BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

[hujsh]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Pick 44.

We'd need to stare them down. They have only two years previously offered to Keath. We have four years, on more money. They put out a press release about Keath wanting out. Keath is a former rookie, 27yo with 30 games experience. Etc, etc, etc.

How about 44 and next years second for their 3rd next year? Probably equates for around pick 30 in points (guessing there) and gives us something back for points next year

[GVGjr]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

In the above scenario are we left with enough to put together an offer for Keath without losing pick 13?

For what it's worth, I don't think we can land both Keath and Bruce without using it
We can however, get something additional (perhaps next year) coming back to us

[hujsh]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

For what it's worth, I don't think we can land both Keath and Bruce without using it
We can however, get something additional (perhaps next year) coming back to us

I'd almost like to keep it purely so we can turn it into currency for next year and then just take some pot shots on indigenous kids later in the draft.

[The Adelaide Connection]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Casting an eye over our revised picks, a few different ideas pop up...

Freo may need to throw a pick back to St Kilda for Brad Hill. Plus they need draft points for their NGA nominee Henry... So Pick 32 & 52 to Feeo for their Pick 26. Freo hand St Kilda back a second rounder, but a revised lower second rounder but Freo hold onto pick 52's assigned draft points. They come out ahead about 145 draft points ahead by the move. We move up our second rounder 6 spots for the sum of Pick 52. St Kilda, well, they should be happy they get Hill and our offer of Pick 26 for Bruce and has a choice of Picks 26 or 32 to offer for Zak Jones. Everyone wins to different degrees.

So Draft Picks: 13, 26, 44, 50 & 88.

Bruce for Pick 26.
Keath for Pick 44.
Pick 50 for a 2020 3rd rounder (Freo especially, but Port & Hawks may be interested for draft points this year).
Zac Smith or Tom Nicholls types as UFA/DFA (or pick 88) ruck insurance. (Do it in draft if 6-7 spots won't open up).

Pick 13:

Draft. Pick 13, very late pick & upgrade La Young.
Trade. For a bigger name player outright - Two late draft picks & La Young.
Trade. Pick 24 & WCE small (Venables/Petrechelle type) helping the Kelly trade - Pick 24, very late pick & upgrade La Young.




The Adelaide centred trade strategy:

Pick 13 for Keath & Pick 23.
Pick 26 for Bruce (pick from below).
Pick 32 & 52 for Freo's Pick 26 (145 points ahead for Freo).
Pick 50 for 2020 3rd rounder (Freo especially, but Port & Hawks may be interested for draft points this year).
Zac Smith or Tom Nicholls types as UFA/DFA (or pick 88) ruck insurance. (Do it in draft if 6-7 spots won't open up)

Draft Picks: 23, 44.

Pick 23:

Draft/Trade. Pick 23, (44 for future 3rd), late pick and upgraded La Young.
Trade/Draft. (Pick 23 traded on a player = WCE Player for comparison value), Pick 44, late pick and upgraded La Young.



Both scenarios that involve a third player trade are very close overall. Pick 24 as our first pick in scenario one. Pick 44 as our first pick in scenario two. The difference is attributable to how cheap we can get Keath, being as he's uncontracted and our offer is 100% longer in length and more money too. If we can get Keath on the cheaper side, then pick 13 remains in play if we have the 'another big fish' which Sam Landsberger thinks, or ready to pounce if Martin & Papley trades can't get done. If we are forced to give up more for Keath, then it's the Pick 44 scenario two. Also, I think pick 26 is fair value for Josh Bruce (especially since two picks in that pick order are AFEL priority picks). So you'd think Keath & Bruce gets done with an option on a third player and depending on list spots, ruck insurance.

Either way: three quality players, maybe ruck insurance, a mid pick & late pick at the draft & upgrade La Young. Walk away very happy as a clubs and membership base. Hopefully by mid next week it's been a fun ride, one to really favour. Having had to endure a few bad ones.

I am not sure if I am reading it right, but is 32 & 52 offer enough of an incentive to Freo to get them to trade 26?

If I have the most updated index, I have 32+52 as only 101 points more than 26 (26=729 and 32+52 (584+246))=830.

There is a likelihood that 52 (and maybe even 32) get bumped down a few spots before they can use them on Henry, diluting their draft point gain even further. It looks like for every one spot the pair of pick gets downgraded they lose 34 points.

Firstly, have I got this right? Secondly, would this be enough to get them to risk?

[GVGjr]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

I'd almost like to keep it purely so we can turn it into currency for next year and then just take some pot shots on indigenous kids later in the draft.

Would you be OK losing either Keath or Bruce in the process?

I think the fact that they have nominated us means we have to work a bit harder to get the deals done.

We can manage things for next year

[Remi Moses]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Listening to this trade radio and the proposed trades fans of their clubs put up
Is hilarity 101

[hujsh]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Would you be OK losing either Keath or Bruce in the process?

I think the fact that they have nominated us means we have to work a bit harder to get the deals done.

We can manage things for next year

It would depend on the circumstances. I'd not deal 13 for either without something significant coming back.

You seem to have taken the opposite view to how this normally works with nomination. Quite often the player nominates and the club takes what it can get for him. We've been that club more often than not. I don't see the need to do the Saints any real favours when they've told a guy with a year on his contract he won't be extended.

