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Last year I gave the very, very, very early list management thread a go. This year I'm going around again, but in more detail and across 2019 & 2020. I can't predict someone walking out or demanding a trade, so there's an element that can't be covered.
First I'll give my overview, then the discussion:
OVERVIEW
2019:
Must Sign: Dunkley, Williams, Daniel, Greene, Liberatore, Bailey Dale, Lewis Young
Movement Out: Main List
1. Morris (ret.)
2. Dickson (ret.)
3. Picken (ret.)
4. Suckling (ret. > NFL)
5. Webb (delist > Rookie List)
Movement Out: Rookie List
1. Roarke Smith (Effectively replaced by Webb)
Question marked currently: Roberts, Porter (2)
Potential Movement In:
Direct Access: Father/Son Options: Kellett, Liberatore, Kolynuik, Romero (4 potential recruits)
Current Draft Picks (Indicative range): Picks 12, 30, 46, 48, 51, 84 (& Duryea for pick 66)
2020:
Must Sign: Naughton, English, Schache, Wood, Gowers, Smith, West, Trengove
Potential Move Out - But Too Early (Main List): Jong, Lynch, Vandermeer, Cavarra, Hayes (5)
Potential Move Out - But Too Early (Rookie List): Young, Sweet, Khamis (all three assessed after 2 seasons) (3)
Potential Movement In:
Direct Access: Father/Son Options: MacPherson / NGA: Stevens, McDonald, Ugle-Hagan (4 potential recruits)
Current Draft Picks: Rounds 1-6
DISCUSSION:
2019
Salary Cap:
Once upon a time it was called the 'Hurley Money', but now it's the 'Wingard Money'. Approximately $900,000 over 5 years, currently in the bank. If the potential retirees are retired, my wild guess is that they'd be on around $300,000 to $350,000 at most. If I take the lesser figure there's $1.2M extra in the cap, plus cap rise. This figure should allow us to re-sign our musts in 2019 and strongly contribute towards signing our musts in 2020.
Father/Sons: With our war chest of mid range picks, we've got whomever we want covered I'd suggest.
Possible Targets:
Scenario 1:
Package 1st Rounders 2019 & 2020 for someone like Josh Kelly. The picks are there, the salary cap is about there. It's a bit of an 'all in' strategy though. If we feel we need another A Grader, this might be a live option. If we feel we need to hit the first round of the draft again, then scenario 2 might appeal.
Scenario 2:
Keep our first rounders. Then look to the free agency pool. Use a good chunk of the 'Wingard Money' here, and move the balance to re-signing other players in 2020.
Adam Tomlinson - Free Agent
With the movement out of Morris, Collins, Adams, maybe Fletch, Hamling and if Naughton stays forward. We have a huge need for an experienced tall. Tomlinson seems like a Bevo type, not a hulking defender, but at 194cm and 96kg, he moves well, prefers to kick and goes at about 76% efficiency. Paired with Cordy, Wood &/or Young.
Alex Sexton - Free Agent
An attempt to try to cover the loses of Picko & Dicko. A mature player, averaging about a goal a game over his 98 games to date. Like Lloyd, can take a run further up the ground too. Seems like a fit to another need.
Under scenario 2, we attend to our needs with a tall Bevo type defender and mature mid sized goal kicking mid sized player. We've kept our first rounder, secured our desired Father/Sons and taken some more young talent.
2020:
Salary Cap:
Under either scenario I don't see a lot of issues for Power. I think his acumen was on display at the draft and understand small details and exploiting systems to sign all we need to sign by 2020.
Scenario 1:
If it was like a Shiel type trade for an A Grade Mid, we'd be seeking a second rounder back. This might make life difficult in securing MacPherson and Ugle-Hagan, plus Stevens or McDonald with just a couple of second round picks and a third if they excel next year. We'd have to get creative to amass more points.
Scenario 2:
So looking at the Tomlinson/Sexton type mature depth to the list, we are still holding on to our first rounder in 2020. This should give us the draft points necessary in 2020 without doing too much. We secure MacPherson and Ugle-Hagan, plus Stevens or McDonald.
I guess fleshing out the matters for consideration, we are looking very good from the salary cap perspective, and with 8 Father/Sons or NGA players, we have a line on a good numbers of kids. Our kids are good, we've got a few mature role players lately too (Trengove, Lloyd, Duryea, Crozier etc). But the list is off balance even more so if Naughton stays forward, and likely retirements open up more needs like tall defenders (which Bevo will play) and a mid sized goal a game forward who can take a run up further. The question seems to be whether the preference is to head hunt another A Grader with the picks/cap we have, or address a couple of needs and use the balance of cap on retaining kids and keep hitting the first round of the draft for another 2 years. I suspect the answer lies in whether you think we are a threat next year, or if we are another 2-3 years off seriously challenging for top 4.
At this stage, I see more value in addressing key needs, holding back a few more dollars for others, holding top range picks, taking the Father/Sons & NGAs we want for two years and developing the talent on the list. Then see what, if anything we have in the cap from 2021 hopefully topping up for a sustained assault for many seasons for another flag.
