2018 Draft Watch

[Doc26]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

Isn’t the rule that you need to use the points from your next pick first?

That would mean that if he did go 25 we would still have to use 27 but we would then have change which would become a pick that would slot back in at it’s leftover value (if he went #25 it would leave 98.2 with the discount which would give us a pick after 64).

We really want the (unlikely) scenario of him going at 28+

The point I was making is that we could look to offload (live trade) our pick 27, effectively making pick 32 our first pick that points would be deducted from for our match for Rhylee.

In short IF a Club bids on Rhylee at 25, we only require pick 32 to match the points required, given that the 2nd round is a fixed discount deduction of 197 points (not 20% for first round matches).

We would need a Club interested to take our pick 27, say for a future 2nd, at the point in the draft where we know that we can cover Rhylee with our pick 32. Pick 25 as it stands is the earliest to cover pick 32. Although, there could be numerous permutations e.g a bid comes for Rhylee at 21 means our pick 32 & 63 would cover the points match; at pick 21 we would need a Club to take our pick 27 off us immediately before our match, for a favourable future pick in return.

We could potentially look to trade back into the draft with the future 2nd if we wanted, particularly if we haven’t live traded out 63 with 27.

As far as I’m aware this is a loophole yet to be determined by the AFL with the F/S and academy selections in conjunction with live trading. Unless this is addressed by HQ, watch those Clubs who can, exploit it. I suspect that HQ might address the loophole before draft night but it is the AFL and stuff ups do go hand in hand with their quick changes.

Hopefully we’re on top of it assuming HQ don’t put blocking measures in place beforehand

[divvydan]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

Probably the biggest way to exploit it would be having picks like North do, then waiting until Thomas is bid on, using the picks in the 40's, then try and trade back into this draft higher up. For us, waiting until pick 25 creates a very short opportunity that would only work if we believed that West was going to be bid on at 25/26 AND the player we would get at 32 wasn't as good as what we could get next year (assuming mid 2nd rd pick from 2019).

I do wonder if pick trading is allowed after a bid has been made and before it's accepted/declined. I would doubt that it's allowed.

Edit: Disregard the last line, it does appear that it is in fact allowed. From an article earlier this year..

[Talking about North and Thomas pre-trade period] This strategy would be to retain pick 9 and then, if a bid comes for Thomas before that selection, trade it live for a future 2019 pick before matching the bid, then match the bid with later picks in the 2018 draft.

The fact that clubs can make a manoeuvre like this isn’t something that’s been made clear in the AFL’s public announcement of live trading, so I again requested clarification from Patrick Keane. He said:

“If a club can complete a trade in the time before it is required to make its decision, they are allowed to trade. They won’t get any extension of time but they are permitted to do so if they can finalise it.”

https://www.theroar.com.au/2018/08/1...phole-exploit/

[The Adelaide Connection]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

The point I was making is that we could look to offload (live trade) our pick 27, effectively making pick 32 our first pick that points would be deducted from for our match for Rhylee.

In short IF a Club bids on Rhylee at 25, we only require pick 32 to match the points required, given that the 2nd round is a fixed discount deduction of 197 points (not 20% for first round matches).

We would need a Club interested to take our pick 27, say for a future 2nd, at the point in the draft where we know that we can cover Rhylee with our pick 32. Pick 25 as it stands is the earliest to cover pick 32. Although, there could be numerous permutations e.g a bid comes for Rhylee at 21 means our pick 32 & 63 would cover the points match; at pick 21 we would need a Club to take our pick 27 off us immediately before our match, for a favourable future pick in return.

We could potentially look to trade back into the draft with the future 2nd if we wanted, particularly if we haven’t live traded out 63 with 27.

As far as I’m aware this is a loophole yet to be determined by the AFL with the F/S and academy selections in conjunction with live trading. Unless this is addressed by HQ, watch those Clubs who can, exploit it. I suspect that HQ might address the loophole before draft night but it is the AFL and stuff ups do go hand in hand with their quick changes.

Hopefully we’re on top of it assuming HQ don’t put blocking measures in place beforehand

I think this is the wrong draft to be trading picks for future picks to avoid having to use it on a FS/NGA unless, like you say, we are fiddling the numbers via a loophole and end up back with another pick in the 20's directly after 32 has been used on West. But after we use #32 on West we are no guarantee that a club will swap us a future 2nd round for a pick in the 20's and we could be frozen out.

