-
Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023 -
Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020
I like your thinking. Giving up our 2019/2020 first rounders for GC’s 2019 3rd and 2020 2nd/3rd/4th would work well, and I’ve no doubt we’d get a taker on GC’s 2020 2nd from a team with multiple 2nd/3rd round picks that wants to trade up which helps us with points for NGA/Father Son.
If we get all 3 players we’re targeting this year, our 2020 first rounder will be pick 18 anyway, so we’ll only be downgrading a pick
I think we’d be missing a trick not to package up next year’s first.Our 1954 premiership players are our heroes, and it has to be said that Charlie was their hero.Comment
-
Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020
Sorry folks, this is a math post about our first rounder next year. Comrade and others have had me think about it, so I've tried to put something together to really flesh out the how's and why's. At the top of it, I don't think we should trade it outright, but we could get a benefit from it from trading it down. I obviously want our first rounder to be pick 18 next year, but for argument sake let's say it's pick 14.
Our Priority Access players include JUH, Stevens, MacPherson, Raak. A lot of points will be needed. I have a target of 3,000 points over 6 picks.
Owing to our points needs I wouldn't trade it down too much passed 1,000 draft points. Pick 14 is 1,161 draft points. Pick 19 is 948 points. I'd try to see if we can replicate the GCS/Brisbane trade from last year:
2018: Bris Future 2019 1st (Pick 14+) - for - GCS Pick 19, Future 2019 GCS 2nd (Pick 19), Haw 3rd (Pick 46)
So something like our 2020 first (Pick 14) for GCS 2nd, 3rd & 4th (which is actually less than the Brisbane trade above). I'm comfortable that GCS will finish last (& may help a Martin trade getting two first rounders for a third this year and below):
(2) Pick 19 - 948
(3) Pick 37 - 483
(4) Pick 55 - 207
= 1,638 draft points
Through Port Adelaide or others, I would look at manoeuvring to secure another 3rd rounder next from one of our third rounder this year and giving a future 4th. Plus we have our 2nd & 3rd rounders. So 6 picks means we need open up 6 spots from: Gowers, Jong, Lynch, Suckling (ret?), Greene, Porter &/or any trade requests out..
6 Picks: 2nd GCS, 2nd Dogs, 3rd GCS, 3rd Port, 3rd Dogs, 4th GCS
Target draft points is 3,000. That's based on taking JUH at pick 3 less 20% discount and the other three averaged out at matching bids at picks 27, 32 & 37 all with a 197 points discount each. They may all go higher or lower, but the target and assumptions gives us something to work with.
So 3,000 is a truck load of draft points. But if the GCS trade of lower picks for our 2020 first rounder went ahead that's 1,638 points from GCS. (Circa) 302 points from Port Adelaide (Pick 48). Dogs with picks 32 & 50 is 857 (584, 273). = 2,797 (200 points short)
Next year we look at a draft points trade of our 19 & 50 looking for something round picks 28 & 29 (109 point upgrade).
6 picks - 28 & 29 (1,330), 32 & 37 (1,067), 48 & 55 (509) = 2,906 draft points of a target of 3,000 draft points. We can also use/offer lower future 2021 picks and/or live trading to improve picks and thus avoid going into deficit (if necessary), because we are close enough to bridge the gap.
Because it's essentially a draft points draft, the number of the individual picks mean next to nothing, it's just the draft points. Myself, I'm just looking at 3,000 points and how to get them. So I'd put our first rounder next year on the table for the right draft points trade, trading down the order only. With GCS that could sweeten the deal with Martin and something for this year. But trading out the first rounder all together ensures a huge deficit. I don't like the idea of such a big deficit, with a potential 'trade loot' this year and injection of top talent next year, I'd like us to head into 2021 with a full book of picks to use or trade for what we need for sustained success. That means no deficit.
There's many ways to skin this cat that the list management team will work through, the above is just an example of how we could try to do it. There's no right or wrong on the topic, this is just my take on it.Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023Comment
-
Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020
With both sides losing we are free to start de-listing players.
Boyd, Picken & Morris (ret)
Roberts & Webb (???)
