BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

It looks like it's going to have to be a very precise raid on the draft for us this year after our strong target effort last year. I still can't believe we were able to land Naughton and Richards via the draft and Schache, Trengove and Crosier by trades

Where everything gets tricky for us is if pick 6/7 is enough to land Wingard because if the Dahlhaus compensation pick has to be added then our shopping list and options are reduced substantially. The other option to help us is to offer up a 2019 pick in the trade for Wingard but getting something back from them this year.

Assuming we land Wingard then we have added something special to our midfield and forward line, Lloyd might also help our forward line. West is a player for the midfield and Khamis will get time to further develop as defensive player. We shouldn't need to rush either of these boys.

All this sounds positive but have the right selections available to cover the need to find a player to replace the loss of both Roughead and Campbell or do we run the risk of going in with English being supported by the likes of Trengove and Boyd?

We will soon find out if our interest in Wingard is a genuine option and once that is determined we should be able to get our targeted players.

I think the next most crucial piece of the puzzle this year is Roughead. Whether clubs have gone cold on him and he stays, or if we want get Pick 46 (third round compo for him). If we can add that into our plans, and then if a trade offer for Adams is so good for our club that we actually take it. If Brisbane offered their pick 22 (if the four year rumour is actually true), maybe we throw back 46 or 62, then we get to a more flexible position. Hopefully by early next week there's a clear picture on Roughy. The big catch will be if WCE let Lycett & Gaff go as free agent, they would trade on Roughy if they're interested if they land Lobb. At best their third rounder would be 58. So hopefully there's some more suitors on Roughy, you'd think he'd be number one ruck at GWS. But there's a few avenues which could open up once Roughy & Adams are sorted out one way or the other.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

I don't want to hi-Jack other threads so I'll throw out a hypothetical trade. Trying to get right between Port & GCS. We obviously want Wingard and have shown interest every year in May. If our pick 7 is important in their trade. Something like:

We start with Wingard for Pick 7.
Adams to Brisbane for Sam Mayes (who wants to go Home Adelaide possibly). Port are down running defenders so far, so I imagine they'd be interested in replacing what they've lost with a ready made.

So we gift Mayes over to Port, but get credit in the bank for Mayes and 2019 first rounder with Port. Port look likely to need the points or flexibility next year. So a first rounder next year is of interest.

Port and GCS trade on pick 3. Perhaps picks 6 & 11 for pick 3.

As Collingwood & Melbourne are much delayed on Steven May. A top 10, Pick 10, goes from Port for Steven May, then coming to us.

Something like:

Dogs: Wingard & May - Pick 7, 2019 1st rounder, Marcus Adams
GCS: Picks 6, 10 & 11 (Keeping 2) - Pick 3 & May
Port: Pick 3, Pick 7, 2019 1st, Mayes - Wingard, Picks 6, 10 & 11

We may have to put another player in maybe. But that's the framework.

We clearly rate Wingard & May, and Plough says Port & GCS are already talking. If we can get in the middle with two first rounders and currency from Adams, then EasternWest prophecy of getting both might just be opening up. *** If Wingard chooses us and pick 7 is in play.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

Current Spots, Likely 9 (Dahl, Smith, Biggs, Redders, Collins, Roughy & likely Adams, Campbell, Honeychurch):


(1) Pick 7
(2) Pick 27
(3) Pick 45
(4) Pick 63
(5) Pick 81
(6) Trade (Lloyd)
(7) Rookie Elevation (Gowers)
(8) Rookie Elevation (Lynch)

My guess is 63 gets upgraded to Collingwood's 57 (more draft points)
My guess is 27 can be traded for a player (being the 9th spot) if enough draft points come in from Adams - Or Roarke might get elevated if pick 100 isn't fancied by the recruiters

[Mofra]

Re: BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

We'll end up with 1-2 more picks for Adams I assume.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

We'll end up with 1-2 more picks for Adams I assume.

Yep. I'm factoring getting 41 & 44 for Adams in the way I would structure things. Then using four picks 41, 44, 45 & 63 (or 57 if that's the Roughy upgrade) on two players West & Khamis.

7 & 27 (or trades) - 2
West & Khamis - 2
82 (Hayes, Dawson, other) & 100 (or single year Smith) - 2
Lloyd, Gowers, Lynch - 3

[GVGjr]

Re: BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

Yep. I'm factoring getting 41 & 44 for Adams in the way I would structure things. Then using four picks 41, 44, 45 & 63 (or 57 if that's the Roughy upgrade) on two players West & Khamis.

7 & 27 (or trades) - 2
West & Khamis - 2
82 & 100 (or single year Smith) - 2
Lloyd, Gowers, Lynch - 3

BT, can we use the later picks on West or are we hamstrung by potentially having to use pick 27?

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

BT, can we use the later picks on West or are we hamstrung by potentially having to use pick 27?

