2013 draft watch

[Topdog]

Re: 2013 draft watch

Realistically, we are likely to have a top 5 pick .....
I'm interested to hear what people think we need most?

I'm unsure if we need a player like Boyd and would prefer 1 more versatile mid however if Boyd can seriously play and he is a significant upgrade on what we have, I think we would be crazy not to take him. Those guys are rare. I also think someone like Scharenberg, who from all accounts sounds a bit like a Grant Birchall type defensive runner type, is someone we need but a top 5 pick may be a little much.

Obviously early days but what do you think?

You only get top quality KPF's in the top 5 (well 99% of the time). You can pick up top quality midfielders anywhere.

[GVGjr]

Re: 2013 draft watch

With that in mind, it seems likely that we will get a good look at Dunstan, Crouch, Billings, Boyd and Sheed. With Boyd being a big forward and all of the rest being mids of differing varietys, I'm interested to hear what people think we need most?

I'm unsure if we need a player like Boyd and would prefer 1 more versatile mid however if Boyd can seriously play and he is a significant upgrade on what we have, I think we would be crazy not to take him. Those guys are rare. I also think someone like Scharenberg, who from all accounts sounds a bit like a Grant Birchall type defensive runner type, is someone we need but a top 5 pick may be a little much.

Obviously early days but what do you think?

In reality we need a bit of everything. I'm sure we could find a home for a mobile key defender, a tall marking forward, a lighting quick midfielder who can distribute the ball or a smart and skilled mid sized flanker.

Purely on needs I'd probably lean towards a quality key forward but in reality we just need to add the best players available if they address any of your needs.

[GVGjr]

Re: 2013 draft watch

Jonathon Marsh.

Let Scharenberg's nightmares begin.

Harrison's brother?

[Scorlibo]

Re: 2013 draft watch

You only get top quality KPF's in the top 5 (well 99% of the time). You can pick up top quality midfielders anywhere.

You won't be finding an Adam Cooney just anywhere.

Take a look at the best key forward and midfielder from each side in the competition:

ADEL - Walker (NSW scholarship pick #75), Dangerfield (#10)
BRIS - Brown (F/S #31), Rockliff (pre-season #5)
CARL - Waite (F/S #46), Judd (#3)
COLL - Cloke (F/S #39), Pendlebury (#5)
ESS - Crameri (rookie #44), Watson (F/S #40)
FREM - Pavlich (#4), Fyfe (#20)
GEEL - Hawkins (F/S #41), Selwood (#7)
GOLD - Dixon (zone selection), Ablett (F/S #40)
GWS - Cameron (17 yo selection), Ward (#19)
HAW - Franklin (#5), Mitchell (#36)
MELB - Clark (#9), Jones (#12)
NORTH - Petrie (#23), Swallow (#43)
PORT - Westhoff (#71), Hartlett (#4)
RICH - Riewoldt (#13), Cotchin (#2)
STK - Riewoldt (#1), Hayes (#11)
SYD - Tippett (#32), Kennedy (F/S #40)
WCE - Kennedy (#4), Selwood (#22)
WB - Jones (#32), Liberatore (F/S #40)

KPF vs MIDS

F/S: 4 vs 4
rookie/pre-season: 1 vs 1
ND top 20 picks: 6 vs 10
other ND picks: 4 vs 3
special selections: 3 vs 0

I'm sick of this "you only get good key forwards with high picks" argument. The stats just don't support it.

[Remi Moses]

Re: 2013 draft watch

Those father sons put up would have gone early in the draft.
Agree with others on best Available, but if the best available is between a key forward and a mid?
Clubs will go key forward. Might not have a say anyway.

[Maddog37]

Re: 2013 draft watch

This tells me we need to get all our 100 game players into the breeding barn ASAP.

[Scorlibo]

Re: 2013 draft watch

Those father sons put up would have gone early in the draft.
Agree with others on best Available, but if the best available is between a key forward and a mid?
Clubs will go key forward. Might not have a say anyway.

You can count the 4 father son KPFs as first rounders, sure. You can also count Liberatore and Ablett as first rounders, and you'd still have the evidence supporting drafting midfielders with high draft picks. All of those boys would have gone top ten.

So you think KPFs are more important than mids? You won't find much support via any factual measure.

