Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

[The Doctor]

With the draft just a few months away and this weird season kind of taking shape I thought we should have a look at the state of play regarding our picks, their points worth, and what manoeuvres we may consider to improve our position.

Our NGA prospect Jamarra Ugle-Hagen is a potential no.1 pick. It would seem a certainty he will go top 5 . I have my doubts he will go number 1. It's not because he isn't worthy of it, it's more that whoever has the number 1 pick will more likely chose someone else rather than bid on JUH so the player they do choose isn't considered as their 2nd pick in actual fact. There is the chance he could slip further down the order as Tom Greene did for GWS last year. But I don't think this will happen. So for the purpose of this exercise I am assuming JUH goes top 5. We are entitled to a 20% points discount.

The top 5 picks and their draft points & discounted points value are as follows;

1 — 3000 — 2400

2 — 2517 — 2014

3 — 2234 — 1787

4 — 2034 — 1627

5 — 1878 — 1503


So if Jamarra is bid on at pick 2 for example we will have to come up with 2014 points.

As at the completion of round 6 we sit in 12th position. Our picks currently would be

7 - 1644

37 - 483 (this pick is tied to Adelaide, currently 18th, in the Keath deal)

43 - 378

we currently have no 2nd or 4th round picks.

Our total points value is 2501. This would be enough to cover Jamarra even if he goes pick 1 (2400 points). But then it doesn't leave us with anything else.

We also have the possibility of drafting fellow NGA prospect Cody Raak (has been rated a top 30 prospect by some) & Father/Son prospect Ewan McPherson, son of Super Steve, who was Vic Metro capt in the 16's. So we will need to get some points for these guys or at least to get back into the draft. How do we do it?

Pick 7 would be a tasty pick for a club with a handful of juicy later picks to swap. Some clubs will be keen to get into the early draft action as it is likely to be a heavily compromised draft. Here are a few examples

* Gold Coast were given pick 11 as a compensation pick on traded to Geelong pushing picks after this back 1 place

* Brisbane has two late first round picks (currently 17 & 19) worth 1025 & 948 points respectively totalling 1973 points

* Adelaide has GWS 1st pick & their own 2nd round pick currently worth 1469 & 912 points totalling 2357 points.

* Geelong has 3 first round picks currently 8 (1551) 11 (1329) & 17 (1025) & 2nd rd pick 35 (522)


so if we were to swap pick 7 for Brisbanes two picks 17 & 19 we retain our 2 x 3rd picks even if slightly adjusted

Apologies if any of my calculations are out of whack (I'm no BT)

A bit of food for thought.

[Mofra]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

Godo discussion.

Also worth checking who has what kids tied to them with FS & NGA bids. There will be a host of clubs trying to maximise points to take their kids, with others looking to take advantage of that and trade up.

It's also worth noting if we are to use all three picks as points for JUH, we must have three spots free on our list. If we trade down to two later first rounders, we will need to either free up a list spot to use our last pick, or void it altogether.

[GVGjr]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

Thanks Doc, good thread starter

What I think we need to do is position ourselves for a number of 3rd round picks, perhaps trading the following years 2nd rounder for multiple 3rd round picks this year

[The Doctor]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

Godo discussion.

Also worth checking who has what kids tied to them with FS & NGA bids. There will be a host of clubs trying to maximise points to take their kids, with others looking to take advantage of that and trade up.

It's also worth noting if we are to use all three picks as points for JUH, we must have three spots free on our list. If we trade down to two later first rounders, we will need to either free up a list spot to use our last pick, or void it altogether.

Without running through all of them here are some of the more likely contenders

Alex Davies - Gold Coast is a possible top 10 pick

Reef McInness - Collingwood is a possible top 10 pick

Braeden Campbell - Swans is a possible top 10 pick

Errol Gulden - Swans is a possible 1st rounder

Taj Schofield - Port is a possible 1st/2nd round pick

Luke Edwards - Adelaide is a possible 1st/2nd round pick

Will Borlase - Adelaide is a possible 1st/2nd round pick

Joel Jeffrey - Gold Coast could go anywhere. I think inside top 30


These predictions may be way off the park as it is almost impossible to know what could happen with limited viewing of them this season. So it's quite speculative at this stage. That said we will be jockeying for position against some of these teams.

Swans should be happy. They'll likely get a high draft pick and use it before they have to match bids for Campbell & Gulden. They are well placed with later picks.

Port have 3 x 2nd round picks & 2 x 3rd round picks so they might be keen to move up the order ahead of a bid for Schofield

Adelaide have 2 x 1st round picks, 2 x 2nd round picks & 2 x 3rd round picks. I reckon they would love to get our pick 7 and sneak in before a bid on Borlase. That would give them potentially 3 x 1st rounders as well as Borlase. Thats a great platform to rebuild.

