2018 Draft Watch

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  • choconmientay
    WOOF Member
    • Dec 2009
    • 1312

    #721
    Re: 2018 Draft Watch

    Another roar author Josh Elliott, phantom draft nominated Ben King for our first pick

    ... Still, I’ve had a crack here at a top 25 phantom draft for 2018, and just to keep things as simple as possible, I’m picking as on the current order rather than trying to presume what trades might happen.

    Pick 1 – Carlton Blues – Sam Walsh
    183 cm, 74kg

    Carlton face a rather pleasant dilemma with pick 1 as they’ll look to choose between Walsh or his main rival for the top spot, Jack Lukosius.

    Walsh has been the best-performed player of the draft pool certainly – a consistently prolific midfielder with great leadership characteristics.

    196cm key forward Lukosius however arguably has the greater scope to develop into a generational match-winning player at AFL level, in the mould of Nick Riewoldt.

    My thoughts prior to the trade period leaned towards Carlton picking Lukosius on the basis that his talent might be too good to pass up – you don’t know when you’ll get a shot at a player like him again.

    However the fact that the Blues traded in Mitch McGovern makes it pretty clear to me that they believe Walsh is their man here, and reasonably so.

    Pick 2 – Gold Coast Suns – Jack Lukosius
    196cm, 84kg

    Expect the Suns to take whichever of the top two slides through to this pick, Lukosius being the more likely. They’d love to have Walsh though, his character has been highly praised and he seems likely to be the loyal type.

    Pick 3 – Gold Coast Suns – Izak Rankine
    180cm, 76kg

    Obviously a big consideration for the Suns when it comes to their selections will be bringing in players who they believe will stick around at the club long term – the problem is, there’s no clear-cut way to tell who will or won’t.

    A lot of theories go around. My logic with this selection is, bring in the player who is most likely to have an instant impact, and that gives them the best chance of feeling like they fit in and want to stay at the club.

    Rankine is simply the most talented player left on the board here, if not the most talented in the whole draft. He’s fast, creative and thrilling – the whole package.

    His thrilling heroics could help lift the spirits of his teammates and give Suns fans something to get excited about as soon as Round 1, 2019.

    Pick 4 – St Kilda Saints – Connor Rozee
    184cm, 72kg

    If you’re looking purely at talent, key forward Max King is probably the next player off the board.

    And St Kilda could well make that call – King has actually been doing his rehab from an ACL injury that kept him out of all but the early portion of this season at their facilities, so they’re going to be pretty familiar with him at this point and have a clear idea of whether or not they want him.

    The issue for me with that selection is that if St Kilda draft King there’s just no way he winds up playing in the same forward line as all of Josh Bruce, Paddy McCartin, Tim Membrey and Josh Battle.

    Drafting King probably means trading one of Bruce or McCartin out down the line and likely for little in the way of compensation, meaning the Saints probably have only a small net gain of talent on their list.

    Instead I’d draft a player who brings the qualities their side lacks in Connor Rozee.

    While this is a bit earlier than most pundits would think Rozee goes, if the top three falls as I have it above, his class and creativity make him a great pick for the Saints here.


    Pick 5 – Port Adelaide Power – Max King
    201cm, 86kg

    Given the number of high-quality South Australian prospects in this year’s draft, most have the view that Port’s aggressive efforts to move up the order have been with the goal of snagging one of them.

    And that may well be true – Lukosius will be gone by this pick but there’s every chance that one or even both of Rankine or Rozee is available here.

    But, on the off chance that the top four falls as I’ve picked, I don’t see any reason why the Power shouldn’t pick a Victorian.

    Todd Marshall aside they have little in the way of developing key forwards, and with Charlie Dixon having recently turned 28, his retirement is something they should be planning for now.

    King could well have been the No.1 pick this year if not for his ACL injury, and if Port can get him with the fifth selection it could prove a massive bargain.

    Pick 6 – Gold Coast Suns – Bailey Smith
    184cm, 79kg

    The Suns are basically looking at a choice between tall or small here as they decide between Smith or Ben King.

    I’d go with Smith – again partly due to the logic that he’s probably the one who is going to be most AFL-ready, and therefore has the best chance of bonding with the team and becoming part of the club most quickly.