The best argument you could make would be that because it's a specialist position, the difference between the best KPFs and the worst is bigger than the difference between the best mids and the worst.

Using Supercoach points:

Top ten AFL mids after 5 rounds:

Ablett - 136, Cornes - 129, Pendlebury - 129, Cotchin - 125, Swan - 125, Watson - 124, Selwood - 118, Mitchell - 117, Stanton - 116, Kennedy - 116.
AVERAGE: 124

Top ten AFL KPFs after 5 rounds:

Westhoff - 123, N.Riewoldt - 114, Cloke - 112, Kennedy - 108, Franklin - 94, Lynch - 91, Howe - 88 [plays like a key forward], J.Riewoldt - 88, Darling - 83, Roughead - 82.
AVERAGE: 98.3

If the bottom 10 mids who consistently get a full game (and who don't tag) then get roughly 75, that makes it a 50 point gap between the best and worst. There isn't the same gap between the best and worst KPFs, therefore it's more important to have elite mids.

[Topdog]

Re: 2013 draft watch

You won't be finding an Adam Cooney just anywhere.

Take a look at the best key forward and midfielder from each side in the competition:

ADEL - Walker (NSW scholarship pick #75), Dangerfield (#10)
BRIS - Brown (F/S #31), Rockliff (pre-season #5)
CARL - Waite (F/S #46), Judd (#3)
COLL - Cloke (F/S #39), Pendlebury (#5)
ESS - Crameri (rookie #44), Watson (F/S #40)
FREM - Pavlich (#4), Fyfe (#20)
GEEL - Hawkins (F/S #41), Selwood (#7)
GOLD - Dixon (zone selection), Ablett (F/S #40)
GWS - Cameron (17 yo selection), Ward (#19)
HAW - Franklin (#5), Mitchell (#36)
MELB - Clark (#9), Jones (#12)
NORTH - Petrie (#23), Swallow (#43)
PORT - Westhoff (#71), Hartlett (#4)
RICH - Riewoldt (#13), Cotchin (#2)
STK - Riewoldt (#1), Hayes (#11)
SYD - Tippett (#32), Kennedy (F/S #40)
WCE - Kennedy (#4), Selwood (#22)
WB - Jones (#32), Liberatore (F/S #40)

KPF vs MIDS

F/S: 4 vs 4
rookie/pre-season: 1 vs 1
ND top 20 picks: 6 vs 10
other ND picks: 4 vs 3
special selections: 3 vs 0

I'm sick of this "you only get good key forwards with high picks" argument. The stats just don't support it.

except the F/S key forwards were almost all going to go very high in the draft and the F/S mids weren't going to. Ablett and Watson werent going any higher than 30. Libba no higher than 20, Kennedy I dont remember TBH.

Also it's not about the teams best forward, its about actual quality.

[lemmon]

Re: 2013 draft watch

Plus Ports key forward is Jay Schultz who went pick 12, Westhoff is a genuine utility this year

[Remi Moses]

Re: 2013 draft watch

You can count the 4 father son KPFs as first rounders, sure. You can also count Liberatore and Ablett as first rounders, and you'd still have the evidence supporting drafting midfielders with high draft picks. All of those boys would have gone top ten.

So you think KPFs are more important than mids? You won't find much support via any factual measure.

The best argument you could make would be that because it's a specialist position, the difference between the best KPFs and the worst is bigger than the difference between the best mids and the worst.

Using Supercoach points:

Top ten AFL mids after 5 rounds:

Ablett - 136, Cornes - 129, Pendlebury - 129, Cotchin - 125, Swan - 125, Watson - 124, Selwood - 118, Mitchell - 117, Stanton - 116, Kennedy - 116.
AVERAGE: 124

Top ten AFL KPFs after 5 rounds:

Westhoff - 123, N.Riewoldt - 114, Cloke - 112, Kennedy - 108, Franklin - 94, Lynch - 91, Howe - 88 [plays like a key forward], J.Riewoldt - 88, Darling - 83, Roughead - 82.
AVERAGE: 98.3

If the bottom 10 mids who consistently get a full game (and who don't tag) then get roughly 75, that makes it a 50 point gap between the best and worst. There isn't the same gap between the best and worst KPFs, therefore it's more important to have elite mids.