First I'll give my overview, then the discussion:
OVERVIEW
2019:
Must Sign: Dunkley, Williams, Daniel, Greene, Liberatore, Bailey Dale, Lewis Young
Movement Out: Main List
1. Morris (ret.)
2. Dickson (ret.)
3. Picken (ret.)
4. Suckling (ret. > NFL)
5. Webb (delist > Rookie List)
Movement Out: Rookie List
1. Roarke Smith (Effectively replaced by Webb)
Question marked currently: Roberts, Porter (2)
Potential Movement In:
Direct Access: Father/Son Options: Kellett, Liberatore, Kolynuik, Romero (4 potential recruits)
Current Draft Picks (Indicative range): Picks 12, 30, 46, 48, 51, 84 (& Duryea for pick 66)
2020:
Must Sign: Naughton, English, Schache, Wood, Gowers, Smith, West, Trengove
Potential Move Out - But Too Early (Main List): Jong, Lynch, Vandermeer, Cavarra, Hayes (5)
Potential Move Out - But Too Early (Rookie List): Young, Sweet, Khamis (all three assessed after 2 seasons) (3)
Potential Movement In:
Direct Access: Father/Son Options: MacPherson / NGA: Stevens, McDonald, Ugle-Hagan (4 potential recruits)
Current Draft Picks: Rounds 1-6
DISCUSSION:
2019
Salary Cap:
Once upon a time it was called the 'Hurley Money', but now it's the 'Wingard Money'. Approximately $900,000 over 5 years, currently in the bank. If the potential retirees are retired, my wild guess is that they'd be on around $300,000 to $350,000 at most. If I take the lesser figure there's $1.2M extra in the cap, plus cap rise. This figure should allow us to re-sign our musts in 2019 and strongly contribute towards signing our musts in 2020.
Father/Sons: With our war chest of mid range picks, we've got whomever we want covered I'd suggest.
Possible Targets:
Scenario 1:
Package 1st Rounders 2019 & 2020 for someone like Josh Kelly. The picks are there, the salary cap is about there. It's a bit of an 'all in' strategy though. If we feel we need another A Grader, this might be a live option. If we feel we need to hit the first round of the draft again, then scenario 2 might appeal.
Scenario 2:
Keep our first rounders. Then look to the free agency pool. Use a good chunk of the 'Wingard Money' here, and move the balance to re-signing other players in 2020.
Adam Tomlinson - Free Agent
With the movement out of Morris, Collins, Adams, maybe Fletch, Hamling and if Naughton stays forward. We have a huge need for an experienced tall. Tomlinson seems like a Bevo type, not a hulking defender, but at 194cm and 96kg, he moves well, prefers to kick and goes at about 76% efficiency. Paired with Cordy, Wood &/or Young.
Alex Sexton - Free Agent
An attempt to try to cover the loses of Picko & Dicko. A mature player, averaging about a goal a game over his 98 games to date. Like Lloyd, can take a run further up the ground too. Seems like a fit to another need.
Under scenario 2, we attend to our needs with a tall Bevo type defender and mature mid sized goal kicking mid sized player. We've kept our first rounder, secured our desired Father/Sons and taken some more young talent.
2020:
Salary Cap:
Under either scenario I don't see a lot of issues for Power. I think his acumen was on display at the draft and understand small details and exploiting systems to sign all we need to sign by 2020.
Scenario 1:
If it was like a Shiel type trade for an A Grade Mid, we'd be seeking a second rounder back. This might make life difficult in securing MacPherson and Ugle-Hagan, plus Stevens or McDonald with just a couple of second round picks and a third if they excel next year. We'd have to get creative to amass more points.
Scenario 2:
So looking at the Tomlinson/Sexton type mature depth to the list, we are still holding on to our first rounder in 2020. This should give us the draft points necessary in 2020 without doing too much. We secure MacPherson and Ugle-Hagan, plus Stevens or McDonald.
I guess fleshing out the matters for consideration, we are looking very good from the salary cap perspective, and with 8 Father/Sons or NGA players, we have a line on a good numbers of kids. Our kids are good, we've got a few mature role players lately too (Trengove, Lloyd, Duryea, Crozier etc). But the list is off balance even more so if Naughton stays forward, and likely retirements open up more needs like tall defenders (which Bevo will play) and a mid sized goal a game forward who can take a run up further. The question seems to be whether the preference is to head hunt another A Grader with the picks/cap we have, or address a couple of needs and use the balance of cap on retaining kids and keep hitting the first round of the draft for another 2 years. I suspect the answer lies in whether you think we are a threat next year, or if we are another 2-3 years off seriously challenging for top 4.
At this stage, I see more value in addressing key needs, holding back a few more dollars for others, holding top range picks, taking the Father/Sons & NGAs we want for two years and developing the talent on the list. Then see what, if anything we have in the cap from 2021 hopefully topping up for a sustained assault for many seasons for another flag.
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