS)
Fogarty (Crows)
Constable (West Coast)
Houlahan (Swans)
Coffield (Brisbane)
Naish (matched- Richmond)
Murphy (Dogs)

* disclaimer, my thoughts are subject to change in about 10 minutes, as is the evenness of this draft

[Go_Dogs]

Re: WOOF Phantom Drafts

Predicting the draft is very difficult but I don't like when people suggest players will go to certain clubs because it's what the club needs, especially in the top 10-20. It can give you a tidy way to decide who you think will pick who, but really are clubs drafting for needs that early?

I think they do, because depending on their perceived needs they'll value certain qualities higher which helps form the order of how they rank players.

[The Doctor]

Re: WOOF Phantom Drafts

Stephenson should be top 2 in my opinion. If we had a pick in the top 2 that's who I'd take. Freo are the interesting one. Will they take a tall with one of their picks? They have been linked with Naughton and Hayes. If they do we could see one the popular fancies slide through to us. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Murphy, Richards or Balta come into the mix for us at pick 16 or possibly at 9

[GVGjr]

Re: WOOF Phantom Drafts

Predicting the draft is very difficult but I don't like when people suggest players will go to certain clubs because it's what the club needs, especially in the top 10-20. It can give you a tidy way to decide who you think will pick who, but really are clubs drafting for needs that early?

I've recently put up a top 20 largely based on what I've seen with a bit of speculation and now a top 20 on where I think clubs may have an interest in certain players. The two are pretty close but different as well. I think the top 3 pick themselves, the next 3 are pretty close but it's from about pick 7 onwards I think clubs might shape things a bit towards their needs.

Is there any of the suggestions made you think are off the mark?

[GVGjr]

Re: WOOF Phantom Drafts

There's always a few surprises so I'm sure some teams will grab certain players earlier than most are expecting. The draft is really so open/even/deep that anything can happen with from 9-25.

If it falls the way I'd speculated above, I wouldn't be surprised to see us grab Clark at 9, Carlton take Fogarty/Bonar at 10 (could they ignore Fogarty or is he similar to Curnow? Does Bonar give them a point of difference?) and GWS to take either Coffield (as you say, a Wilson/Shaw replacement) or Higgins (Devon Smith replacement). I'll go with Higgins because of character and leadership.

Adelaide may look tall and Balta could be in their thinking unless one of Brander/Naughton fall through, or if Carlton don't take Fogarty, the should pounce on him.

Constable should be right in the mix for both West Coast and Sydney - I'll say West Coast grab him to bolster their inside midfield and Sydney then jump on Houlahan (I agree with you we'll be looking closely at him too). Brisbane then take Coffield who has slid and is too hard to ignore.

I have Oscar Allen sliding a bit because forwards his height aren't in vogue.

We then will look at one of Naish (Richmond would match), O'Brien (potentially one we look at), Murphy (think Dal will like his scope for development) and for some reason I wouldn't be surprised if we had a player like Stoddart in our mix.


Following all that through, I'm thinking:-

LDU
Dow
Rayner
Stephenson (North)
Naughton (Freo)
Brander (Collingwood)
Cerra (Saints)
Brayshaw (Saints)
Clark (Dogs)
Bonar (Carlton)
Higgins (GWS)
Fogarty (Crows)
Constable (West Coast)
Houlahan (Swans)
Coffield (Brisbane)
Naish (matched- Richmond)
Murphy (Dogs)

* disclaimer, my thoughts are subject to change in about 10 minutes, as is the evenness of this draft

Thats a good list. Thanks