BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

[Bornadog]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Interesting. What are you asking in return for him?

Wouldn't have a clue, but if it opens spots and lands us a player we want?

[GVGjr]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

A couple of scenario's for consideration

I suspect West Coast are going to need another first round pick to complete the Tim Kelly trade and I wonder if that opens up an opportunity for us to get involved?

We have pick #12 which is worth 1268 points
They have picks #22 and #32 worth which is 1429 points
A swap of late picks balances that but knowing that there is a potential that these WC picks sliding down the order further

Picks #12 and #14 will satisfy Geelong

That would give us 3 x second round picks (22, 30 and 32) to complete some trades.

Perhaps pick #22 could go to the Saints for Bruce and a 2020 3rd round coming back to us. The Saints should be desperate to get back into the draft after they cough up pick 4 for Hill and the additional 3rd round will be handy for us in 2020

Pick #30 goes to Adelaide for Keath although I suspect they will want more

Pick #32 could still attract a good player from another club


If there is a Joe Daniher deal to be done then we might also play a part in that if the Swans need two early picks to get the deal done. Could we use pick 12 to pry Oliver Florent from them? He was pick #11 in 2016 and and has played more than 50 senior games. He's still young (21) but has a bit of experience behind him

Plenty of scenarios we might be able to get involved with

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

A couple of scenario's for consideration

I suspect West Coast are going to need another first round pick to complete the Tim Kelly trade and I wonder if that opens up an opportunity for us to get involved?

We have pick #12 which is worth 1268 points
They have picks #22 and #32 worth which is 1429 points
A swap of late picks balances that but knowing that there is a potential that these WC picks sliding down the order further

Picks #12 and #14 will satisfy Geelong

That would give us 3 x second round picks (22, 30 and 32) to complete some trades.

Perhaps pick #22 could go to the Saints for Bruce and a 2020 3rd round coming back to us. The Saints should be desperate to get back into the draft after they cough up pick 4 for Hill and the additional 3rd round will be handy for us in 2020

Pick #30 goes to Adelaide for Keath although I suspect they will want more

Pick #32 could still attract a good player from another club


If there is a Joe Daniher deal to be done then we might also play a part in that if the Swans need two early picks to get the deal done. Could we use pick 12 to pry Oliver Florent from them? He was pick #11 in 2016 and and has played more than 50 senior games. He's still young (21) but has a bit of experience behind him

Plenty of scenarios we might be able to get involved with

I'm not a fan of that WCE trade hypothetical. If they had a good midfielder or small forward worth a pick 12 trade I'd be happy (like Florent in the Sydney one). Kelly will shuffle the order down of mids, so maybe a good kid is open to leaving.

The Sydney trade of Florent isn't a bad idea if he and Sydney are open to it. If Papley ends up staying, this could be an outlet for Sydney.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

I'm trying to look at how we acquire the players we are looking at if we don't win out in Port's expected draft points trade for their pick 27. So:

Adelaide: Pick 12, 30 & 46 -- Dogs Picks 21, 26, Keath & Murphy (Adelaide get a boost to their rebuild, we get mature players)
St Kilda: Pick 26, 41 & 48 -- Dogs Bruce & 2020 2nd rounder (we help St Kilda equip themselves with picks to trade this year, while helping ourselves to their juicy 2nd rounder next year)
GCS: Draft Points Trade: 2020 1st Rounder, 4th rounder -- Dogs get Pick 54, GCS 2020 2nd, 3rd, 4th rounder

Trade pick 21 included: Florent, Howard, Isaac Smith (with pick 28 coming back)

So over 2019 & 2020:

3 selections on 2019 draft night: (1) 54 (2) 84 & (3) Lachie Young upgraded
Players in: Keath, Bruce, Murphy, the pick 21 trade
2020: 2nd GCS, 2nd StK, 2nd Dogs, 3rd GCS, 3rd Dogs, 4th GCS (circa 3,300 draft points which is enough draft points to secure all of JUH, MacPherson, Stevens & Raak should we want to at high prices).

2019: Bruce, Keath, Murphy, pick 21 trade player, pick 54, pick 84 & La Young upgraded (7 spots needed)
2020: Ugle-Hagan, Stevens, MacPherson & Raak, one more pick, potentially upgrade Khamis (6 spots needed)

Even with 3-4 players trading in, the list is adding a lot of kids. Very talented kids. But highlights why this year we need to go as hard as we sensibly can to bring in mature talent. Because I doubt we will be doing it again until 2021, maybe.