If we have to use up 27 on West, we are still left with #32 to pluck one of the numerous promising talents that will be left around that mark. GVGR wrote up an impressive top 40 a few pages back and their have been numerous Phantom Drafts that I have seen in the media etc. and the commonality to all of them is that this draft looks to bat deep. It looks as though numerous AA's will fall to picks into the 50's and at #32 we could have a shot at Boyd Woodcock, Bailey Williams, Chayce Jones, Ely Smith, Luke English, Jacob Koschitzke, etc.)

I am not convinced a 5 position or so upgrade from #32 to 20-something is worth getting shut out and there is no guarantee that next years second round will look anywhere near as good as this years.

[Doc26]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

Probably the biggest way to exploit it would be having picks like North do, then waiting until Thomas is bid on, using the picks in the 40's, then try and trade back into this draft higher up. For us, waiting until pick 25 creates a very short opportunity that would only work if we believed that West was going to be bid on at 25/26 AND the player we would get at 32 wasn't as good as what we could get next year (assuming mid 2nd rd pick from 2019).

I do wonder if pick trading is allowed after a bid has been made and before it's accepted/declined. I would doubt that it's allowed.

Edit: Disregard the last line, it does appear that it is in fact allowed. From an article earlier this year..



https://www.theroar.com.au/2018/08/1...phole-exploit/

I only used pick 25 as the ideal point for a Rhylee pick for us as that would mean our 32 does it alone. Yes, there’s little time but much of these machinations will / should be in motion with other Clubs now.

It could well be a pick for Rhylee comes in at 21 which would mean we need to find a Club at that point to live trade our 27, in which case our 32 and 63 gets it done on points. I’m sure there are other permutations to play out between now and our pick 27 that may mean something looks completely different to having to give up 27 for Rhylee.

[divvydan]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

I only used pick 25 as the ideal point for a Rhylee pick for us as that would mean our 32 does it alone. Yes, there’s little time but much of these machinations will / should be in motion with other Clubs now.

It could well be a pick for Rhylee comes in at 21 which would mean we need to find a Club at that point to live trade our 27, in which case our 32 and 63 gets it done on points. I’m sure there are other permutations to play out between now and our pick 27 that may mean something looks completely different to having to give up 27 for Rhylee.

The problem is that we don't get to choose to use 32 and 63. We would have to use 32 and 45 (unless we also trade 45) and then we'd get back a later pick in exchange (pick 52)

[Doc26]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

The problem is that we don't get to choose to use 32 and 63. We would have to use 32 and 45 (unless we also trade 45) and then we'd get back a later pick in exchange (pick 52)

I forgot about our pick 45 in the example used.

I have been talking more about the principle of the ‘loophole’ potentially changing the whole look of what our current picks look like.

This sounds more like a BT thing to come up with the optimum ‘live trade’ scenario for this to work in our favour, but it’s a distinct possibility given the loophole that we don’t require 27 specifically for a Rhylee match.

[divvydan]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

I forgot about our pick 45 in the example used.

I have been talking more about the principle of the ‘loophole’ potentially changing the whole look of what our current picks look like.

This sounds more like a BT thing to come up with the optimum ‘live trade’ scenario for this to work in our favour, but it’s a distinct possibility given the loophole that we don’t require 27 specifically for a Rhylee match.

Yes, agree on the general principle of it and would be interesting to see how it works out. As TAC mentioned earlier, I suspect it's the wrong year to trade out of the draft in favour of next year given the general strength of this draft but that could work both ways with other clubs willing to give a little more to get into the draft in that range.

Would certainly expect that the club has had discussions around this and with other clubs trying to put together a series of "what ifs" so that they'd know what their best course of action would be on the night.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

I forgot about our pick 45 in the example used.

I have been talking more about the principle of the ‘loophole’ potentially changing the whole look of what our current picks look like.

This sounds more like a BT thing to come up with the optimum ‘live trade’ scenario for this to work in our favour, but it’s a distinct possibility given the loophole that we don’t require 27 specifically for a Rhylee match.