Personally I'd be keen to package some or all of 45, 51 and 53 (pick 23 in points overall) for Bruce and sending 32 for Keath. All up those picks are worth pick 10 in points so we have some currency to work with before eating into 13.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

How about 44 and next years second for their 3rd next year? Probably equates for around pick 30 in points (guessing there) and gives us something back for points next year

With now everyone knowing about Keath's stress fracture in his shin, and the subsequent surgery, and him missing half or more of the preseason. Pick 44 seems about right now in my estimation.

My Freo based trade idea getting pick 26, used on Bruce, and a banged up ex-rookie on long years and huge money for Pick 44. That's at least a fighting chance of leaving pick 13 out of things. It might still get pulled in, but there's a chance it doesn't.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

I am not sure if I am reading it right, but is 32 & 52 offer enough of an incentive to Freo to get them to trade 26?

If I have the most updated index, I have 32+52 as only 101 points more than 26 (26=729 and 32+52 (584+246))=830.

There is a likelihood that 52 (and maybe even 32) get bumped down a few spots before they can use them on Henry, diluting their draft point gain even further. It looks like for every one spot the pair of pick gets downgraded they lose 34 points.

Firstly, have I got this right? Secondly, would this be enough to get them to risk?

I can recall numerous trades where 100+ points draft pick increases have been sufficient to facilitate a draft points trade.

It's also a matter of perspective. St Kilda have not demanded Freo's 26. St Kilda have said it needs to be a pick in the 20's or 30's, giving them permission to trade it down almost. This happened to us in the Akermanis trade, where we had to provide 'a second rounder' so we traded down pick 29 down to pick 34 with WCE to get Doogs Droogs. Still handing over a second rounder, but getting a theoretical advantage.

If Freo didn't trade pick 26, then they may have to put that in the trade or risk a smooth enough trade. If they trade 26 to us, then they hand St Kilda pick 32 and then Pick 52 (246 points) is a bonus. So in actual calculation it's a 101 point benefit, which is good enough. But if they know they need to hand back a pick in the 20's or 30's, then the trading down with us leaves them with 246 more draft points (Pick 52) than doing nothing. They could ask for Pick 50 instead. Or I think, they could ask for 32, 50 & 52 for Pick 26 & 2020 3rd rounder. Which I'd be happy with.

[hujsh]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

With now everyone knowing about Keath's stress fracture in his shin, and the subsequent surgery, and him missing half or more of the preseason. Pick 44 seems about right now in my estimation.

My Freo based trade idea getting pick 26, used on Bruce, and a banged up ex-rookie on long years and huge money for Pick 44. That's at least a fighting chance of leaving pick 13 out of things. It might still get pulled in, but there's a chance it doesn't.

Yeah that certainly changes things. If Keath is done for a 3rd round pick I personally can't see us giving up 13 unless we really don't see much value in it.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Yeah that certainly changes things. If Keath is done for a 3rd round pick I personally can't see us giving up 13 unless we really don't see much value in it.

Yep. Then there's four options I see for pick 13 right now:

1. Draft at Pick 13
2. Trade Pick 13 for 24 & suitable WCE player, then use draft Pick 24 (Kelly trade related)
3. Trade Pick 13 for a gun (and Martin's rejected $700,000)
4. Trade Pick 13 for GCS Pick 57 & 2020 Pick 11 & Tom Nicholls (across the seasons: Dogs Pick 13 for GCS Pick 11, 57 & Nicholls)

[hujsh]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Yep. Then there's four options I see for pick 13 right now:

1. Draft at Pick 13
2. Trade Pick 13 for 24 & suitable WCE player, then use draft Pick 24 (Kelly trade related)
3. Trade Pick 13 for a gun (and Martin's rejected $700,000)
4. Trade Pick 13 for GCS Pick 57 & 2020 Pick 11 & Tom Nicholls (across the seasons: Dogs Pick 13 for GCS Pick 11, 57 & Nicholls)

Is 4 a salary dump for them? Not quite sure what GC get out of it. If it's points I don't think they need them with the new concessions

[Hotdog60]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Give pick 13 and Dickson and Roberts for Ben King and tell it's a good deal to stick it up St Kilda for open poaching.

They get a high pick and some experience in two premiership players, King goes to Victoria.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Is 4 a salary dump for them? Not quite sure what GC get out of it. If it's points I don't think they need them with the new concessions

With GCS, they bring their 2020 Pick 11 compo pick forward into this year, supercharging their draft hand. Giving them Picks 1, 13 & 20 as priority picks this year plus picks 2 & 15. They use picks 1 & 2, then look at trading 13, 15 & 20 (plus picks this year or next for Ah Chee & Martin) on the best players they can get (Brad Crouch, Greenwood etc). They still hold their natural first and second rounders next year.

Nicholls could be delisted if he doesn't find a home as a free agent. Nicholls could walk to us as a free agent also. This just makes it simple to include him as we are apparently looking for ruck insurance. The benefit we get is pick 57 this year (they may or may not use) and a shitload of points with Pick 11 & Our Natural 1st if we fear JUH will go pick 1 or 2.

Both clubs get some mutual benefit of the year the pick is in, just swapping them over. There's no huge win other than manipulating our first this year into next year, and them bringing next year's compo pick into this year.

[The Doctor]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Dogs have rejected Adelaide offer of Keath + one of their 2nd rounders 23 or 28. We will not be trading our 1st round pick 13 according to this report

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/keath-injury-puts-twist-on-trade-20191007-p52ygf.html