2018 Draft Watch

[Twodogs]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

What’s wrong with him?

Hamstring problems. He only played 3 TAC cup games this year because his hamstrings kept failing him.


That and the fact he is from Bendigo...

[Go_Dogs]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

Caldwell is flying up the rankings.

Looking forward to the draft, not looking forward to it being drawn out over 2 days...


Edit: now that BT's mentioned the timing with the test, maybe 2 days is a good outcome.

[divvydan]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

Will be happy if West hasn't been picked after Day 1.

[chef]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

How many are picked on day one?

[bulldogtragic]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

How many are picked on day one?

The first round.

Once we get into the back third of the first night, I'll be hanging on to my seat like Aussies (when we could bat) trying to see outs stumps on day 5 to draw the test, but win the series, when it comes to Rhylee. To get to stumps on draft night one with Rhylee not called would set us up perfectly for night two.

[hujsh]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

The first round. Once we get into the back third of the first night, I'll be hanging on to my seat like Aussies (when we could bat) trying to see outs stumps on day 5 to draw the test, but win the series, when it comes to Rhylee. To get to stumps on draft night one with Rhylee not called would set us up perfectly for night two.

I read that at first as holding onto your seat like when the Aussies are batting (as in nervously anticipating that next inevitable wicket when we're already 3/40-8/110)

[GVGjr]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

Does pick 32 shape as our most important selection

I've very confident that at pick 7 we will land a great player.
Smith, B.King, Caldwell, Rozee and Clark are all in the mix.
Smith will fully focus on becoming the best player he can and after so many got distracted since the flag that is a great quality for us.
King would gives us that versatile tall we need. A player with Jake Carlisle abilities without the nonsense
Caldwell is a quality midfielder, hard at it in the contest and able to hurt teams with his speed and skill.
Rozee the versatile and skillful who would add class to our list.
Clark a great accumulator who reads the play so well.

At pick 27 will be Rhylee West. We can't go wrong there and he will be a bargain

Pick 32 is the pick the one will shape our draft effort.
Do we get someone like Xavier O'Halloran, Tom Berry or Jez McLennan, do we go for a tall like Jacob Koschitzke or Bailey Williams?

Pick 45 seems ideal for Buku Khamis

And for our last pick do we go for a state league player like Clarke or Marsh or do we look at someone like Rendall as a long term project player

Plenty of quality picks will be available and we should have a great draft

[Doc26]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

Many unknowns in this draft with live trading.

If we were fortunate enough for Rhylee to somehow fall to pick 25 we could then buy him with our pick 32.

Knowing this we could then look to better our position by trying to offload our pick 27 to either improve pick 45 or even gain a new pick 33 for example, assuming that fits in the new live trading rules.

[The Adelaide Connection]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

Many unknowns in this draft with live trading.

If we were fortunate enough for Rhylee to somehow fall to pick 25 we could then buy him with our pick 32.

Knowing this we could then look to better our position by trying to offload our pick 27 to either improve pick 45 or even gain a new pick 33 for example, assuming that fits in the new live trading rules.

Isn’t the rule that you need to use the points from your next pick first?

That would mean that if he did go 25 we would still have to use 27 but we would then have change which would become a pick that would slot back in at it’s leftover value (if he went #25 it would leave 98.2 with the discount which would give us a pick after 64).

We really want the (unlikely) scenario of him going at 28+

[bulldogtragic]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

After pick 7, id like to go for needs as long as it's not too much a stretch:

Honeychurch - forward/mid - covered by Duryea
Dahlhaus - mid/fwd - covered by Lloyd
C. Smith - tough mid sized fwd, pinch hit mid - covered by Gowers
Biggs - HBF - covered by Lynch
Redpath - KPF - ******
Collins - KPD - ******
Roughead - Ruck/KPP - ******
Adams - KPD - ******
Campbell - Ruck - ******

So we are down in the KPP department big time. Our five vacancies are 194cm or over, two defenders, one forward, one forward/ruck, one ruck.

We are adding in West (mid/fwd) & Khamis (rebounder) most likely. Khamis may grow a few extra centimetres to 194cm but he's not a KPP player it seems. So after adding them in, we have three vanancies (likely 7, 32 & 63) still with five talls not replaced. But we still need top end midfielders too.

So two strategies might be:

7. King (KPP), 32. McHenry (small forward) 63. Tall
7. Smith/Caldwell/Rozee, 32. Williams (KPF), 63. Tall

Then perhaps look to the rookie draft. But that looks like this:

Honeychurch - forward/mid - covered by Duryea
Dahlhaus - mid/fwd - covered by Lloyd
C. Smith - tough mid sized fwd, pinch hit mid - covered by Gowers
Biggs - HBF - covered by Lynch

Redpath - KPF - King/Williams
Collins - KPD - Khamis (smaller)
Roughead - Ruck/KPP - West (smaller, but why not ruck him...)
Adams - KPD - Smith/Caldwell/McHenry (smaller)
Campbell - Ruck - Pick 63 tall


So perhaps we look to the rookie draft to balance things with KPP depth out a little bit (2-3 talls down on the above). We elevated two smaller players, so rookieing another one or two talls might be the way. Michael Apeness at Freo will go at pick 5 and I don't think we will take him with 63. Hugh Goddard is likely to be there at pick 6 in the rookie draft, if he passed our medicals and we thought we could get him on the park, that might be an option for a KPD. I think we need to look at a mature ruckman (one that Bevo might actually play if needed), I'm not sure we should use pick 63 in the ND on one. But if we could add one in on the rookie draft, with a KPP, then albeit rookie list level talent, we've started to get some depth passed just two KPFs and five KPDs and two rucks which we currently have.

