Rolling Draft Order 2023

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

We just need Brisbane to implode in finals like they normally do (last year was an anomaly). They are very long odds to be getting a home QF, and could easily crash out in straight sets again.

Plenty to play out this season for us and them.

If we could get Pick 14 off them (straight sets) and Croft holds his late first/early second position, then we are really well placed to make some moves. The opposite (Lions to GF) and Croft rising, not as much fun to think about. But a hell of a lot more to think about.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

Round 16:

Ours:

Pick 14 (Dogs)
Pick 16 (Bris)
Pick 34 (Bris)
Pick 64 (Geel)
Pick 67 (Dogs)
Pick 69 (Melb)

(*761 Draft Points in last four picks: Croft as a F/S as high as Pick 18 with no deficit (inc. of discount) if required - as he may be late first round/early second rounder (say Pick 20):

So then then our draft hand is maybe 14, 16 & 18/Croft and end of draft pick/s and rookie elevation/s)


Giving:

Pick 32 (on top of 2022 Pick 30) for Rory Lobb, =Pick 13 in DPs
Pick 50 & 51 (Hunter pick) on-traded for upgrade to Pick 34
= Hunter for a future 16 pick, second round, upgrade


Free Agency Compo Tiers (at natural selection):

First: Pick 15
Second: Pick 33
Third: Pick 51 (Likely best case on Bailey Williams as a theoretical RFA)

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

Side note:

If we cut deeper, we could draft point trade Pick 34 to get a later pick and acquire more points back. That would probably require 7 open main list spots to use our picks/points per bid matching rules. So we’d have to cut fairly deep to get to that. But if we did, we’d get ourselves probably to keep a fourth rounder to use.

Say with North as just as example:

Out: Pick 34 (2nd Round tied to Lions)
In: Picks 38 (3rd) & 57 (4th tied to Hawks)

Nets us about 105 extra Draft Points. Which either allows for Croft going higher or giving us a Fourth Rounder to use for drafting.

[Mofra]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

Side note:

If we cut deeper, we could draft point trade Pick 34 to get a later pick and acquire more points back. That would probably require 7 open main list spots to use our picks/points per bid matching rules. So we’d have to cut fairly deep to get to that. But if we did, we’d get ourselves probably to keep a fourth rounder to use.

Say with North as just as example:

Out: Pick 34 (2nd Round tied to Lions)
In: Picks 38 (3rd) & 57 (4th tied to Hawks)

Nets us about 105 extra Draft Points. Which either allows for Croft going higher or giving us a Fourth Rounder to use for drafting.

Easily doable. IIRC we do have 'necessary' rookie upgrades which count towards list spots (they've reached their 3 year limit) and last year we left two spots open (one PS, one for mid-season) and we'll probably leave one open again, depending on trade week. That's 6 list spots before we even begin - 2 first rounders, 1 for Croft, 2 rookie upgrades, 1 left open.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

Easily doable. IIRC we do have 'necessary' rookie upgrades which count towards list spots (they've reached their 3 year limit) and last year we left two spots open (one PS, one for mid-season) and we'll probably leave one open again, depending on trade week. That's 6 list spots before we even begin - 2 first rounders, 1 for Croft, 2 rookie upgrades, 1 left open.

Also need to factor trades in taking up spots too.

Yep. The moving parts are:

Main list can re-balance to two more spots, reducing rookie list to four spots
Roarke, Scott & McNeil must be promoted or delisted
We need enough list vacancies as points with picks to use them all
Only Williams hold any value as a FA, should he want to leave (not much though)
Even if he left, if we bought a good FA we wouldn’t lose much in that compo if Williams left
Poulter signed for 6 months but you’d think he gets another year
Baker, McComb, Raak & JOD can stay on the rookie list
We have a lot of salary cap, like a LOT
Where Brisbane ultimately finish - having their first and second rounders
We may need to Draft Points trade our Second Rounder - but that means an extra vacancy is needed
Among others including how to accommodate player trades, if Croft rises, should we go for GCS First Rounder, should we trade future high picks which we haven’t done a lot of, plus working out the contracts to keep or trade offers on Naughton & English. If fringe players want a trade out. And an October surprise or too. Plus more!

So I think depending on things the number of delistings from the main list might need to be around 7 if we trade a couple of players in. But we have guys ready to be cut in that kind of range of numbers. Assuming we got three top 20 players (13, 16 & Croft), two or three needs based trades/FA’s, Scott elevated and some new rookies - while letting the bottom 7 players go - turn we are much better next year (in theory anyway) from a list perspective. Sam Power has a ton of work ahead of him.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

Round 17 (safely assuming Geelong beat North, Dees over Saints & no draw Crows/Dons):

Ours:

Pick 12 (Dogs)
Pick 16 (Bris)
Pick 34 (Bris)
Pick 65 (Geel)
Pick 66 (Dogs)
Pick 69 (Melb)

(*761 Draft Points in last four picks (without draft point trading Pick 34): Croft as a F/S as high as Pick 18 with no deficit (inc. of discount) if required - as he may be late first round/early second rounder (say Pick 20):

So then then our draft hand is maybe 12, 16 & 18/Croft and end of draft pick/s and rookie elevation/s)


Giving:

Pick 30 (on top of 2022 Pick 30) for Rory Lobb, =Pick 12 in DPs
Pick 48 & 51 (Hunter pick) on-traded for upgrade to Pick 34
= Hunter for a future 14 pick, second round, upgrade


Free Agency Compo Tiers (at natural selection):

First: Pick 13
Second: Pick 31
Third: Pick 49 (Likely best case on Bailey Williams as a theoretical RFA)

[azabob]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

BT, I think GWS are the club most likely to bid on Croft. They also typically have a handful of first and second round picks.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

BT, I think GWS are the club most likely to bid on Croft. They also typically have a handful of first and second round picks.

