Rolling Draft Order 2023

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

Round 20:

Ours:

Pick 11 (Dogs)
Pick 16 (Bris)
Pick 35 (Bris)
Pick 66 (Geel)
Pick 67 (Dogs)
Pick 71 (Melb)

(Pushed out by R2 & R3 North charity picks now with Freo - now factored into the order)

Enough Draft Points in last four picks (without draft point trading Pick 35) to secure Jordan Croft as a F/S as high as Pick 18 with no deficit (inc. of discount) if required - as he may be late first round/early second rounder (current power ranking consensus range is Pick 13-19):

So then then our draft hand is maybe 11, 16 & 18 (Croft) and end of draft pick/s and rookie elevation/s


Giving:

Pick 30 (on top of 2022 Pick 30) for Rory Lobb, =Pick 13 in DPs
Pick 49 & 53 (Hunter pick) on-traded for upgrade to Pick 35
= Hunter for a future 14 pick upgrade in the mid/late draft order

(^^ However it?s the same amount of Draft Points, so it?s not really an upgrade unless traded for a player. So if Pick 35 is used for DPs then the Hunter pick upgrade is wiped out and his value is only the Melbourne Pick at the end of the third round)


Free Agency Compo Tiers (at natural selection):

First: Pick 12
Second: Pick 30
Third: Pick 48 (Likely best case on Bailey Williams as a theoretical RFA)

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

If North get pick 3 compo, and if Himmelberg leaves GWS with first round compo - then the Brisbane first will fall further.

The order will slide and our draft points along with it, marginally, so I’d think Pick 35 (then 37) is absolutely for sale for some extra points.

If Brisbane have Pick 18–20 plus academy bids by at least GCS and maybe Hawks - then that pick will be as high as Pick 23. Croft is viewed from Pick 13-19 by the main draft watchers. So that pick is absolutely being traded.

[Sedat]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

If North get pick 3 compo, and if Himmelberg leaves GWS with first round compo - then the Brisbane first will fall further.

The order will slide and our draft points along with it, marginally, so I?d think Pick 35 (then 37) is absolutely for sale for some extra points.

If Brisbane have Pick 18?20 plus academy bids by at least GCS and maybe Hawks - then that pick will be as high as Pick 23. Croft is viewed from Pick 13-19 by the main draft watchers. So that pick is absolutely being traded.

Their unexpected loss on the weekend leaves them very vulnerable to an away QF, which they will lose. All it takes then is one more SF loss at home and their 1st pick becomes a mid-range one (they lost home SF's in 2019, 2020 and 2021). Ashcroft out of their midfield rotations really hurts Neale, if the oppo is prepared to run a strong tag. Touk Miller set the blueprint on the weekend and I don't think Neale will be having too many easy possessions for the rest of the season, especially in September. Dunks is not the kick-starter in the midfield that they need when Neale is down - to be fair, none of their other mids are.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

Their unexpected loss on the weekend leaves them very vulnerable to an away QF, which they will lose. All it takes then is one more SF loss at home and their 1st pick becomes a mid-range one (they lost home SF's in 2019, 2020 and 2021). Ashcroft out of their midfield rotations really hurts Neale, if the oppo is prepared to run a strong tag. Touk Miller set the blueprint on the weekend and I don't think Neale will be having too many easy possessions for the rest of the season, especially in September. Dunks is not the kick-starter in the midfield that they need when Neale is down - to be fair, none of their other mids are.

Straight sets (we all hope) gets them Pick 14 - into Pick 16 with McKay/Himmelberg compo. Still looking at possibly three matched bids meaning it still blows out to Pick 19 as a live selection. Not sure we want to be holding that if Croft comes in around the Pick 13 Twomey suggests.

But in a strong draft, should be a good trading pick for the right player.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

ESPN have GCS kids at picks 2, 9 & 11.

They need after discount roughly 4,000 Draft Points

They hold roughly 2,800 Draft Points - not including their first rounder which is for sale

If they sold Pick 6 (after McKay compo) to us for say Pick 11 & 16 they get roughly 2,400

That gets them to 5,200 Draft Points with a trade with us and secures them all.

However, there?s unlikely to be 10 vacancies at GCS so they are unlikely to use all their draft points. If they threw back some unwanted later picks to us, even if we offer a future 3rd pick to sweep some up, I wonder:

Could we trade up to say a Watson/Duursma. Trade pick 35 for a player. Use those later GCS unwanted/needed picks to replace the points from Pick 35 added to our late picks - Then take Croft.

So Watson/Duursma, Croft, traded player with 35 (Schultz, Lohmann, Henry types etc), upgrade Scott with four spots for later picks &/or other rookie upgrades, re- draft a delisted player, or DFA/SSP.