6th spot (??? - Williams & Dickson still without contracts for next year)Last edited by bulldogtragic; 08-09-2019, 12:26 PM.Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023Comment
-
Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020
BT, your going to be one of the better placed on here to answer but if we were to promote Lachlan Young could we then just draft 2 players to the primary list or does it still have to be 3?Western Bulldogs Football Club "Where it's cool to drool"Comment
-
Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023Comment
-
Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020
The Trade Loot Strategy (so named after Jon Ralp's article):
To start we need 6 players off the list. (1) Picken, (2) Boyd, (3) Morris, (4) Roberts, (5) Webb (6) From: Dickson & Williams uncontracted, while Lynch & Jong are contracted.
In: Jack Martin, Pick 52 (tied to Richmond), Pick 73, 2020 2nd, 3rd, 4th rounders
Outs: Picks 12 & 84, 2020 1st Rounder
Quick analysis: We get Martin, usable late picks and a truck load of draft points for next year. They get two first rounders and a late pick. Win-win.
In: Alex Keath
Out: Pick 30
Quick analysis: About the value of Marcus Adams, less a future third rounder. They won't give him 4 years, so his value slides a little.
In: Pick 27, 2020 3rd rounder Port Adelaide
Out: Picks 41, 46 & 48 and 2020 4th rounder
Quick Analysis: Port get a truck load of points to guarantee them Mead & Burgoyne. They come out overall in front on points most likely but that's fine.
In: Josh Bruce
Out: Pick 27
Quick Analysis: We've seen what our future looks like without another mature KPF. Pick 27 gives them currency to chase everyone and frees them up $600,000 to aid those efforts. Win-win.
(If a 7th spot opened up, Jon Ralph thinks we may be a destination for Isaac Smith. Then pick 52. But 4 incoming trades seems like a stretch right now unless Williams exits.)
2019 Draft (minimum 3): picks 52 & 73 (maybe a Zak Smith type back up ruck slides to the picks here) & La Young upgrade
2020 Draft: likely GCS 19, 37, 55 and guessing 32, 48 (Port) & 50 (very, very strong draft points hand)
KPI's:
Trade Currency: Fine
Salary Cap: Fine
Bulk up 2020 Draft Points: Very much so
For those interested in pick splitting our first rounder:
The best option right now is probably Brisbane with Picks 15-18 (tied to Collingwood) & Pick 19. (Geelong may have 16 & 22 with Kelly going to WCE, which is roughly the same). We'd need to trade picks 12 & 30 to get the deal done. They'd obviously want to do it for whatever reason.
Then we have picks 15, 19, 27.
15 for Martin & 73
19 & 73 for Bruce & 55 (upgraded 5th into 4th rounder)
27 straight Keath (maybe a little something back, don't count on it)
2019 Draft Picks: 55, 84, R UG
This model has us worse off. So unless St Kilda demand more than pick 27 and Adelaide demand more than pick 30 and we need 19 & 27, there's no real need to look at splitting.
There's no shortage of avenues for us to consider. I will try to keep refining things as we go. But this is my very rough first draft now our natural selections are locked in.Last edited by bulldogtragic; 07-09-2019, 09:12 PM.Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023Comment
-
Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020
this really helps take my mind off yesterdays disaster.
Thanks BT. either scenario looks workable.
Hope we can land Martin first of all.Comment
-
FFC: Established 1883
Premierships: AFL 1954, 2016 VFA - 1898,99,1900, 1908, 1913, 1919-20, 1923-24, VFL: 2014, 2016 . Champions of Victoria 1924. AFLW - 2018.Comment
-
Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023Comment
-
Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020
To open up spots on the playing list could we consider paying out a contracted player?
For example I'm a bit of a fan of Brad Lynch but after a promising 2018 season he didn't quite show the form you would hope he should have this year. He's been on the list for 4 years and it would be a risk to let him go but when you are desperate for spots we might have to consider it
Lin Jong might be another option and while I'd love him to make a go of it he doesn't seem to be able to string enough of the good games together.Western Bulldogs Football Club "Where it's cool to drool"Comment
-
Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020
Both players are at the back of the queue in positions we have plenty of depth. Lynch should definitely be shopping around for more opportunity. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jong gave it away, but if he doesn’t, maybe he could transform into that defensive mid/tagger you mentioned in the other thread. He doesn’t have a great footy IQ, but if he’s given a straight forward task - stop your player - he has the athletic traits to go with most midfielders. He needs to change something, as his career is stagnating.Our 1954 premiership players are our heroes, and it has to be said that Charlie was their hero.Comment
-
Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020
How long is the trade period this year and when does it start?W00F!Comment
Tweet
Comment