I'm still of the view that our draft hand is near perfect for our unique circumstances. There are loopholes and opportunities to exploit the system. But the question is do we need to? I lean towards no this year.

If Rhylee comes in around Pick 20 (ESPN, Twomey, Champion Data) or even later like suggested above, I don't mind it at all. If we walk away with Rhylee for 27, 32 unchanged by draft points, Khamis afterwards taking up 45 and 63 for a tall needs pick then I'm very happy with that outcome. I'd hate to get too smart, trade off 27 for a 2019 second round pick and then have to use pick 75 to fill the last spot this year. Now I get to defer to others, but it seems the draft looks pretty good passed the 30's. If we can use the pick this year on someone we like, I say use it now. We don't know what Kellett or Liberatore could do next year and how that impacts our picks/points next year.

The circumstances or trade would need to be so damn good to me to change what we have already without tweaking things, I really like what we have without looking to change it just for shuffling purposes. I like that there's a loophole for us to exploit, I just don't see the need or the big reward, but I'm happy to be convinced. Our hand is really good though for next two years:

2018: 7, 27 (West?), 32, 45 (Khamis?), 63
2018: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 3rd (GCS<Haw), 5th (Liberatore & Kellett as potential FSs)

[The Doctor]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

Here's a hypothetical.

on draft night and we get to pick 11, currently held by GWS, and there is a player we considered using pick 7 on, lets say its Jordan Clark. Should we offer GWS our 2019 1st round pick and see if they bite?

[AshMac]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

Here's a hypothetical.

on draft night and we get to pick 11, currently held by GWS, and there is a player we considered using pick 7 on, lets say its Jordan Clark. Should we offer GWS our 2019 1st round pick and see if they bite?

I would. You’d have to assume we’ll improve on this year ladder wise and generally a year out the strength of the following draft can be accurately predicted. Be an interesting scenario too w JMac as he’d have insider knowledge of our longer term plans and would know where we’d place a player like that.

Course, a lot could have changed w Power in the seat.

[lemmon]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

Here's a hypothetical.

on draft night and we get to pick 11, currently held by GWS, and there is a player we considered using pick 7 on, lets say its Jordan Clark. Should we offer GWS our 2019 1st round pick and see if they bite?

I'd rather not, purely because we make it a lot harder to be a player come 2019 trade time. If Josh Kelly were to ask for a trade next year, we might be kicking ourselves that we'd already taken ourselves out of the conversation.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

Here's a hypothetical.

on draft night and we get to pick 11, currently held by GWS, and there is a player we considered using pick 7 on, lets say its Jordan Clark. Should we offer GWS our 2019 1st round pick and see if they bite?

I'd rather not, purely because we make it a lot harder to be a player come 2019 trade time. If Josh Kelly were to ask for a trade next year, we might be kicking ourselves that we'd already taken ourselves out of the conversation.

Tend to agree with Lemmon. We rule ourselves out of any bigger trades, God forbid anyone wants to come with us. Plus we don't know where our father-sons fit in yet. We'd be left with (picks with points) a second, a third and Hawks third. That doesn't give us all that much to play around with next year and boxes us in. We'd have to rate Clark or similar so highly that we'd be prepared to hamstring next year. I don't see the need, but if the recruiters want to go all in then I back them as I guess they know infinitely more than me. Well a smidge anyway...

[lemmon]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

Looking toward that back end of the draft, any interest in Marlion Pickett? I think his mix of speed and kicking would be a nice addition to our midfield and he'd be right for Round 1. Probably last chance saloon at 27 years old too.

[Bornadog]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

Knightmare's Phantom Draft rounds 1,2, 3 - here

[GVGjr]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

Here's a hypothetical.

on draft night and we get to pick 11, currently held by GWS, and there is a player we considered using pick 7 on, lets say its Jordan Clark. Should we offer GWS our 2019 1st round pick and see if they bite?

Great question Doc, I must admit I'm a bit interested in trying to double up on first round picks in the same draft if we rate players highly enough. Getting Naughton and Richards was a real positive for us last season.

I understand there might be some impacts to potential trades next year but there is no certainty on trades anyway.

I see us as a draft and develop club so if we can improve our position in a strong draft I'd consider it.