    Smith is a prolific inside midfielder who has a little bit of speed, and he has also played well as a halfback.

    The Suns need talent pretty much anywhere on the ground but I reckon Smith would balance out the other selections of Lukosius and Rankine well.

    Pick 7 – Western Bulldogs – Ben King
    201cm, 85kg

    With this pick the Dogs are left to take whoever of this draft’s famed top seven falls through to them, but they’d have to be pretty happy if it’s Ben King.

    Ben – the win brother of Max King – is more of a swingman. He played a lot up forward this year, but many pundits reckon he’ll be a defender at AFL level.

    The Dogs would be a good fit because unlike other clubs, they won’t feel the need to try to make him play forward, given they’ve already got top-line prospects Tom Boyd and Josh Schahce to play that role.

    They’d be more than happy to play him in defence as the long term partner to Aaron Naughton – something that’s bound to appeal given they just lost Marcus Adams.

    ...

    Pick 25 – Rhylee West – Western Bulldogs (matching bid from West Coast)
    180cm, 80kg

    The son of Bulldogs legend Scott West could easily attract a bid earlier than this, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it comes a little later. Has some similarities to Luke Dahlhaus as a smaller inside mid who can play forward, he could step into that spot at the Dogs fairly quickly.
    In full ...
    It always seems impossible until it's done. Nelson Mandela

    Comment

    • The Adelaide Connection
      Coaching Staff
      • Jan 2009
      • 2844

      #722
      Re: 2018 Draft Watch

      Originally posted by choconmientay
      Theroar mock draft has got us taking Caldwell, passing on Rozee for Adelaide to pick him after our pick.
      Rhylee name is not mentioned in the top 20.

      2018 AFL mock draft: Round 1



      In full ...
      I've mentioned this elsewhere, but if we do look to pass on Rozee for Smith or whoever (and Adelaide still hold 8) we should definitely bluff them into a trade swap. We'll give you 7 and 27 for 8 and 16/21 and let you have Rozee.

      21 may even sneak in before the West bid (effectively handing us another AA quality young gun). I am not sure how that will impact covering West and Khamis, but sounds good in theory.

      Comment

      • hujsh
        Hall of Fame
        • Nov 2007
        • 11962

        #723
        Re: 2018 Draft Watch

        Originally posted by The Adelaide Connection
        I've mentioned this elsewhere, but if we do look to pass on Rozee for Smith or whoever (and Adelaide still hold 8) we should definitely bluff them into a trade swap. We'll give you 7 and 27 for 8 and 16/21 and let you have Rozee.

        21 may even sneak in before the West bid (effectively handing us another AA quality young gun). I am not sure how that will impact covering West and Khamis, but sounds good in theory.
        If West is bid on that early then we're better off having 16/21 to cover him than 27. We might even get to use 27 on a player and points on Khamis in that scenario.
        [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

        Comment

        • The Adelaide Connection
          Coaching Staff
          • Jan 2009
          • 2844

          #724
          Re: 2018 Draft Watch

          Did
          Originally posted by hujsh
          If West is bid on that early then we're better off having 16/21 to cover him than 27. We might even get to use 27 on a player and points on Khamis in that scenario.
          Yeah I get that the lower pick the better (hopefully points leftover etc.), my query was more about if we did get say 16 or 21 (send Adelaide 7&27 for 8&16/21) and then the bid came in after that (ie we hold 21 and take a player then West bid comes in at 22) would we still have the points for West and Khamis?

          I did a bit of digging:
          Pick 32- 584 Points
          Pick 45- 347 Points
          Pick 63- 112 Points

          A bid at 22 would be 845 points - discount (197 for anything after Pick 18)= 648
          That chews up #32 and 64 points of Pick 45 (leaving 283 points ~ Pick 50)

          That means we would have 395 points left to match Khamis (with discount equates to 592 ~ pick 32). Surprisingly, it looks like we could pull it off.