It goes without saying that talent is the priority so the pick 7 selection shapes the actual names, but with 27 & 45 needed for West & Khamis (hopefully), then hopefully we'd be focussing 32 & 63 on need (within reason). Then using the rookie draft to balance out depth in areas are currently low in. I'd be pretty happy with such a list rebalancing or realigning after a really good turnover by Power.

[GVGjr]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

Isn’t the rule that you need to use the points from your next pick first?

That would mean that if he did go 25 we would still have to use 27 but we would then have change which would become a pick that would slot back in at it’s leftover value (if he went #25 it would leave 98.2 with the discount which would give us a pick after 64).

We really want the (unlikely) scenario of him going at 28+

Yes it does from my understanding, pick 27 (Dahlhaus comp) will be used on West and it's really a question of if our next pick at 32 needs to move to meet the points required to match the West nomination. ie pick 32 might become pick 35.

[divvydan]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

Yes, it's definitely the next available pick that is used and if that isn't enough points to cover it, then the one after and so on. At the end of the transaction, any left over points are then given back as a late pick.

Just looking at our situation. We have pick 27 currently and there are at least 2 players I would expect to receive a bid before West, namely Blakey and Thomas. It's also possible that Quaynor gets bid on before West as well. Sydney have pick 26 but both North and Collingwood's first picks are in the 40's, so it's quite possible that 27 gets pushed back to 28 or even 29.

Scenarios:

1. Only Blakey bid on earlier, we keep 27 and 32
2. Blakey and Thomas bid on earlier, 27 becomes 28 and 32 becomes 33
3. Blakey, Thomas and Quaynor bid on earlier, 27 becomes 29 and 32 becomes 34

What we give up with Bid at Pick	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	28*
Scenario 1	27,32 (get back 41)	27,32 (get back 40)	27,32 (get back 38)	27,32 (get back 37)	27,32 (get back 35)	27,32 (get back 33)	27	27	27	27	27	27	32
Scenario 2	28,33 (get back 45)	28,33 (get back 43)	28,33 (get back 41)	28,33 (get back 39)	28,33 (get back 37)	28,33 (get back 35)	28,33 (get back 34)	28	28	28	28	28	28
Scenario 3	29,34 (get back 48)	29,34 (get back 46)	29,34 (get back 44)	29,34 (get back 42)	29,34 (get back 40)	29,34 (get back 38)	29,34 (get back 36)	29	29	29	29	29	29

* Bid at pick 28 becomes bid at pick 27 when we drop from 27 to 28/29.

Just as an FYI, I don't think there's a bid that can come in and use more than 27 and 32.


EDIT: Removed option to get back a late pick after only giving up one pick to match a bid. Since you can only have as many picks as list spots open, it should not be possible to get back a pick in those circumstances.

[AshMac]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

Champion data ranks the top 30 prospects this year.... very different line up to the touted phantom order....

Capture123a.JPG

[Go_Dogs]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

Pick 32 is the pick the one will shape our draft effort.
Do we get someone like Xavier O'Halloran, Tom Berry or Jez McLennan, do we go for a tall like Jacob Koschitzke or Bailey Williams?

Pick 45 seems ideal for Buku Khamis

And for our last pick do we go for a state league player like Clarke or Marsh or do we look at someone like Rendall as a long term project player

Plenty of quality picks will be available and we should have a great draft

Agree that pick 32 is crucial for us.

If it holds at 32, there is likely to be a few players we rate in our top 25 that slip through that will be very enticing for us. I'm happy to go with a best available approach again and if that means we end up with a draft with Smith, West, O'Halloran then I'm comfortable with it even though it's not a balanced approach.

We were too heavy for tall players last year and if we can add 3 quality runners early that's a great result.

I like the suggestion of Rendell at 63, along with Marsh as a mature age player. This may be where we just look to balance our selections and take the best available tall (KP or ruck) and/or ready made tall, as we have a need for both development and immediate coverage.

[GVGjr]

Re: 2018 Draft Watch

Agree that pick 32 is crucial for us.

If it holds at 32, there is likely to be a few players we rate in our top 25 that slip through that will be very enticing for us. I'm happy to go with a best available approach again and if that means we end up with a draft with Smith, West, O'Halloran then I'm comfortable with it even though it's not a balanced approach.

We were too heavy for tall players last year and if we can add 3 quality runners early that's a great result.

I like the suggestion of Rendell at 63, along with Marsh as a mature age player. This may be where we just look to balance our selections and take the best available tall (KP or ruck) and/or ready made tall, as we have a need for both development and immediate coverage.

I think if were to land say Smith or Caldwell at pick 7 and West at pick 27 then we may be tempted to balance the list at 32 but that becomes a lot harder if say a player we rated in top 20 was sill available at 32. My guess is we would select the best available

Pick 63 on the other hand could be very needs based