No we need to use 27. Which is why I'm an advocate for a trade with pick 7 (proving we get 41 & 44 for Adams). Be it a player we like for what is a nice draft pick, or a draft picks trade with someone wanting to do it like Adelaide is publicly saying it wants to. There's a few avenues that I can us getting creative to make good trades and make use of lower picks to plunder the system like Sydney and others regularly do.

[GVGjr]

Re: BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

No we need to use 27. Which is why I'm an advocate for a trade with pick 7 (proving we get 41 & 44 for Adams). Be it a player we like for what is a nice draft pick, or a draft picks trade with someone wanting to do it like Adelaide is publicly saying it wants to. There's a few avenues that I can us getting creative to make good trades and make use of lower picks to plunder the system like Sydney and others regularly do.

But we should just keep pick 7, unless we get a great deal for it, and move pick 27 into something for next year or a player via a trade and use either pick 32 or 41 and 45 and our pick 42 on West and Khamis.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

But we should just keep pick 7, unless we get a great deal for it, and move pick 27 into something for next year or a player via a trade and use either pick 32 or 41 and 45 and our pick 42 on West and Khamis.

I'm very open to where things could lead. At a minimum pick 27 gets traded somehow. Either a player, a future or something. We can't burn through 27 on points and be left with a heap of late picks. So you're right, we need to do something with it.

The draft pick trade with 7 & 27 for say 13, 16 & 21 from Adelaide only happens if we've done enough due diligence on securing players coming to us. Much like last year, we were happy to trade Stringer, for what Essendon wanted (low), knowing Carlton had something we wanted (and vice versa) and that Schache would result. Everything lined up and we knew how the dominoes would fall. So... If we had pick 13 & 16 lined up with two good players already on the hook if we secured the picks, and then 21 for a future first to Hawthorn, then I'd consider it depending on the players involved in the picks 13 & 16 aspects of the trade. If the players aren't good enough, or the players are good enough but not guaranteed, then I wouldn't risk pick 7 at all. Then 27 gets traded on its own. But Adelaide's list manager told the PWC function today they are prepared to use their picks improve their first from pick 8, we'd be negligent not to hear them out knowing they probably want Rozee at a minimum. If Rozee makes them offer overs, then that's a path to explore what 13, 16 & 21 looks like as a trade/on trade option and then make a final call. I'd listen and think hard without commitment.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

Current Spots, Likely 7 or 8 (Dahl, Smith, Biggs, Redders, Collins, Roughy & possibly Adams, & probably Honeychurch):

(1) Pick 7 - Rozee?
(2) Pick 27 - West
(3) Pick 45 - Khamis
(4) Pick 63 - (maybe into 57 for Roughead) Best guess is coverage of draft points for West/Khamis / Dawson another NGA? / Cavacca or Hayes?
(5) Trade (Duryea)
(6) Trade (Lloyd)
(7) Rookie Elevation (Gowers)
(8) Rookie Elevation (Lynch)

Sam Power indicated today Campbell is staying.

If West is bid at pick 18 & Khamis bid pick at 35 = 1,176 draft points after discounts.
Picks 27, 45 & 63 = 1,162 points. (Upgrade to pick 57 is 1,232 points)

If Adams goes, maybe we need to use the pick on a trade to fill the 8th spot (or get a player back) or we end up using 63 on a player. Or don't trade Adams and leave the turnover at 7 which could've been 8-9 given the list we had this year.

[G-Mo77]

Re: BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

I really hope we're taking more than 4 picks in the draft and use some later ones on VFL talent.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

I really hope we're taking more than 4 picks in the draft and use some later ones on VFL talent.

It might only be three live picks. If we hold Adams, we only have 7 spots. Two trades, two rookie upgrades and 7/West/Khamis.

[G-Mo77]

Re: BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

Adams is gone, we'll cave in the 11th. Surely HC is done? No?

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

Adams is gone, we'll cave in the 11th. Surely HC is done? No?

7 includes Honeychurch being cut.
8 if Adams goes. The catch is if we got something like pick 32 we need to trade it, or blow the points and not get the quality pick potentially. If it's 41 & 44, we waste pick 27. A player for player trade might be more worthwhile. Or a swap of futures, and use 82 on a VFL type.

[Scraggers]

Re: BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

Thank you BT ... I truly appreciated you efforts in this thread (and others). Your research and insight during the draft/trade period really assist the unanointed (like myself) understand the machinations of the trade/draft.

You mention the possibility of packaging 7 and 27 and trading them to Adelaide for 13, 16 & 21. I know we are talking up the top seven recruits in this draft, but I would jump at this deal. The depth in this draft looks very exciting. The possibility of using two first rounders (13 & 16) plus West at 21 (paying after of 21 would be better) and Khamis in the forties augers well for our future.

Three questions ... what is 7 & 27 worth in points compared to 13, 16 & 21? And how desperate do you think Crows are to move forward in picks; enough to make this deal? Does a change of picks have to happen before deadline tomorrow or can this be done up to and including draft day?