Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

[Axe Man]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

From a HUN article discussing who the Cows should take at pick 1:

Rendell did not expect the Crows would bid for Western Bulldogs Next Generation Academy prospect Jamarra Ugle-Hagan, saying it did not make sense to ensure the $10,000 from draft sponsor NAB went to a player Adelaide would not get.

[comrade]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

From a HUN article discussing who the Cows should take at pick 1:

I believe the amount is now $20K. The optics of bidding on a player and not getting them at pick 1 isn't great.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

I believe the amount is now $20K. The optics of bidding on a player and not getting them at pick 1 isn't great.

I reckon Twomey is right. He could get to 4, which would be hilariously great for us.

[jazzadogs]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

Good news for us with the AFL making rules on the run again, and saying that you can use draft picks even without a list spot open, for this year only! Explains how Cav and co have survived.

"Under normal AFL rules, clubs who are matching bids for northern Academy, Next Generation Academy and father-son players are only allowed to use draft points from the amount of picks that is equal to the number of their available list spots.


This has been to stop clubs from stockpiling late draft picks with the intention of only using them to pay for highly rated draftees, even if they had more picks at the draft than they had list spots available, which was an early loophole of the live bidding system.

But clubs will not be bound by that rule at next month's national draft after the League gave clearance for clubs to use points from draft picks even if they are not going to use the selections to draft players"

https://www.afl.com.au/news/524802

[soupman]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

Big result.

[comrade]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

Can they bring back 3rd man up for next year only while they're at it?

[Twodogs]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

My brain was starting to hurt working out/keeping up with the intricacies of the points system and how it applies to the F/S and Academy picks but now I've given up it feels a lot better.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

So mapping this out:

Out (7): Suckling, Greene, Lynch, Dickson, Gowers, JT, Porter
In (3): Treloar, Martin, Hannan

Four vacancies. The AFEL is expected to reduce list sizes by 2.

Two vacancies. Assuming Hayes, Cavarra & Duryea are kept. (I'd like a third pick. I'd moe Hayes with a commitment to bring him back under certain circumstances. But I don't think it's happening).

AFEL have changes the draft rules as per this and other threads.

We have 2,319 Current Draft Points

Adelaide confirm they're not bidding on JUH. Say he's goes between Pick 2 & Twomey's prediction of Pick 4:

Matched Pick 2. 2,517 draft points before discount - 2,013 draft points after discount (308 Point Surplus)
Matched Pick 3. 2,234 draft points before discount - 1,787 draft points after discount (544 Point Surplus)
Matched Pick 4. 2,034 draft points before discount - 1,627 draft points after discount (694 Point Surplus)

So the worst case is 308 points left over. MacPherson won't go first round, so wherever he goes we get a 197 point discount. So add 308 & 197 = 505 Draft Points. That's matching a bid at Pick 36 in the worst case scenario. So we've got JUH & MacPherson locked away as our current two live picks.

Where does the club see Raak? Worth a shot or a rookie candidate?

The rule change picks-to-spots opens up an opportunity for a smart guy like Sam Power to exploit. Something like:

Pick 2 or 3 Matched Bid: Live trading Pick 26 to a club that really wants it. For two picks that at a minimum cover our points and a future 3rd Round

Pick 4: With a 694 point surplus, we can trade Pick 26 (729 Pints) before matching the bid. To a club that really wants a player expected at that mark. Traded for a pick in the late 40's to early 50's and a future second rounder.

2021 Second Round Picks: Adelaide, Collingwood, Melbourne, Richmond & WCE have 2, Geelong have 3 X Second Rounders

I.e. JUH is bid at Pick 4. Geelong trade Pick 51 and a Future Second (Tied to Essendon) & 26. Geelong's first pick is 51, now it's 26, that's a win for them (they still have two 2nd in 2021). JUH is still covered and then we get the 251 Draft Points from Geelong's Pick 51. We can then go as high as Pick 39 for MacPherson.

If that's permitted by the AFEL then, the full exploitation of the opportunity means the rule change has not only kept Hayes, Cavarra & Duryea employed but if we can bring in futures because of the rule - the rule change if we get a Future 3rd Rounder means we got Hannan essentially for free, or, if we get a Future 2nd means we then get Treloar essentially for free (while not having to cut another three players).

We couldn't split Pick 26 in the analysis yesterday because then we would've needed 6 spots opened up. Boy o boy wowee, if the rules allow Power to play trade around with future picks (there's nothing I've read to say he can't), then if things play out and someone desperately wants Pick 26 and we don't want it/need it, and could get a future 2nd. Then the AFEL delivers us Treloar for free (or better yet, if the Pick was below our natural 2nd, we are given a 2nd round upgrade to take Treloar on, plus 500 draft points this year and $1.5M from Collingwood into Treloar's pocket.

Interesting times ahead.

[Axe Man]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

My brain was starting to hurt working out/keeping up with the intricacies of the points system and how it applies to the F/S and Academy picks but now I've given up it feels a lot better.

729 Pints

I'm going to follow BTs suggestion and get on the beers, it should all become much clearer.

[Scraggers]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

So mapping this out:

Out (7): Suckling, Greene, Lynch, Dickson, Gowers, JT, Porter
In (3): Treloar, Martin, Hannan

Four vacancies. The AFEL is expected to reduce list sizes by 2.

