BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

[Mofra]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Saw him a couple of times on the tv and gee he looked slow. Not sure if he was carrying an injury.

Yep, back injury. Was not expected to play at all this year. We'd want a really really thorough medical beforehand.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

I though I'd do a bot of a 'book report' of the rumours to date, and how they could work in the simplest form. The rumours are contradictory being this far out, like broken jigsaw pieces, but I've tried to put them together to see it works as a collective of rumours together. So...

2019 Picks circa 12, 30, 41, 46, 48, 84
2020 - 3,100 my draft points target (JUH 1,600 points, other 3 Priority Access kids drafted at say 25, 30 & 35 for 1,500 points)

1. Step one. Trade all three third rounders to Port for pick 27, and exchange our 2020 4th for their 3rd. They win about 100 points. Seems plausible.

2019 Picks circa 12, 27, 30 & 84
2020 - 3,100 - Say we finish 15th - 1st = 1,112 - 2nd = 563 - 3rd = 259 - Port circa Pick 47 - 316 = 2,250 draft points

2. Martin say $600,000 4 years (or alternate quality player) for Pick 12 and 2020 3rd rounder - seems plausible

2019 Picks circa 27, 30 & 84
2020 Pick 37 GCS of 483 points added to 2,250 draft points = 2,733 draft points

3. Keath say $500,000 4 years for pick 30 - seems plausible

4. Bruce say $600,000 4 years for pick 27 - seems plausible

5. Zak Smith as little coin as possible, 2 years pick 84 or DFA (He's already behind 3-4 others and they're after Goldstein)


2019: Draft picks: Near end of draft selections. Target a delisted player hoping he gets through to the near end (Kerr?) and upgrade La Young & Buku (3 minimum met)
2020: We are within 300-400 points if all our guys seriously drain draft points. We have the option to offer draft points trades next year on 1st & 2nd rounders (happy to work with GCS next year if that helps thing along on Martin and the points benefit is right). That should get us to within 100-200 of the 3,100 draft points needed. If we trade out a fringe player for a fourth rounder or trade for 2021 selections we can make up those points. No need to go into deficit with three third rounders next year, which is nice to have them all guaranteed and paid up front for.

Four players this year would require two of Dickson (uncontracted), Gowers, Lynch or Jong (all three contracted) to go.

Salary cap. We would need to find about $2M to cover these four. Estimates had us at $1.7M in cap space not too long ago. Since then Morris has retired and if Dickson retires or plays elsewhere next year (owing to Martin & Bruce coming in), those two salaries will bump our spend to $2M with some cash left over for re-signing efforts.

Team balance. Martin & Keath are self explanatory. Bruce brings an interesting dynamic as a KPD, turned 50 goal a year forward, turned forward/second ruck of 30+ goals a year. He, Schache & Naughton are different players and the flexibility of them all to do something different is a good concept (including pinch hitting in defence). Zak Smith, as the rumours have us interested in, is a quality back up ruck. Sweet by reports on here seems to be a longer term bet. By having an experienced back up, we can settle JT down as a full back. He's a great team man playing wherever he needs to as and when the coach says. But I'd like to have JT as the third string down in the ruck and not deal with it unless our injuries go three rungs down. Smith is no world beater, but I think he's the perfect kind of mature, experienced ruck depth that not much money can buy.

Our rucks: English, Smith, (JT), Sweet and 2nd ruck option of Bruce
Our KPF: Naughton, Schache, Bruce (JUH next year)
Our KPD: JT, Young, Keath, Cordy (with Wood & Crozier able to play taller)

To me all those lines above look much better balanced for the names being rumoured. The luxury of throwing Naughton into defence if needed during a game is a wonderful option just to have.

Rookie list. With La Young & Khamis upgraded, Sweet extended there's two names to extend or cut. Roarke Smith and Ryan Gardner. I'd cut both, but Bevo wants the group held together as best as possible, so maybe they both stay for depth. That gives us the one rookie draft selection or SSP option. The club fully checked out and ticked the boxes on Harley Bennell, and he was still in play, I'd look at that SSP rookie spot. Or take a hit on the next rookie gun forward pocket.