But we highly likely need to turnover pretty much all the currently uncontracted MAIN LIST players (assuming TOB gets the reported year extension) to have enough free spots to pull that off. Bruce, Croz, Bedendo, McLean, Sweet, Buku, Hannan & Duryea all to go to pull the strategy off.

[azabob]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

ESPN have GCS kids at picks 2, 9 & 11.

They need after discount roughly 4,000 Draft Points

They hold roughly 2,800 Draft Points - not including their first rounder which is for sale

If they sold Pick 6 (after McKay compo) to us for say Pick 11 & 16 they get roughly 2,400

That gets them to 5,200 Draft Points with a trade with us and secures them all.

However, there?s unlikely to be 10 vacancies at GCS so they are unlikely to use all their draft points. If they threw back some unwanted later picks to us, even if we offer a future 3rd pick to sweep some up, I wonder:

Could we trade up to say a Watson/Duursma. Trade pick 35 for a player. Use those later GCS unwanted/needed picks to replace the points from Pick 35 added to our late picks - Then take Croft.

So Watson/Duursma, Croft, traded player with 35 (Schultz, Lohmann, Henry types etc), upgrade Scott with four spots for later picks &/or other rookie upgrades, re- draft a delisted player, or DFA/SSP.

But we highly likely need to turnover pretty much all the currently uncontracted MAIN LIST players (assuming TOB gets the reported year extension) to have enough free spots to pull that off. Bruce, Croz, Bedendo, McLean, Sweet, Buku, Hannan & Duryea all to go to pull the strategy off.

Thanks BT. Amazing snapshot.

I think its fair to say I have been one of, if the most out spoken about PASSING on Croft, but can 100% get behind the above play. As you mentioned BT, the sticking point will be availability of list spots.

I'm actually wondering if Williams now stays. His form has dropped off, talk of contract signing has gone quite. We still may have that ace up our sleeve to play.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

Thanks BT. Amazing snapshot.

I think its fair to say I have been one of, if the most out spoken about PASSING on Croft, but can 100% get behind the above play. As you mentioned BT, the sticking point will be availability of list spots.

I'm actually wondering if Williams now stays. His form has dropped off, talk of contract signing has gone quite. We still may have that ace up our sleeve to play.

Would be ironic if we took another winger off Freo (Henry) so they go after a free agent winger (owing to few picks) went after and got Williams and if that was the pick that paid for Henry.

If by some fluke Williams hit second round compo (circa pick 30). That’s an interesting debate about matching it if it was to be traded for say a Lohmann/Schultz and Henry with Pick 35. But the likely compo more like Pick 50, isn’t much compo.

I guess we wait and see.

[chef]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

Ralphy mentioned we want to package up our 2 firsts for a top 10 pick to get a mid.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

Ralphy mentioned we want to package up our 2 firsts for a top 10 pick to get a mid.

Ripping me off again!

[Grantysghost]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

Ralphy mentioned we want to package up our 2 firsts for a top 10 pick to get a mid.

Yes please

[ledge]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

Ralphy mentioned we want to package up our 2 firsts for a top 10 pick to get a mid.

In and under mid I gather , we have enough outside mids.

[The Doctor]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

Ralphy mentioned we want to package up our 2 firsts for a top 10 pick to get a mid.

Many of us have speculated we could attempt to do this. Which club with a top 10 pick could be willing to split their pick for our 2 late round firsts. Then if successful which player could be on our radar?

As it stands now we have picks 14 & 16. This could likely change by the end of the season but for the sake of exercise lets see what the possibilities might be. Based on current ladder positions I'll speculate a bit;

West Coast Likely to get pick 1 or 2. They might be willing to split their pick but will most likely demand a top 5 pick as part of the deal. I cant see getting pick 1 even if we threw in our future 1st as well as 14 & 16. Melbourne would be in prime position with picks 4, 15 &23. All picks that could land them quality WA players like Curtin, Tholstrup, Edwards, Hardeman, Sanchez.

North Melbourne - Can't see them trading with us either at this pointy end of the draft.

Hawthorn Same as North

Melbourne Holding Freo's 1st pick (4) They either hold or try to get to pick 1

Gold Coast Currently with pick 5. They need lots of points for 4 excellent academy players who will attract high bids. This is probably our best chance but everyone will come for this pick. GWS in pole position with picks 8 & 12 currently.

Essendon with pick 6 cant see them trading this juicy pick for what we have. If they get a compensation pick for Parish then they may be interested

Adelaide pick 7 same of Essendon but if we threw in a future 1st? Why would WE do that?

GWS with picks 8 & 12 they either hold or move up

Sydney they have pick 9. It could get interesting here. They will lose this pick in any deal for Barrass. So WCE will get it. Would they on trade it to us for 14 & 16? I see that as a possibility.