[The Doctor]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

What I think we need to do is position ourselves for a number of 3rd round picks, perhaps trading the following years 2nd rounder for multiple 3rd round picks this year

that's certainly an option although we might have to be careful trading out a 2021 2nd rounder. I say that because of the following potential opportunities that we might need it for

* Ben King comes OOC in 2021. Surely we will be in the mix for him.

* Father/son prospects; Sam Darcy. Kobi & Cooper West will be legible for the 2021 draft.

This will also be tricky with no form guide this year to help determine our strategy for next year.

[Mofra]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

Thanks Doc, good thread starter

What I think we need to do is position ourselves for a number of 3rd round picks, perhaps trading the following years 2nd rounder for multiple 3rd round picks this year

We can only use the same number of picks as we have list spots free, so that strategy depends on how hard we cut our list.

That loophole was closed years ago when GWS used a heap of late picks to snare a northern academy kid when they only had 1-2 list spots open.

[GVGjr]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

We can only use the same number of picks as we have list spots free, so that strategy depends on how hard we cut our list.

That loophole was closed years ago when GWS used a heap of late picks to snare a northern academy kid when they only had 1-2 list spots open.

Thanks, I forgot about that. Looks like we have a bit of work to do to cover the points required

[The Adelaide Connection]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

Without running through all of them here are some of the more likely contenders

Alex Davies - Gold Coast is a possible top 10 pick

Reef McInness - Collingwood is a possible top 10 pick

Braeden Campbell - Swans is a possible top 10 pick

Errol Gulden - Swans is a possible 1st rounder

Taj Schofield - Port is a possible 1st/2nd round pick

Luke Edwards - Adelaide is a possible 1st/2nd round pick

Will Borlase - Adelaide is a possible 1st/2nd round pick

Joel Jeffrey - Gold Coast could go anywhere. I think inside top 30


These predictions may be way off the park as it is almost impossible to know what could happen with limited viewing of them this season. So it's quite speculative at this stage. That said we will be jockeying for position against some of these teams.

Swans should be happy. They'll likely get a high draft pick and use it before they have to match bids for Campbell & Gulden. They are well placed with later picks.

Port have 3 x 2nd round picks & 2 x 3rd round picks so they might be keen to move up the order ahead of a bid for Schofield

Adelaide have 2 x 1st round picks, 2 x 2nd round picks & 2 x 3rd round picks. I reckon they would love to get our pick 7 and sneak in before a bid on Borlase. That would give them potentially 3 x 1st rounders as well as Borlase. Thats a great platform to rebuild.

In another looming kick to Adelaide’s guts, the mail is that Luke Edwards is not keen on the Crows. Things evidently went sour between the club and his old man and I don’t think that wound has healed, but his older brother also attended the infamous camp before being delisted:

“It is known the Edwards family was concerned with aspects of the post-2017 season Crows camp, which was attended by Luke's older brother Jackson and which was the cause of major fallout and a breakdown of trust between the playing group and club staff.“

https://www.afl.com.au/news/384583/fight-looms-for-draft-gun-son-of-crow-great-could-go-to-rival-club

[GVGjr]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

In another looming kick to Adelaide’s guts, the mail is that Luke Edwards is not keen on the Crows. Things evidently went sour between the club and his old man and I don’t think that wound has healed, but his older brother also attended the infamous camp before being delisted:

“It is known the Edwards family was concerned with aspects of the post-2017 season Crows camp, which was attended by Luke's older brother Jackson and which was the cause of major fallout and a breakdown of trust between the playing group and club staff.“

https://www.afl.com.au/news/384583/f...-to-rival-club

That would be a bit of a shame wouldn't it? Clubs make mistakes from time to time but I think most of them really appreciate the traditions behind father son selections

[The Adelaide Connection]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

That would be a bit of a shame wouldn't it? Clubs make mistakes from time to time but I think most of them really appreciate the traditions behind father son selections

It depends on how you view it I guess. Romantically, it’s great seeing the sons of former greats line up for their Dad’s team.

But I think this club are now reaping what they have sown. It has been a toxic corporation from well before the camp issue. There have been salary cap breaches, domestic violence cover-ups, a culture of dishonesty (see 2015 EF), and generally an arrogance and air of superiority not unlike the EFC.

I think karma is starting to rear it’s head. I don’t want it to be short-term, I want the club to properly address their culture and for the entire organisation and fans to learn some humility. Let them stay at rock bottom and have the dust kicked in their faces for a while (ala Carlton). There is still a level of denial and I think they need to learn the hard way.