          That would mean:
          Pick 8- Smith etc.
          Pick 16/21- Another AA type. Loads on offer, but i’d Love Hately/Woodcock
          West
          Khamis
          Pick 75- Gowers
          Pick 82- Lynch

          This probably leaves us one pick short, but maybe we could also pull Adelaide’s #83 in the deal. That way 75 could be Hayes/state leaguer and 82 and 83 the upgrades. Edit: Scrap this last part, we won’t have enough spots on the list! We might need to look at the Rookie list for Hayes etc. if they are still around.

          Comment

          • hujsh
            Hall of Fame
            • Nov 2007
            • 11962

            #725
            Re: 2018 Draft Watch

            Originally posted by The Adelaide Connection
            Did

            Yeah I get that the lower pick the better (hopefully points leftover etc.), my query was more about if we did get say 16 or 21 (send Adelaide 7&27 for 8&16/21) and then the bid came in after that (ie we hold 21 and take a player then West bid comes in at 22) would we still have the points for West and Khamis?

            I did a bit of digging:
            Pick 32- 584 Points
            Pick 45- 347 Points
            Pick 63- 112 Points

            A bid at 22 would be 845 points - discount (197 for anything after Pick 18)= 648
            That chews up #32 and 64 points of Pick 45 (leaving 283 points ~ Pick 50)

            That means we would have 395 points left to match Khamis (with discount equates to 592 ~ pick 32). Surprisingly, it looks like we could pull it off.

            That would mean:
            Pick 8- Smith etc.
            Pick 16/21- Another AA type. Loads on offer, but i’d Love Hately/Woodcock
            West
            Khamis
            Pick 75- Gowers
            Pick 82- Lynch

            This probably leaves us one pick short, but maybe we could also pull Adelaide’s #83 in the deal. That way 75 could be Hayes/state leaguer and 82 and 83 the upgrades. Edit: Scrap this last part, we won’t have enough spots on the list! We might need to look at the Rookie list for Hayes etc. if they are still around.
            I'd go into deficit if it means getting an extra early pick
            [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

            Comment

            • ledge
              Hall of Fame
              • Dec 2007
              • 14552

              #726
              Re: 2018 Draft Watch

              But if West goes before 20 we lose in that scenario.
              Bring back the biff

              Comment

              • GVGjr
                Moderator
                • Nov 2006
                • 45571

                #727
                Re: 2018 Draft Watch

                Originally posted by ledge
                But if West goes before 20 we lose in that scenario.
                How do we lose? We still have 2 or 3 good picks to follow
                Western Bulldogs Football Club "Where it's cool to drool"

                Comment

                • ledge
                  Hall of Fame
                  • Dec 2007
                  • 14552

                  #728
                  Re: 2018 Draft Watch

                  Sorry I mean 15 if West gets picked at 15 we take him at 16 and effectively we lost 7 for 8
                  Bring back the biff

                  Comment

                  • ledge
                    Hall of Fame
                    • Dec 2007
                    • 14552

                    #729
                    Re: 2018 Draft Watch

                    I’d we did the trade 7and 27 for 8 and 21 and he goes before 21 we are in same position, if West goes after 21 we are in front.
                    I guess it all depends on where West goes, but it looks like it’s somewhere between 15 and 20 by our rekonning
                    Bring back the biff

                    Comment

                    • hujsh
                      Hall of Fame
                      • Nov 2007
                      • 11962

                      #730
                      Re: 2018 Draft Watch

                      Originally posted by ledge
                      I’d we did the trade 7and 27 for 8 and 21 and he goes before 21 we are in same position, if West goes after 21 we are in front.
                      I guess it all depends on where West goes, but it looks like it’s somewhere between 15 and 20 by our rekonning
                      Originally posted by ledge
                      Sorry I mean 15 if West gets picked at 15 we take him at 16 and effectively we lost 7 for 8
                      Well if we're trading 7 for 8 and an upgrade I think the assumption is that we're okay to let Adelaide take Rozee (seems the most likely SA boy to be available if anyone is) because we're just as happy to take someone else. So we aren't really down.

                      If the pick is as low as 15 then we're better off in our attempts to cover West and Khamis for points. We at least get to keep 32. instead of having it wiped/downgraded with 27.
                      [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

                      Comment

                      • choconmientay
                        WOOF Member
                        • Dec 2009
                        • 1312

                        #731
                        Re: 2018 Draft Watch

                        Who from 15 onward would you think will call out West's name?