Would be good. Right now they have their and Richmond’s first rounder (way too high for Croft) and got rid of their second rounder to Brisbane last year. So we should be safe from them at this early stage.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

For the nerds who want to know the Croft stuff.

Consensus of Croft’s position in power rankings - Pick 19. So we say this is where we match the bid. End of First Round after other matched bids.

Pick 19 needs 948 Draft Points (DP)

Less 197 Discount

We need 751 Draft Points to secure Croft

Current Pick 34 (Bris) - 542 DP (short 209 DP)
Current Pick 65 (Geel) - 90 DP (short 119 DP)
Current Pick 66 (Dogs) - 80 DP (short 39 DP)
Current Pick 69 (Melb) - 49 DP (surplus 10 DP)
10 DP is Pick 73 back to us

So our last four picks secures Croft at Pick 19 and gives us back Pick 73


So in effect we (on consensus) have THREE FIRST ROUNDERS: Picks 12, 16, 19 (Croft) & 73.

So when Liam Pickering was crying about how long the Dunkley deal was taking with Sam Power demanding the future picks of 2nd & 4th (for two thirds) and getting the Schache pick - this is why. Just in case Croft was an ‘upside surprise’ we could have our first rounders and enough points to secure Croft without deficit as a late first rounder.


(Yes. If we have the list vacancies, then we can DP trade the Pick 34, if Croft went a little higher or we wanted to keep one of fourth rounders too. The last hour work in last years trade period are paying dividends)


But we need to have as many vacancies as draft picks to use all the DPs. Assuming we use and trade/free agent say 3 or 4 players. That means we need to have 7-8 player vacancies to cover the new players and have the picks to use the points. Another way of saying, we will probably need to cut 6-8 players depending on what we do with the list balance - moving two spots back onto the main list if we want to cut the list less but reducing the rookie list size. I think 7-8 is the likely delisting/retiring figure.


(Edit: Side note. Those picks to land Croft include the Schache & Hunter picks and some Dunkley bonus residual - added to our natural 3rd and 4th rounders. So Schache, a ‘lost’ Hunter and 3rd & 4th rounders to get a 200cm athletic Father/Son at the end of the First Round without deficit. A good outcome.)

[azabob]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

Thanks BT. I could live with Croft at pick 19 and beyond.

I’d love to also somehow snag another top 30 draft pick.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

Thanks BT. I could live with Croft at pick 19 and beyond.

I’d love to also somehow snag another top 30 draft pick.

Only way we can manage that is a live trade after Croft is done (assuming Croft goes at 19). Might be difficult as a top 30 pick probably necessitates trading the Future First. A big risk.

[azabob]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

Only way we can manage that is a live trade after Croft is done (assuming Croft goes at 19). Might be difficult as a top 30 pick probably necessitates trading the Future First. A big risk.

Ah of course. If we have it, it will be chewed up in the Croft points.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

Ah of course. If we have it, it will be chewed up in the Croft points.

Yep. Lots and lots of moving pieces!

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

Round 17:

Ours:

Pick 12 (Dogs)
Pick 16 (Bris)
Pick 34 (Bris)
Pick 66 (Dogs)
Pick 68 (Geel)
Pick 69 (Melb)

Enough Draft Points in last four picks (without draft point trading Pick 34) to secure Jordan Croft as a F/S as high as Pick 18 with no deficit (inc. of discount) if required - as he may be late first round/early second rounder (current power ranking consensus is Pick 19):

So then then our draft hand is maybe 12, 16 & 18 (Croft) and end of draft pick/s and rookie elevation/s


Giving:

Pick 30 (on top of 2022 Pick 30) for Rory Lobb, =Pick 12 in DPs
Pick 48 & 51 (Hunter pick) on-traded for upgrade to Pick 34
= Hunter for a future 14 pick upgrade in the mid/late draft order


Free Agency Compo Tiers (at natural selection):

First: Pick 13
Second: Pick 31
Third: Pick 49 (Likely best case on Bailey Williams as a theoretical RFA)

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

Round 18:

Ours:

Pick 14 (Dogs)
Pick 16 (Bris)
Pick 34 (Bris)
Pick 66 (Geel)
Pick 68 (Dogs)
Pick 69 (Melb)

Enough Draft Points in last four picks (without draft point trading Pick 34) to secure Jordan Croft as a F/S as high as Pick 18 with no deficit (inc. of discount) if required - as he may be late first round/early second rounder (current power ranking consensus range is Pick 13-19):

So then then our draft hand is maybe 14, 16 & 18 (Croft) and end of draft pick/s and rookie elevation/s


Giving:

Pick 32 (on top of 2022 Pick 30) for Rory Lobb, =Pick 13 in DPs
Pick 50 & 51 (Hunter pick) on-traded for upgrade to Pick 34
= Hunter for a future 16 pick upgrade in the mid/late draft order

(^^ However it’s the same amount of Draft Points, so it’s not really an upgrade unless traded for a player. So if Pick 34 is used for DPs then the Hunter pick upgrade is wiped out and his value is only the Melbourne Pick at the end of the third round)


Free Agency Compo Tiers (at natural selection):

First: Pick 15
Second: Pick 33
Third: Pick 51 (Likely best case on Bailey Williams as a theoretical RFA)