Geelong holding pick 10. Maybe a chance. Splitting for 14 & 16 might appeal if they want to get more youth into their aging list. They have nothing to fling back unless a future pick in lower rounds appeals to us.

So Gold Coast & West Coast via Sydney might be our best chances.


The next past of the exercise is to try and evaluate which player we might want to target & whether or not our 2 picks will genuinely get us into the top 10. So for the purpose of this I will prepare a phantom list and add in any possible AFL directed compensations, free agency, academy & F/S selections. So here we go;


Pre Draft Selection of Ryley Sanders to North as belated NGA pick

1. West Coast - Harley Reid
2. Gold Coast - Jed Walter (Academy)
3. North - Daniel Curtin
4. North - Nick Watson (Ben McKay compensation)
5. Hawthorn - Colby McKercher
6. Melbourne - Zane Duursma
7. Gold Coast - Ethan Read (Academy)
8. Essendon - Nate Caddy
9. Essendon - Darcy Wilson (Darcy Parish compensation)
10. Adelaide - Connor O'Sullivan
11. Gold Coast - Jake Rogers (academy)
12. GWS - Ollie Murphy
13. Sydney - Koltyn Tholstrup
14. Geelong - Mitch Edwards
15. Carlton - George Stevens
16. Hawthorn - Will McCabe (Father/Son)
17. GWS - Caleb Windsor
18. St Kilda - Cooper Simpson
19. Western Bulldogs?
20. Melbourne?
21. Western Bulldogs?

so allowing for all the draft tampering we end up with picks 19 & 21. And this does not include any possible Priority assistance awarded to either North or West Coast or both! Nor the possibility of St Kilda getting a 1st round compensation pick for Gresham.

I have purposely left out Croft for this exercise so as not to muddy the waters.

The highlighted players are those who are not tied to any club and are the live picks. Do our picks look attractive now to say Sydney or Geelong as I alluded to above? Is it still attractive to us given the best mids are easily gone. Darcy Wilson would seem a great fit but will he be in our reach capability? Is it worth us trading up for the possibility of getting Tholstrup at 13 or Carlton at 15 for Stevens or Simpson or Windsor in my draft scenario? It's so difficult given the compromised nature of this draft.

Of the players not listed the best pure mid is arguably Caiden Cleary who is tied to the Swans academy or perhaps Clay Hall from WA.

What better options are there for us if we are desperate for a mid (and what type of mid?)

Perhaps we trade out of the draft for established players or look to trade into 2024 where there is likely to be more mids available in the first round. We have been linked to Liam Henry from Freo. How do we pay for him as well as try and move up the draft?

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

Great post Doc.

Our maximum value in picks are for points when Walter gets read out. As they won?t be pushed out by the bids. So GCS to me would be the best match. If Richmond & GCS end up only a spot or two apart, then GWS would be very brave to hand over other their first for one or two pick upgrade. So if we are rooting, we want GCS to win enough and Richmond to not win again. If there?s no incentive for GWS to make such a minor move, hopefully that puts us in the box seat with GCS.

As I posted yesterday if they/GCS threw in late picks to us we could consider throwing in a F3 to sweeten the deal. Or I wonder if they have a really good player we wanted and we offered a higher future pick and rolled it all together.

Other than that it?s probably WCE.

Either Sydney?s pick for Barass. Or if WCE split 1 for Pick 4, 15 & 23, F1 - for - Pick 1 & F2 to Dees. Then look at splitting 4 for our picks. But after bids, they?re simply not that juicy.

I come back to our draft points before bids hold more value than the actual picks themselves I think. We simply need to get GCS to see us the natural trading partner for their pick. I think our picks are perfect for them. If they want to look at trading our a good kid for good future pick we should consider that too. If Richmond can just keep losing then hopefully GWS just take their picks in.


Edit: live ladders has Richmond 12th ,pick to GWS, and GCS 14th. But if Essendon sneak up it could be 13th and 14th and surely GWS don’t trade a first rounder for a one pick upgrade. Surely? Hopefully!!)

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

The other thing to note is this.

Say we get the GCS first and we draft a mid. Then use point to get Croft.

We have no real trade capital. Sweet & Buku are nothing trades. If we want a Liam Henry, Schultz, Lohmann etc -

- We are trading someone out for a pick to then use, or
- We are trading future picks

So if English, Naughton & Smith stay then there’s no top picks coming in. We still have an obscene amount of spare salary cap. If we want to bulk up our list, it may or may not indicate there’s a free agent in the mix. That might explain why talks with Williams are slow if that complicates losing compo, and thus keeping him.

One thing is for sure, we are going to be very busy.

[Bornadog]

Re: Rolling Draft Order 2023

In and under mid I gather , we have enough outside mids.

We don't have any outside mids