With next year all about the priority access kids, we simply won't have the picks to trade for talent need year. So this year could be similar to Hawthorn's a few years ago when their first pick wasn't until near the end, and they still picked up Mitchell Lewis there. Trade for mature players now, or likely wait until 2021. I guess that's why we seem to be very intelligently aggressive in looking for players this year.

To me, if the rumoured players are truely being sought, I think as individual trades they look good. Collectively if they could all or mostly be pulled off, it looks good for the balance, structure and best 22 also. We could find the picks necessary. Still have some cap left over. And move points into 2020 to secure our kids. So if it's true, it looks like a well thought out aggressive plan by Sam Power and the club that has the potential to make us a very, very serious player next year.

So that's my book report on 'Western Bulldogs Trade Rumour 1st Week of September in the Media'

[FrediKanoute]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Great analysis BT. CAn you summarise into what we end up with this year and what we end up with next year ?

[Bulldog Joe]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Why would we upgrade Khamis.

i understand La Young as he has played a few games, but Buku has been nowhere near it as yet, although he is showing some promise.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

On the above:

2019: Martin, Bruce, Keath, Z. Smith (La Young, Khamis) - with - 1 X draftee & 1 X SSP/rookie
2020: Ugle-Hagan, MacPherson, Stevens, Raak - likely no other draftees & maybe one SSP/rookie

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Why would we upgrade Khamis.

i understand La Young as he has played a few games, but Buku has been nowhere near it as yet, although he is showing some promise.

It might be a safer bet to upgrade Khamis than to bet on who knows what at pick 90. I think we'd find that Khamis already has a contract for next year, so being on the main list for it is a safe bet, ticks off the minimum three selection rule and invests some confidence in him. The domino effect of upgrading two of them (it could be Roarke, I'd hope not) is that two spots open up, so if we want to keep Gardner for any reason, we still have one rookie draft pick or SSP option. The second upgrade wouldn't be necessarily on output alone, although it may be. But a decision that takes in several factors.

[Bulldog Joe]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

It might be a safer bet to upgrade Khamis than to bet on who knows what at pick 90. I think we'd find that Khamis already has a contract for next year, so being on the main list for it is a safe bet, ticks off the minimum three selection rule and invests some confidence in him. The domino effect of upgrading two of them (it could be Roarke, I'd hope not) is that two spots open up, so if we want to keep Gardner for any reason, we still have one rookie draft pick or SSP option. The second upgrade wouldn't be necessarily on output alone, although it may be. But a decision that takes in several factors.

Wouldn't we leave Khamis on the rookie list to keep a spot open. He can still play if he warrants a spot in the 22.
We can even leave La Young as a rookie, just in case there is a mature ager available at our later picks.

My view is let them earn the spot.

[Mofra]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Wouldn't we leave Khamis on the rookie list to keep a spot open. He can still play if he warrants a spot in the 22.
We can even leave La Young as a rookie, just in case there is a mature ager available at our later picks.

My view is let them earn the spot.

Yep - as I understand it you an take a mature player in the draft on a 1 year deal (kids get 2 years).
If we are serious about a 1 year deal for Zac Smith as back up and we don;t rate anyone else enough to be put on the main list, he can spend his year there.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Wouldn't we leave Khamis on the rookie list to keep a spot open. He can still play if he warrants a spot in the 22.
We can even leave La Young as a rookie, just in case there is a mature ager available at our later picks.

My view is let them earn the spot.

I'm looking at the question differently, but you do have a point in isolation. But do we want three picks at the very end if the draft, or rather elevate two rookies and take one pick at the end of the draft. Khamis would've been bid on passed about pick 40. We give recruits three years at a minimum usually. If Khamis spent a year or two on the main list it would be like we matched a bid last year. La Young was given an extension almost immediately. So we obviously rate these two kids enough, so that leaves us with one pick in the 80's onwards. It also allows us the flexibility to keep Roarke or Gardner if desired, and open up a rookie draft spots or SSP spot. I think both have the talent to be upgraded and it reduces the risk of trying up main list spots for 2-3 years on speculative picks. I'm looking at everything beyond earning the spot if the rumours panned out as above about what we would do in a situation with no picks inside the first 5 rounds.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Yep - as I understand it you an take a mature player in the draft on a 1 year deal (kids get 2 years).
If we are serious about a 1 year deal for Zac Smith as back up and we don;t rate anyone else enough to be put on the main list, he can spend his year there.

