BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

He's just a good player...but always has been. Would have been on an AFL list for 5 years if he wore a white V rather than a black swan at the champs in 2013.

Not really a key forward. Think Dickson for a comparison.

Do you think he's done enough thus season to finally get the attention of scouts? I read he's now been invited to the WA testing.

[Mofra]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Do you think he's done enough thus season to finally get the attention of scouts? I read he's now been invited to the WA testing.

Based on his numbers there isn't much more he could do.
Dickson played at Noble Park as an adult at one point.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

I'm looking at draft market manipulation, within the rules (maybe not in the spirit of them but the big clubs ignore the spirit of them so why shouldn't we think about it at least) just for something to do...

1. Scott Lycett earned WCE end of first round compo, reportedly at 5 years on $600,000. Copy this.
2. Trade pick 12 to Adelaide for Keath and 21.
3. Offer (way overs) on Jamie Elliott at 5 years on $600,000 only on the following happening:
4. Collingwood get pick 19 compo because of our artificial inflation/market manipulation (that good will carries over to below):
5. Trade Collingwood pick 21 & 48 for Darcy Moore & 69 (& Gowers for free if they want a lesser replacement to cover Elliott)
6. Picks 19, 21 & 48 equates to Pick 4 on the DVI - for Moore & Elliott
7. Collingwood get 19 & 21 (effectivly for Moore), Pick 48 & Gowers (if wanted) (effectivly for Elliott which is not far from 2nd round compo range plus Gowers). That's a good trade on Moore and about what they'd get for Elliott if he leaves. All in all, both clubs win if you rate the players, with manipulating the AFEL compo system to inflate the trade offer for the benefit of both clubs.
8. Currently their selections are pick 33, 51, 64 (With the trade & manipulation: Picks 19, 21, 33, 48, 51, 64 plus Gowers if wanted)
9. Dogs get Moore, Elliott, Keath & Bruce for picks 12, 30 & 48 (fully utilised salary cap with wages of Dicko & Gowers gone)
10. Those picks must tempt Collingwood, especially with no picks before the late 30's after compo pushes them out. Adelaide get another good first rounder. St Kilda get the pick to on trade for Zak Jones. Everyone's winning so far.
11. Picks 41 & 46 to St Kilda for their 2020 second rounder.
12. Two late draft picks 69, 84
13. Upgrade La Young


I'm not suggesting this is going to happen at all. The most aggravating case of alleged manipulation with clubs was the Hawthorn & Vickery deal/2nd round compo to Richmond. It's probably a matter of time before another club tried something like this on. While the AFEL can hold up ticking the deal off, it's seems quite within the rules. Particularly if there's a bidding war on to get the Free Agent that can cover up any compo manipulation (allegedly 5 clubs chasing Elliott, of course they needed to pay more and offer longer years to secure his services. 'Small' clubs especially), then the trade is simple and the how you see both actions is through your own prism.

With the injuries both players have had recently, I wonder if 19, 21, 48 & Gowers/even Dickson as a replacement option would be enough to get Collingwood thinking seriously. I guess are they topping up for another tilt, or looking to bring in some good kids?

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

I will put the kill joy part of it here:

In: 3 on draft night, Bruce, Keath
Out: Picken, Boyd, Morris, Roberts, Webb

One more decent player brings in Dicko, or a trade request from Jong or Lynch.
One more decent player and ruck insurance bring in two of Dickson & or trade requests from Jong or Lynch.

Right on the edge of needing to push one or two out with two good trades on the horizon and the picks & 5 X $700,000 still in the kitty from Martin rejecting us.

[GVGjr]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

I will put the kill joy part of it here:

In: 3 on draft night, Bruce, Keath
Out: Picken, Boyd, Morris, Roberts, Webb

One more decent player brings in Dicko, or a trade request from Jong or Lynch.
One more decent player and ruck insurance bring in two of Dickson & or trade requests from Jong or Lynch.

Right on the edge of needing to push one or two out with two good trades on the horizon and the picks & 5 X $700,000 still in the kitty from Martin rejecting us.