Please don't throw up that super coach rubbish when assessing footballers.
Matthew Boyd would have had about 5 brownlows by now.
Just watching Jack Darling have 5 goals to half time backs my argument.
Throw up as many stats you like, but ask anyone involved in the sport and they'll tell you key forwards win games and flags.

[Remi Moses]

Re: 2013 draft watch

except the F/S key forwards were almost all going to go very high in the draft and the F/S mids weren't going to. Ablett and Watson werent going any higher than 30. Libba no higher than 20, Kennedy I dont remember TBH.

Also it's not about the teams best forward, its about actual quality.

So why do the likes of Cloke and Buddy get offered the big dollars?
Cloke Brown Hawkins all father sons would have been early picks.

[Topdog]

Re: 2013 draft watch

Exactly right Remi

[Topdog]

Re: 2013 draft watch

You can count the 4 father son KPFs as first rounders, sure. You can also count Liberatore and Ablett as first rounders, and you'd still have the evidence supporting drafting midfielders with high draft picks. All of those boys would have gone top ten.

Brown, Cloke and Hawkins were all top 10 picks easily, the same cannot be said for Libba or Ablett. Neither were rated that highly and you continuously repeating it isnt going to make it true.

Sydney bid for Libba with pick 21 and Ablett was rated as a top 20 pick too.

[Scorlibo]

Re: 2013 draft watch

except the F/S key forwards were almost all going to go very high in the draft and the F/S mids weren't going to. Ablett and Watson werent going any higher than 30. Libba no higher than 20, Kennedy I dont remember TBH.

Also it's not about the teams best forward, its about actual quality.

If I remember correctly Ablett was highly touted. Libba no higher than 20? Any recruiter who let Libba pass their pick at 20 would be sacked, he was very well regarded and would have gone higher than Wallis. Probably top 10. Watson and Kennedy were each just mid rangers without the F/S tag, I think you're on the money there.

Like I said previously, even if you count the 4 F/S as high draft picks in that analysis, the mids still either break even or win!

What on earth do you mean by 'actual quality'? Most sides only have 2 mainstay key forwards so we're effectively considering half of the bunch. Please explain.

Plus Ports key forward is Jay Schultz who went pick 12, Westhoff is a genuine utility this year

Westhoff has been playing a lot forward, and a lot better than Shultz. Bit rich arguing you want to spend high draft picks on key forwards because you want someone of Shultz's quality.

Please don't throw up that super coach rubbish when assessing footballers.
Matthew Boyd would have had about 5 brownlows by now.
Just watching Jack Darling have 5 goals to half time backs my argument.
Throw up as many stats you like, but ask anyone involved in the sport and they'll tell you key forwards win games and flags.

Until the official AFL rankings are unveiled at the end of this week, supercoach rankings are the best objective measure of player output in any team sport in the world. They are scientific, and you'd have to be barking to not know that by now.

Yet, you seem to know nothing about them. Let me enlighten you. If Brownlows were decided on SC points, Matthew Boyd would have precisely ZERO Brownlow Medals. He'd actually likely be polling fewer votes than he does currently. Maybe you're getting confused with Dream Team, Remi.

Can you elaborate on how Jack Darling's great first half helps you make the argument that key forwards win premierships and are generally a better investment than midfielders? I don't see it. There have been many excellent first halves displayed by midfielders this year, yet you're not saying that they disprove your argument?

Last I checked, the last 17 Norm Smith winners have been midfielders or players who rotate predominantly through the midfield. You'd have to go back 24 years to Gary Ablett Sr to find the last KPF norm smith winner.

Also, I didn't realise that by asking someone (anyone?) involved in the sport, one is seeking out the one truth on the matter. I play footy on the weekends, do I count as being involved in the sport?

[lemmon]

Re: 2013 draft watch

Brown, Cloke and Hawkins were all top 10 picks easily, the same cannot be said for Libba or Ablett. Neither were rated that highly and you continuously repeating it isnt going to make it true.

Sydney bid for Libba with pick 21 and Ablett was rated as a top 20 pick too.

Yep, Hawkins would've vied with Bryce Gibbs to go number 1. Essendon are a great example for mine, have invested heavily in key position players and its paying dividends; Hurley, Gumby, Ryder, now Joe Danniher were all high first rounds. Even Jake Carlisle was pick 24. Their midfield, with Stanton, Melksham Goddard and Heppell aside all came outside of the first round.