Two vacancies. Assuming Hayes, Cavarra & Duryea are kept. (I'd like a third pick. I'd moe Hayes with a commitment to bring him back under certain circumstances. But I don't think it's happening).

AFEL have changes the draft rules as per this and other threads.

We have 2,319 Current Draft Points

Adelaide confirm they're not bidding on JUH. Say he's goes between Pick 2 & Twomey's prediction of Pick 4:

Matched Pick 2. 2,517 draft points before discount - 2,013 draft points after discount (308 Point Surplus)
Matched Pick 3. 2,234 draft points before discount - 1,787 draft points after discount (544 Point Surplus)
Matched Pick 4. 2,034 draft points before discount - 1,627 draft points after discount (694 Point Surplus)

So the worst case is 308 points left over. MacPherson won't go first round, so wherever he goes we get a 197 point discount. So add 308 & 197 = 505 Draft Points. That's matching a bid at Pick 36 in the worst case scenario. So we've got JUH & MacPherson locked away as our current two live picks.

Where does the club see Raak? Worth a shot or a rookie candidate?

The rule change picks-to-spots opens up an opportunity for a smart guy like Sam Power to exploit. Something like:

Pick 2 or 3 Matched Bid: Live trading Pick 26 to a club that really wants it. For two picks that at a minimum cover our points and a future 3rd Round

Pick 4: With a 694 point surplus, we can trade Pick 26 (729 Pints) before matching the bid. To a club that really wants a player expected at that mark. Traded for a pick in the late 40's to early 50's and a future second rounder.

2021 Second Round Picks: Adelaide, Collingwood, Melbourne, Richmond & WCE have 2, Geelong have 3 X Second Rounders

I.e. JUH is bid at Pick 4. Geelong trade Pick 51 and a Future Second (Tied to Essendon) & 26. Geelong's first pick is 51, now it's 26, that's a win for them (they still have two 2nd in 2021). JUH is still covered and then we get the 251 Draft Points from Geelong's Pick 51. We can then go as high as Pick 39 for MacPherson.

If that's permitted by the AFEL then, the full exploitation of the opportunity means the rule change has not only kept Hayes, Cavarra & Duryea employed but if we can bring in futures because of the rule - the rule change if we get a Future 3rd Rounder means we got Hannan essentially for free, or, if we get a Future 2nd means we then get Treloar essentially for free (while not having to cut another three players).

We couldn't split Pick 26 in the analysis yesterday because then we would've needed 6 spots opened up. Boy o boy wowee, if the rules allow Power to play trade around with future picks (there's nothing I've read to say he can't), then if things play out and someone desperately wants Pick 26 and we don't want it/need it, and could get a future 2nd. Then the AFEL delivers us Treloar for free (or better yet, if the Pick was below our natural 2nd, we are given a 2nd round upgrade to take Treloar on, plus 500 draft points this year and $1.5M from Collingwood into Treloar's pocket.

Interesting times ahead.

Thank you BT ... god I love you around this time of the year.

Let's say JUH is bid on for pick three, leaving us 544 points surplus. When would our next pick be? Do we just slot in at the 544 point mark?

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

Thank you BT ... god I love you around this time of the year.

Let's say JUH is bid on for pick three, leaving us 544 points surplus. When would our next pick be? Do we just slot in at the 544 point mark?

That was on the basis of keeping/using Pick 26. In that scenario is nearly identical to the first three picks. So pick 42 & 50 are left over. A different hypothetical here, MacPherson isn't bid on by Pick 42. Say another team wants it. We trade it for a future third and then use Pick 50 on MacPherson or match a bid.

We get both priority access players and a future third.

Draft night... Let's hope JUH slips down the order for as long as possible. We could figuritvly murder this trade and draft period.

[Bornadog]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

That was on the basis of keeping/using Pick 26. In that scenario is nearly identical to the first three picks. So pick 42 & 50 are left over. A different hypothetical here, MacPherson isn't bid on by Pick 42. Say another team wants it. We trade it for a future third and then use Pick 50 on MacPherson or match a bid.

We get both priority access players and a future third.

Draft night... Let's hope JUH slips down the order for as long as possible. We could figuritvly murder this trade and draft period.

I wonder if GC has their eye on MacPherson.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

I wonder if GC has their eye on MacPherson.

Say they do, and it's Pick 27 they're looking at using. I reckon after matched bids it could slide a little say pick 30. But let's say they keep Pick 27.

MacPherson is then 703 points, less the 197 points discount. So 506 points is needed for us to get him.

If JUH goes at Pick 3, in round terms we still have Picks 42 & 54 - 395 & 220 = 615 points.

JUH (at 3), MacPherson (at 27) and 100 points to spare.

[Mofra]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

This update to the list spots rule will help us no end. A bit late in the piece by the AFL to change it but we have to exploit it to its full extent.

[Scraggers]

Re: Jamarra and the Points System Strategy

Say they do, and it's Pick 27 they're looking at using. I reckon after matched bids it could slide a little say pick 30. But let's say they keep Pick 27.

MacPherson is then 703 points, less the 197 points discount. So 506 points is needed for us to get him.

If JUH goes at Pick 3, in round terms we still have Picks 42 & 54 - 395 & 220 = 615 points.

JUH (at 3), MacPherson (at 27) and 100 points to spare.

So if we need 4 players, how does our 100 points get utilized?