And we might even upgrade Lachlan Young and draft just two players

[comrade]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

And we might even upgrade Lachlan Young and draft just two players

Looking likely.

I think we're probably looking to hold on to the likes of Jong, Gowers, Lynch, Porter etc so we can move them on next year, opening up list spots that enables us to upgrade/hoard 2nd & 3rd round picks next year to use on our NGA/Father-Son prospects.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

And we might even upgrade Lachlan Young and draft just two players

I'm good with that. Lots of great kids next year, let's get the mature very good players in this year.

It's getting hard to see Dickson playing with us next year now. We must rate Porter a bit to have signed him up in advance of this trade period.

[comrade]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

I hope one of the kids we draft this year is Josh Kellett.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

A bit of a math post:

Pick 12 for Keath & Bruce (Pick 21 comes back, after compo is Pick 24 for Bruce, exchange of 2020 thirds our way if we can)
After likely compo
Pick 33
Pick 44
Pick 49
Pick 52
Pick 84

Fremantle are in need of draft points to cover an NGA player likely to go early to mid teens. Say they get Melbourne's top of third rounder for Langdon. After compo pick 41.

Trade Freo pick 33, 49 & 52 - for - pick 41 & 2020 second rounder. Fremantle get the equivalent of Pick 27 in draft points, what their second rounder might be close to next year for us. They might be open to a reciprocal draft points trade.

Zac Smith for pick 84 (or DFA)

Draft points trade 2020 1st & 4th for GCS's 2020 2nd, 3rd, 4th (could do it near year also)


2019: Picks 41, 44 & upgrade La Young - with - Keath, Bruce, Smith (with $500,000++ spare, maybe a free agent. Jamie Elliott??)
2020: 2nd GCS, 2nd Freo, 2nd Dogs, 3rd GCS, 3rd Dogs/St Kilda, 4th GCS (likely covers our priority access players)


Many, many more options for us still. With our picks and money, after accounting for Keath & Bruce, we still have the power to impact this trade period further. Good to be us!

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Alternate version: In a world where St Kilda & Freo come together very quickly on Hill, because St Kilda want the first round downgrade benefit over a second rounder from us (not Adelaide):

Saints: Hill & 25 - Freo Pick 6, 42 & 47, 56, 68
Dogs: 42, 47 (above is = Pick 26 DVI to Freo's NGA) - Freo 2020 2nd
Dogs: Bruce & 25 - Saints 13
Dogs: Keath & Pick 27 - Crows 25, 31

Dogs: Bruce & Keath, 2020 second rounder (Freo) - Picks 13, 42, 47 (NOTE: Strong result this year & next year)
Saints: Hill, Pick 13 - Bruce, Picks 6, 25, 56 (NOTE: Strong result. Quick action makes them big winners)
Freo: Picks 6, 42, 47, 56, 68 - Hill, Pick 25, 2020 2nd rounder (NOTE: Strong result. Top 10 pick, draft points cover Henry & more picks)
Adelaide: Picks 25, 31 - Keath, Pick 27 (NOTE: Strong result. Pick 25, minor shuffle 27>31)

Geelong: Pick 85 - Zac Smith (NOTE: Anything is a fine result)

Dogs: Picks 27, 49 & La Young upgraded - Keath, Bruce, Zac Smith - 2020 2nd rounder from Freo - $700,000 cap spare (Elliott?)


Not much in this version changes for us. But whoever gets in first to get our first rounder downgrade out of Adelaide & St Kilda wins a little more. St Kilda can only try to take this on if they deal with Freo super quick and get pick 25 back.

