Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

[GVGjr]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

Looks like Tyson is staying put(and pick 9 staying at Punt Rd), according to this anyway(Denham I know)

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/afl/giants-hang-on-to-young-ruckman/story-fnca0u4y-1226489504453

So I guess only one of our picks would be on the table for Martin.

I expect Melbourne to use pick 4 for Hogan.

I'm not sure offering one pick will give us the 1st mini draft pick.
Getting access to Hogan or Kelly would be more than OK as well.

[KT31]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

Looks like Tyson is staying put(and pick 9 staying at Punt Rd), according to this anyway(Denham I know)

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/sport/afl/giants-hang-on-to-young-ruckman/story-fnca0u4y-1226489504453

So I guess only one of our picks would be on the table for Martin.

I expect Melbourne to use pick 4 for Hogan.

Hoping only one of our picks or pick and player.
If this is supposedly meant to be a more hit than a miss draft, we will still end up with two great players.
I'm sure the club has a plan B, done its homework and worked out which kids to take.

[LongWait]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

I'm not sure offering one pick will give us the 1st mini draft pick.
Getting access to Hogan or Kelly would be more than OK as well.

It starts to get interesting for us if Melbourne wants to bid for Hogan, or for MD1.

Does Melbourne use pick 4, pretty much ensuring they will get MD1? In this situation we don't want to bid a high price for MD2 unless we know that Martin will still be there. GWS will try to avoid giving us the comfort of knowing that whatever pick we bid for, we will get Martin. We cant rely on Melbourne for anything. They may bid for MD1 and then surprise everyone by picking Martin.

Do we de-risk the exercise by simply bidding the most we are prepared to pay for MD1, comfortable that if we are outbid by Melbourne or another club we will let the pick go? So, maybe a pick 5 or pick 6 for MD1 as our first and probably final offer. By bidding only for MD1 we take out all risk that we are left with MD2 but unable to use that pick on the player we want.

Another approach would be to assume it is possible that Melbourne will successfully bid for MD1 and may take either Martin or Hogan with it. So we bid for MD2 but only bid what we think that Hogan or Kelly are worth to us. If we get MD2 and another club uses MD1 to pick someone other than Martin, then we win bigtime, securing Martin for what we think is significantly unders. This is the approach that Wells at Geelong would use - be prepared to lose the player and bid unders, hoping that the slider comes to you at a great price.

The nuclear option is to put in a single bid for both MD picks - take it or leave it. If we rate Hogan and/or Kelly highly enough that might be worthwhile, although might see us lose the opportunity to also get someone like Stringer and would raise concern with supporters that we have chosen players who can't play until 2014.

On balance, I think we'll just offer pick 5 or 6 for MD1 and leave it at that. If that doesn't get MD1, then too bad.

[Go_Dogs]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

On balance, I think we'll just offer pick 5 or 6 for MD1 and leave it at that. If that doesn't get MD1, then too bad.

Really hope we offer both for MD 1 & 2. If we can't get it done, I agree that we should only look to part with 5 or 6. Martin and Hogan however could set us up for the next 10+ years.

Another option could be, if we want MD1 and Anderson, offer up 5 and 6, and perhaps have our 2nd and 3rd round picks upgraded by GWS, or if they don't intend on using those picks, just have their selections so we can be done picking early in the 3rd.

Very hard to read what Melbourne may actually do. Hope they keep their noses out of it.

[divvydan]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

Story in today's Age from Emma Quayle on Jed Anderson for those interested in reading more about his story.

http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/trials-of-life-20121005-2750u.html

[Maddog37]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

What a great attitude for a kid that has had a very tough road. Another ripper from Emma. I love her work.

[mjp]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

Why do people think Melbourne would select Hogan ahead of Martin?

[SlimPickens]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

Why do people think Melbourne would select Hogan ahead of Martin?

Tend to agree one thing Melbourne actually have is some key forwards and considering they're in the race to get Dawes I'd be surprised if they chased Hogan.

[anfo27]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

Why do people think Melbourne would select Hogan ahead of Martin?

If they get Dawes then they would probably be after Martin. Either way Martin seems like the best prospect & whoever gets the first pick in the mini draft will be silly not to take Martin.

[Greystache]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

Tend to agree one thing Melbourne actually have is some key forwards and considering they're in the race to get Dawes I'd be surprised if they chased Hogan.

They've got Mitch Clark but nothing else really, I can see why they'd chase Hogan. Their issue is they need to be really confident they'll land Dawes if they pass on Hogan and they have to make the decision on Hogan first.

They've got holes all over their list, but they've had a lot of busts with skinny running players in recent times. I'm not saying Martin is more of the same, but I could understand if they preferred to focus on bigger bodied kids who are similarly highly rated.

[SlimPickens]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

They've got Mitch Clark but nothing else really, I can see why they'd chase Hogan. Their issue is they need to be really confident they'll land Dawes if they pass on Hogan and they have to make the decision on Hogan first.

They've got holes all over their list, but they've had a lot of busts with skinny running players in recent times. I'm not saying Martin is more of the same, but I could understand if they preferred to focus on bigger bodied kids who are similarly highly rated.

Fair point still think watts will develop forward also think they'll see Fitzpatrick get more time in their forward line.

[Mofra]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

Jack Martin is the best available by all accounts - everyone in the know says he's a lock for MD1. Pick 4 from Melbourne will be very hard to beat, and given they still have a mid-first round compo pick they may well be open to using it.

[Greystache]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

Fair point still think watts will develop forward also think they'll see Fitzpatrick get more time in their forward line.

I think Watts is continually improving and gets a pretty rough time, but from a list management point of view I don't think you could bank on him becoming a key forward option. Fitzpatrick I don't know about, moves well but not sure if he can really play.

Realistically Melbourne need about 8 players with their first 2 picks and need all of them to be guns, but what happens with Dawes in the next couple of days will probably dictate their MD stategy.

Personally I'd be open to either Martin or Hogan given we have needs in both areas, and our drafting approach can be tailored around who we get in the MD.

[LongWait]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

Why do people think Melbourne would select Hogan ahead of Martin?

There has been media speculation that Melbourne are very keen on Hogan and that they are more interested in Hogan than they are in Martin.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

I'd be trying to package pick 5 + 6 for Martin, Hogan and Anderson.

Perhaps we need to add a second round pick or a player.

If that can't be done, pick 6 + a Markovic/Sherman type is as far as we should go.