It’s worth mentioning that I don’t hate Adelaide. In fact, I support them assuming they are playing anyone other than the dogs. Whilst I am a Passionate dogs member first and foremost, I have also held AFC membership on and off since I was a kid. Having attended hundreds of games and having a huge amount of friends and associates who are Crows fans, I can tell you that spending a bit of time in the cellar is exactly what this club needs.

[bulldogsthru&thru]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

It depends on how you view it I guess. Romantically, it’s great seeing the sons of former greats line up for their Dad’s team.

But I think this club are now reaping what they have sown. It has been a toxic corporation from well before the camp issue. There have been salary cap breaches, domestic violence cover-ups, a culture of dishonesty (see 2015 EF), and generally an arrogance and air of superiority not unlike the EFC.

I think karma is starting to rear it’s head and they are now reaping what they have sown. I don’t want it to be short-term, I want the club to properly address their culture and for the entire organisation and fans to learn some humility. Let them stay at rock bottom and have the dust kicked in their faces for a while (ala Carlton). There is still a level of denial and I think they need to learn the hard way.

It’s worth mentioning that I don’t hate Adelaide. In fact, I support them assuming they are playing anyone other than the dogs. Whilst I am a Passionate dogs member first and foremost, I have also held AFC membership on and off since I was a kid. Having attended hundreds of games and having a huge amount of friends and associates who are Crows fans, I can tell you that spending a bit of time in the cellar is exactly what this club needs.

I don't see how that's possible whilst Riciutto has any sort of involvement with the club.

While most of my time supporting the game has seen Carlton at the bottom, I imagine they have become a lot more grounded as I don't have an issue with them. But Essendon, despite not winning a final for all these years and blatantly cheating and being punished for it, I still see so much arrogance and entitlement with them. And I expect the same from Adelaide for some reason. But I certainly don't hate Adelaide as much as I do that scum from Windy Hill. There's a special place in hell for them.

[The Adelaide Connection]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

I don't see how that's possible whilst Riciutto has any sort of involvement with the club.

While most of my time supporting the game has seen Carlton at the bottom, I imagine they have become a lot more grounded as I don't have an issue with them. But Essendon, despite not winning a final for all these years and blatantly cheating and being punished for it, I still see so much arrogance and entitlement with them. And I expect the same from Adelaide for some reason. But I certainly don't hate Adelaide as much as I do that scum from Windy Hill. There's a special place in hell for them.

Riccuito certainly has to go. If anyone was unsure of that then the dealing with the McLeod’s grievances a few weeks ago should have clarified that.

I agree with likening Essendon to Adelaide. I am also worried that if their rebuild Is too quick they will pull through with their condescension for others still firmly in tact. Carlton have had theirs beaten out of them to a degree, a decade at the bottom will likely do that to you. That is why I am happy to see father-sons turn their back on them, I want to see young talent refuse to come and the gun kids they have walk (to Port would be even more damning).

Let them experience a period of sustained mediocrity. It’s the only way I think they will make more than some minor cosmetic changes.

Also, don’t start me on Essendon. It warms the cockles of my heart that my 6 year old daughter (who has only really started to sit down and watch games) has decided that they are the worst team (Note: After seeing the Giants rip our players shirts and be bullies she also doesn’t like them, second only to EFC ).

[Mofra]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

Also, don’t start me on Essendon. It warms the cockles of my heart that my 6 year old daughter (who has only really started to sit down and watch games) has decided that they are the worst team (Note: After seeing the Giants rip our players shirts and be bullies she also doesn’t like them, second only to EFC ).

#raisedcorrectly

[The Underdog]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

that's certainly an option although we might have to be careful trading out a 2021 2nd rounder. I say that because of the following potential opportunities that we might need it for

* Ben King comes OOC in 2021. Surely we will be in the mix for him.

* Father/son prospects; Sam Darcy. Kobi & Cooper West will be legible for the 2021 draft.

This will also be tricky with no form guide this year to help determine our strategy for next year.

Ben King re-signed until the end of 2022 at the end of last year. Not that contracts are what they were, but unlikely we’d be able to put in a competitive bid given our current obligations.

[Mofra]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

Having 3 players as FS/NGAs this year really puts us in a good position.

The lack of junior football means the draft will be more of a crap-shoot than in other years and we can largely focus on known quantities. The rookie draft will be where it gets interesting - if list sizes are cut there may be a fringe type we can pick up.

I'd look at Sam Skinner from Brisbane if he gets delisted. He's well behind the pecking order there and we did rate him highly in the past. Drafted as a defender but did pretty well in a pre-season game as a ruck/forward type so seems a genuine swingman.

There's always a quick x-factor indigenous forward or two tucked away in WA somewhere that recruiters have ignored, I'd love us to take a kid like that to pair with JUH and work with CCP (in our VFL team) as well as provide a genuine quick crumbing option to develop. Let's get mjp on the case!