Intuitively the trading pick 12 doesn't sit overly well, but the domino effect of doing so results in two outstanding years with no points deficit into 2021. We still don't know where Williams is at contract wise, so if it's either Adelaide or St Kilda, that might change things up.

[Mofra]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

I'm trying to look at how we acquire the players we are looking at if we don't win out in Port's expected draft points trade for their pick 27. So:

Adelaide: Pick 12, 30 & 46 -- Dogs Picks 21, 26, Keath & Murphy (Adelaide get a boost to their rebuild, we get mature players)

That would be heavily in our favour - that values Keath and Murphy at 621 points, roughly pick 30 for both.

I think our pick 12 will be used to trade for Keath and Bruce, which I'm comfortable with. If we can find another player as well (Murphy is a good suggestion, or Rory Atkins as a FA) that would be an outstanding trade period. We gain a genuine spine for the next few years, plus keep our kids together plus have 3 good kids at least come to us in 2020.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

That would be heavily in our favour - that values Keath and Murphy at 621 points, roughly pick 30 for both.

I think our pick 12 will be used to trade for Keath and Bruce, which I'm comfortable with. If we can find another player as well (Murphy is a good suggestion, or Rory Atkins as a FA) that would be an outstanding trade period. We gain a genuine spine for the next few years, plus keep our kids together plus have 3 good kids at least come to us in 2020.

Yep for the last part. On an Adelaide trade, the DVI difference is that but it doesn't account for the benefit of jumping into the first round. Adelaide aren't using points this year as far as I know. So my logic is that Greenwood, Betts, Jacobs, Jenkins etc won't get them deep into the first round as an upgrade trade. Chump change picks at best. This trade could get them into pick 12, so maybe they look it as Murphy for Pick 46 (which is close enough) and then Keath, 21 & 26 for picks 12 & 30. Adelaide still have a presence in the 26-30 range (slightly lower) and then it's Keath for an upgrade between pick 21 into pick 12 (9 picks). The DVI for me doesn't show the subjective benefit here of how good that is jumping into pick 12 and the seemingly jump in quality available this year.

Say they don't see it like that, we can leave out the pick 26. St Kilda won't take pick 30 for Bruce, so pick 21 has to go on him (feels a little high). That leaves us with pick 30 (not pick 21) to see what's in the market in the late second round.

Either way, we should be able to acquire 4 mature role players this year without much trade stress and probably money in the bank on kids. Just have to wait and see what's happening on the 'outgoing' side of the list in the next couple of weeks.



Edit: comparable history (1) Devon Smith & 25 for Pick 11 essentially (14 picks), (2) Jaksch & Whiley & 19 for Pick 7 essentially (12 picks).

Keath & Pick 21 for Pick 12 (9 picks) - on traded for Bruce, Pick 30 in tact
Keath & Pick 26 for Pick 12 (14 picks) - on traded for Bruce, Pick 30 in tact

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Edit: Removing Williams very loosely. Instead of hoping for a Martin/Florent or not get Papley or a Tippa. Move that reported $700,000 from Martin to bulking up our KPPs:

(1) Pick 12 - Howard, 27 & 66
(2) Picks 27 & 48 - Keath & Murphy
(3) Picks 30, 41, 46 & 84 to St Kilda - Bruce St Kilda 2020 2nd Rounder

(1. Port get another first rounder in before Mead is nominated. Better offer than North/Dons can offer.)
(2. Adelaide get a second & third rounder into the rebuild fund)
(3. St Kilda can secure Jones (30), Ryder (41) & Gray (46) with three picks offered here, Pick 5 on Hill. A win-win to get their 2020 2nd)

Picks 54 & 66 (upgrade La Young)
Draft Points Trade: Our 2020 1st & exchange 4th's - for - GCS 2020 2nd, 3rd & 4th, plus this year's pick 54

In: Keath, Howard, Bruce, Murphy, 2020 2nd Rounder (StK), with Picks 54, 66 & upgrade La Young
Outs: 7 needed: (1) Boyd (2) Morris (3) Picken (4) Webb (5) Roberts (6 & 7) From: Dickson (UC), Jong & Lynch (contracted)

No really 'big' names, but we add two competent KPDs, an established 50 goal a season KPF, add in a small pressure forward and move Trengove into the ruck column as our mature ruck depth (and other depth). That saves us chasing ‘ruck depth’. The squad is more balanced and improved, extra KPD depth and ruck depth should avoid the issues when English is unfit to play and then what we do. Assuming GCS have another poor year we have enough points to plunder the draft with mid range picks (with good draft points attached to 3 x second rounders, 2 x third rounders, 1 x fourth rounder).

