BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

Thank you BT ... I truly appreciated you efforts in this thread (and others). Your research and insight during the draft/trade period really assist the unanointed (like myself) understand the machinations of the trade/draft.

You mention the possibility of packaging 7 and 27 and trading them to Adelaide for 13, 16 & 21. I know we are talking up the top seven recruits in this draft, but I would jump at this deal. The depth in this draft looks very exciting. The possibility of using two first rounders (13 & 16) plus West at 21 (paying after of 21 would be better) and Khamis in the forties augers well for our future.

Three questions ... what is 7 & 27 worth in points compared to 13, 16 & 21? And how desperate do you think Crows are to move forward in picks; enough to make this deal? Does a change of picks have to happen before deadline tomorrow or can this be done up to and including draft day?

In no order, the Adelaide list manager told the PWC function yesterday their first rounders are on the table to move up. So they’re not shy.

If they believe Rozee goes at pick 7, then there’s a universe between pick 7 & 8 if they want him and say Hately as SA boys. Back to back top 10 picks are like leprechaun’s gold. If we are the only path they have and they want it, strangers things....

There’s a sizeable points difference in that trade. But I see a distinction. 13 & 16 is worth more on an objective points chart. It doesn’t factor that pick 7 could be elite like this year or the desperation of a club to land a local gun, most scribes pick it as Rozee. If that was a sticking point, 21/27 could sit out.

And a pick trade has to be done by tomorrow night. Holding 13 & 16 could be risky if West fell before either. When I first floated the pick swap it was more around targeting good players with the picks. I’d hold pick 7 at this point unless we could knock down a lot of last minute dominoes like last year with 13, 16 & 21 and move Adams on for 41 & 45 to cover the loss of 27. It seems like a lot of work in not much time.

Thanks for the feedback, I hope woofers get something from my year long talking out loud.

[ratsmac]

Re: BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

In no order, the Adelaide list manager told the PWC function yesterday their first rounders are on the table to move up. So they’re not shy.

If they believe Rozee goes at pick 7, then there’s a universe between pick 7 & 8 if they want him and say Hately as SA boys. Back to back top 10 picks are like leprechaun’s gold. If we are the only path they have and they want it, strangers things....

There’s a sizeable points difference in that trade. But I see a distinction. 13 & 16 is worth more on an objective points chart. It doesn’t factor that pick 7 could be elite like this year or the desperation of a club to land a local gun, most scribes pick it as Rozee. If that was a sticking point, 21/27 could sit out.

And a pick trade has to be done by tomorrow night. Holding 13 & 16 could be risky if West fell before either. When I first floated the pick swap it was more around targeting good players with the picks. I’d hold pick 7 at this point unless we could knock down a lot of last minute dominoes like last year with 13, 16 & 21 and move Adams on for 41 & 45 to cover the loss of 27. It seems like a lot of work in not much time.

Thanks for the feedback, I hope woofers get something from my year long talking out loud.

I for one love your talking out loud and it freaks me out how your mind ticks come trade time.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

I for one love your talking out loud and it freaks me out how your mind ticks come trade time.

Story of my life. Of the annual 365 days, I only really shine for 10 during the trade window!!

[GVGjr]

Re: BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

I for one love your talking out loud and it freaks me out how your mind ticks come trade time.

I don't think it's just confined to the trade period

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

Here's my last minute hypothetical to take advantage of known desperations. Not going to happen, but if we wanted to flip things around:

Pick 7 > Adelaide Pick 13 & 16 (Adealide get their wish of going albeit slightly up the order and obtain back to back top 8 picks)

Picks 16 & 27 > WCE Pick 22 & Brander (very talented KPF who slipped down to pick 13 last year) (nets us an extra 142 draft points) (West Coast then on trade 16 &/or 20 to get Kelly as they wish. Maybe they do it go get Kelly now)

Pick 63 & Roughy > Pick 57 Collingwood (70 extra draft points)

Adams > Brisbane picks 32 & 44

9 list spots (delist Campbell and take the risk to rookie him)

(1) Pick 13
(2) Pick 22 (West)
(3) Pick 32
(4) Picks 44, 45 & 57 (Khamis)
(5) Brander
(6) Duryea
(7) Lloyd
(8) Gowers
(9) Lynch


The main argument is whether we rate pick 7 vs pick 13 & Brander and more points to free up pick 32 for use in its own right most likely.

[GVGjr]

Re: BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

BT, For what it's worth, West Coast knocked back Geelong's interest in Brander to get the Kelly deal done

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

BT, For what it's worth, West Coast knocked back Geelong's interest in Brander to get the Kelly deal done

Then I'd see if they really don't want to get Kelly...

Or who would be a pick 16 trade. Or get no love from us. Adelaide or any other club with their current picks 13 & 16 looks like the obvious deal breaker to me on Kelly. But Wingard attracted pick 15 plus. Pick 16 doesn't fall away in the type of quality player needed to trade for it. WCE need to decide if they want him at a first rounder, or leave it until next year, maybe.

[Mofra]

Re: BT's very, very, very early 2018 post season / list management assessment

There’s a sizeable points difference in that trade. But I see a distinction. 13 & 16 is worth more on an objective points chart. It doesn’t factor that pick 7 could be elite like this year or the desperation of a club to land a local gun, most scribes pick it as Rozee. If that was a sticking point, 21/27 could sit out.

And a pick trade has to be done by tomorrow night. Holding 13 & 16 could be risky if West fell before either. When I first floated the pick swap it was more around targeting good players with the picks. I’d hold pick 7 at this point unless we could knock down a lot of last minute dominoes like last year with 13, 16 & 21 and move Adams on for 41 & 45 to cover the loss of 27. It seems like a lot of work in not much time.

Nice thinking, how does it change now knowing we hold 7, 27 and 32? If GWS bid at 19 that takes out pick 27 and pick 32 moves back 3 spots. We can cover the Khamis bid and the West points deficit (55 points) with later picks. Live trading with Adelaide on the night is still an option is an SA kid slips to 7, although I expect St Kilda think long and hard about what they do with pick 4 as one of Rozee or Rankine will be available (expecting Walsh at 1, Luko at pick 2 and another SA kid at pick 3).