                        13. Adelaide (from Carlton in Mitch McGovern trade). Don't think his name will be mention that early.
                        14. Fremantle (from GWS in Rory Lobb trade) - Interstate team. Don't think they are link to West in any news.
                        15. Port Adelaide (from Hawthorn in Chad Wingard trade) - They have their own problem to work on and draft SA players
                        16. Adelaide (from Melbourne 2017) - Same as Port.
                        17. Richmond. Would there any link and why they would need West?
                        18. Brisbane (from Collingwood in Dayne Beams trade). Would they even look at West?
                        19. Greater Western Sydney (from Fremantle in Rory Lobb trade). Would we have burned bridges to JMac for him to call West name out and force our hands?
                        20. West Coast (compensation for losing Scott Lycett to Port Adelaide). Interstate team. Don't think they are link to West in any news.

                        I could see him even slip down the order further and Pick 27 or later picks would be used on him.
                        It always seems impossible until it's done. Nelson Mandela

                        Comment

                        • divvydan
                          WOOF Member
                          • Oct 2009
                          • 1502

                          #732
                          Re: 2018 Draft Watch

                          Thing is though, what's in it for Adelaide to go from 8 to 7? If we're willing to give up pick 7 in a draft that most people believe the top 7 are a step above, then Adelaide has to assume that whoever we were going to pick at 7 would still be there at 8, otherwise we'd be shooting ourselves in the foot. If that's the case, then Adelaide has no reason to want pick 7 since we wouldn't be taking the person they'd want pick 7 for anyway.

                          Comment

                          • Bulldog Joe
                            Premiership Moderator
                            • Jul 2009
                            • 5628

                            #733
                            Re: 2018 Draft Watch

                            Originally posted by The Adelaide Connection
                            This probably leaves us one pick short, but maybe we could also pull Adelaide’s #83 in the deal. That way 75 could be Hayes/state leaguer and 82 and 83 the upgrades. Edit: Scrap this last part, we won’t have enough spots on the list! We might need to look at the Rookie list for Hayes etc. if they are still around.
                            We don't actually run out of picks, we run out of list spots.

                            This is why we need to delist Campbell/Webb etc even if we intend to draft them.

                            The risk of someone else taking them is irrelevant as that would do us a favour and we would simply take the next best available.

                            Any delisted player can be redrafted or rookie listed by the club who delisted them if available at that clubs pick.
                            Life is to be Enjoyed not Endured

                            Comment

                            • soupman
                              Bulldog Team of the Century
                              • Nov 2007
                              • 5159

                              #734
                              Re: 2018 Draft Watch

                              Originally posted by divvydan
                              Thing is though, what's in it for Adelaide to go from 8 to 7? If we're willing to give up pick 7 in a draft that most people believe the top 7 are a step above, then Adelaide has to assume that whoever we were going to pick at 7 would still be there at 8, otherwise we'd be shooting ourselves in the foot. If that's the case, then Adelaide has no reason to want pick 7 since we wouldn't be taking the person they'd want pick 7 for anyway.
                              Thats the flaw I found as well. Effectively it's the same as us hoping Adelaide tell us "we will give you pick 15 if you don't take Rozee at 7".

                              The way to play it, if we were so inclined, would be to take Rozee at 7, then turn around and tell Adelaide we are happy with Rozee, but if they want him we will take their pick 8 and 15 instead.
                              I should leave it alone but you're not right

                              Comment

                              • hujsh
                                Hall of Fame
                                • Nov 2007
                                • 11962

                                #735
                                Re: 2018 Draft Watch

                                Originally posted by soupaman
                                Thats the flaw I found as well. Effectively it's the same as us hoping Adelaide tell us "we will give you pick 15 if you don't take Rozee at 7".

                                The way to play it, if we were so inclined, would be to take Rozee at 7, then turn around and tell Adelaide we are happy with Rozee, but if they want him we will take their pick 8 and 15 instead.
                                Can we do that? I was under the impression we can trade picks but not players once they're selected.
                                [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

                                Comment

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