Our KPDs: Keath (27), Howard* (24), Cordy* (23), Young (21)
Our KPFs: Bruce* (27), Schache* (22), Naughton* (20) Ugle-Hagan (16)
Our Rucks: English* (21), Trengove* (28), Sweet (23)
(* can play multiple roles, forward/back/other)

That’s just us moving the rejected Martin contract to covering Howard, then moving JT to ruck/fwd. Going KPP heavy in the trade period. Looks handy though. Working on replacing Boyd, Cloke, Redders, Roughead, Campbell, Morris, Collins, Adams, Roberts.

[1eyedog]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

I think Josh Bruce will make us a much better team going inside F50. We've got way better mids than The Aints and we get more inside F50s. I'd expect him to kick more than 35 goals next year in our forwardline.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Hypothetical moves to free up spots: Yes/No

Dickson left to take up free agency
Jong to GCS Pick 54 (previously interested in him)
Lynch & 84 to NORTH Pick 79 (offered him 3 years last year)

[GVGjr]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Hypothetical moves to free up spots: Yes/No

Dickson left to take up free agency
Jong to GCS Pick 54 (previously interested in him)
Lynch & 84 to NORTH Pick 79 (offered him 3 years last year)

Dickson is a no. He still has something left in the tank and it just comes down to his desire. He can still influence games. Would anyone other than us be interested anyway?
While it would be a shame to lose Jong, if another club came calling then I'd let him go. He deserves a chance to play more than what we can probably offer
Lynch is a talent but we bat deep in his best positions and I'd let him go if another club was interested

[Hotdog60]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Dickson's biggest issue is his body. If he can get a full run at it he's an asset and would only be replaced if someone else pushed him out.
As for Jong he is courageous and goes hard at the ball but is limited with his execution when he gets the ball, I'd be happy to see him get more game time elsewhere because Jong's biggest asset is what mostly keeps of the park.
Lynch hasn't gone any further since he last played seniors which is disappointing because he would be a nice foil for JJ.
But he may have peaked and that maybe as good as it gets. Happy to move.
Webb wasn't mentioned and with Porter given extra time isn't much like Webb so can we keep both. As with Lynch we may have seen the best of Webb.

[Mitcha]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Would prefer to keep Dicko as he is proven at AFL level. I know he is getting on a bit and can suffer from soft tissue injury but I think he deserves another year. I would look to trade out Gowers who I don't think has any improvement left in him, not sure there would be much interest but worth a shot to free up an additional spot. Would there be a possibility that we could demote him (or Porter) to the rookie list even if contracted? A question for those with more knowledge than me.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

For the pick splitters out there, it looks like Brisbane will we active with their 15 & 19 and Geelong I don't see as a viable option with either WA club. The only real option is Pick 12 for Adelaide's Pick 21 & 26. Trading them and pick 30.

(Names for example purposes, from media reporting) That leaves us with Pick 21 (Dougal Howard), Pick 26 (Alex Keath), Pick 30 (Josh Bruce).

Which is not dissimilar to Pick 12 for Pick 27 & Dougal Howard. Pick 27 (Alex Keath). Pick 30 (Josh Bruce). Or,
Pick 12 for Keath & Pick 26. Pick 26 (Dougal Howard). Pick 30 (Josh Bruce).

So depending on the trade targets and their value, pick splitting may/may not be worthwhile. Obviously if we have a pick 12 trade target, splitting is ruled out.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Intrigued by Ben Sokol. Still putting up crazy numbers as a WAFL forward, haven't seen him play though. 186cm medium forward, 23 years old. His last month reads:

Rd 17:
7 goals, 13 marks

Rd 18:
6 goals, 12 marks

Rd 19:
6 goals, 11 marks

Rd 20:
6 goals, 13 marks

Given our stated desire to 'get more mature' I wouldn't be surprised if he's the type on our radar if we miss out on our trade targets.

6 goals in the WAFL Grand Final. 60 goals for the year. Early call, but a good one.

[mjp]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

6 goals in the WAFL Grand Final. 60 goals for the year. Early call, but a good one.

He's just a good player...but always has been. Would have been on an AFL list for 5 years if he wore a white V rather than a black swan at the champs in 2013.

Not really a key forward. Think Dickson for a comparison.