[GVGjr]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

So the players on our list from this years that are either confirmed or highly likely to be departing are:

Confirmed departures - Tom Boyd, Dale Morris and Liam Picken
Likely departures - Fletcher Roberts, Lukas Webb, Roarke Smith (R) and Ryan Gardner (R)
Under the pump - Tory Dickson
Highly speculative departures by low key trades - Lin Jong, Billy Gowers and Brad Lynch

If we include Dickson as departing then it's 6 spots on the senior list and obviously 5 if he gets another deal
With two as good as confirmed inclusions in Bruce and Keath that drops the open spots down to 4 or 3

If we upgrade Lachlan Young, as I think we should, it could result in as few as just two additions via the draft and maybe one more spot open for a trade. I guess the easy option is to maintain Young as a rookie but he performed well enough to warrant a promotion

On top of that we have a few targets for the 2020 draft that we will need to amass some additional points for

I think we can trade for one more player but we won't be major players in the draft this year and will probably make selections from the 3rd round in the draft. Could we even delist and then re-draft a player?

It will be interesting to see if any of our contracted players that are likely to be squeezed out our best 22 request to be traded or if other clubs inquire about their availability

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Bang on assessment GVGjr.

I was thinking about it last night after I logged off. In the passed few years we've paid out players (Cloke, Redpath) to free up spots and cull dead contracted wood. So we know the club has a preparedness to do this. This might be a back up position if need be.

Fremantle looks more and more ripe for points trade - Picks 42 & 47 for a future second rounder.

Then with 13 being manipulated to get Keath & Bruce. Say pick 84/DFA for a depth Ruckmen (Zac Smith).

We then have picks 31 & 49 and upgraded La Young. But we still have $700,000 to acquire another good trade. The more I look at Keath & Bruce and our list, with a bunch of kids next year, I think we should look to go responsibly hard in trying to create a 5-6 window we are seriously competing. So I'm all for using that $700,000 on a good trade this year. We won't have much presence in the draft, but next year we will.

So one way or another I'd move on two of the players you list (by taking 4 during this trade period). And I share the curiosity about any better players who get chased hard by another club and ask for a trade. If that happens.

[GVGjr]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Current breakdown by position assuming the confirmed and likely departures happen

Defenders: (14)
Key Defenders: Lewis Young, Jackson Trengove, Zaine Cordy, Alex Keath*
Mid Sized Defenders: Matthew Suckling, Hayden Crozier, Easton Wood, Laitham Vandermeer, Buku Khamis (R), Bailey Williams, Lachlan Young (R)
Small Defenders: Taylor Duryea, Caleb Daniel, Jason Johannisen

Midfielders: (Includes Rucks) (15)
Tall Midfielders: Marcus Bontempelli, Josh Dunkley, Jackson Macrae, Patrick Lipinski, Lin Jong
Mid/Small Midfielders: Mitch Wallis, Bailey Smith, Lachie Hunter, Toby McLean, Ed Richards, Tom Liberatore, Callum Porter, Will Hayes,
Rucks: Tim English, Jordon Sweet (R)

Forwards: (11)
Key Fowards: Josh Schache, Aaron Naughton, Josh Bruce*
Mid Sized Forwards: Sam Lloyd, Billy Gowers, Tory Dickson, Fergus Greene, Bailey Dale, Brad Lynch
Small Forwards: Rhylee West, Ben Cavarra

That's 40 names including the 2 likely additions.
Which could mean Fletcher Roberts and Lukas Webb going from the senior list along with the 3 retired players and Rorke Smith from the rookie list and Ryan Garder not retained. Although we could de-list and re-draft one or more of them

If I've missed anyone, please let me know

[Hotdog60]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Kinda off topic but I can't see Easton being captain next year and is out of contract 2020.
He could be under the pump next year and could face time in the VFL if his form line doesn't improve.
Would we be hard and cut him at 31 to free up a spot?
On the other hand the freedom without captaincy may help get some form back.

[GVGjr]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Kinda off topic but I can't see Easton being captain next year and is out of contract 2020.
He could be under the pump next year and could face time in the VFL if his form line doesn't improve.
Would we be hard and cut him at 31 to free up a spot?
On the other hand the freedom without captaincy may help get some form back.

There is no chance he will be cut and if I were him I'd do my best to hold onto the captaincy.
There were more below average games than above this year and with Keath coming into the back half it lessens the need to play him as a taller defender.