St Kilda are interested in him so the reporting says, as a DFA he probably gets a new home for free before the draft. There was chatter of other delisted players we may have interest in. That could well be in play with a late pick too.

[Mofra]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

St Kilda are interested in him so the reporting says, as a DFA he probably gets a new home for free before the draft. There was chatter of other delisted players we may have interest in. That could well be in play with a late pick too.

Yeah, there were rumours we were interested in Patrick Kerr who is now delisted from Carlton.
Not sure if we keep the same interest if we do manage to snare Josh Bruce.

[comrade]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

BT, is there any reason we shouldn’t or can’t trade next year’s first?

Assuming the NGA doesn’t change until the 2021 period, we’re locked into a top 10 talent. If our 2020 first pick allows us to package up deals to get Bruce/Martin/Keath during this year’s trade period AND we can still take JUH next year, are there many negative ramifications to using later picks/and or going into deficit for NGA use?

Just feels like we’ve got a massive free hit next year, why not use it to our advantage this year to secure mature talent.

[Mofra]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

BT, is there any reason we shouldn’t or can’t trade next year’s first?

Assuming the NGA doesn’t change until the 2021 period, we’re locked into a top 10 talent. If our 2020 first pick allows us to package up deals to get Bruce/Martin/Keath during this year’s trade period AND we can still take JUH next year, are there many negative ramifications to using later picks/and or going into deficit for NGA use?

Just feels like we’ve got a massive free hit next year, why not use it to our advantage this year to secure mature talent.

If we get a number of picks that add up to a higher points value we'd probably take that, although there is a rule that you can only use the same number of picks that you have list spots free for.

We also have Ewan MacPherson and Nick Stevens to consider who both project as late first round pick talents next year too.

[comrade]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

If we get a number of picks that add up to a higher points value we'd probably take that, although there is a rule that you can only use the same number of picks that you have list spots free for.

We also have Ewan MacPherson and Nick Stevens to consider who both project as late first round pick talents next year too.

Can’t we still get MacPherson and Stevens by going in to deficit?

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

BT, is there any reason we shouldn’t or can’t trade next year’s first?

Assuming the NGA doesn’t change until the 2021 period, we’re locked into a top 10 talent. If our 2020 first pick allows us to package up deals to get Bruce/Martin/Keath during this year’s trade period AND we can still take JUH next year, are there many negative ramifications to using later picks/and or going into deficit for NGA use?

Just feels like we’ve got a massive free hit next year, why not use it to our advantage this year to secure mature talent.

We can, but not comfortably. If we do match bids on JUH, Macca, Stevens & Raak we will need a ton of points, possibly over 3,000 points. The best I think we can do (avoid deficit) is offer a minor trade down the order with our first rounder. Say offering our first rounder in a swap for a first rounder of a club arrogant enough to think they’ll finish above us, or a club that we are confident will finish last (Second rounder Pick 19).

GCS I think will have pick 19 next year so we could dangle that in front of them for Martin and their 2020 2nd (19), 3rd (37) & 4th (55) rounders for our first this year & next. They did a similar trade with Brisbane last year with similar picks from both clubs. On the Martin side I’d like something extra this year (upgrade somewhere, third rounder etc) unless our first pick is very late first round. That extra then can be used on other players if necessary. We’d be ahead on points most likely so I’d take that, GCS should too. Then do a points trade with 19 next year to get some more points.

I’ve been advocating all year about trading down, but looking ahead it’s a smaller window to do it so I think it’s an opportunity, but not as big now. If a trade down with GCS got us Martin and heaps more points overall that’s be fine. But being 1,000 points short next year isn’t to me worth it. But I’d let it be known it’s on the table for the right offer with a high pick coming back.