2022 Draft Watch

[Grantysghost]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

The Davey's have nominated Essendon no surprise.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

The Davies have nominated Essendon no surprise.

Must of got their demands met. Now to bid on Junior & Munkara!

[GVGjr]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

Just on the best available - I guess we would have some sort of list and cross them off as the picks go through. When it comes to our pick, surely if there are a couple of players within the ball park, ie, around 10, 11, 12, 13 - we switch to needs. Picking the best players is hard when you have ranked them in some way.

We need good players above all else. For instance, why pick Busslinger just because he is is 196cm tall if we think he doesn't play to his potential? And if we have rated a couple of others ahead of him. I'd only be prepared to consider doing that with the 3rd pick this year.

[GVGjr]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

Must of got their demands met. Now to bid on Junior & Munkara!

We should consider doing that but if Essendon are smart and Dodoro is he will have a contingency to trade pick 22.

[Grantysghost]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

We need good players above all else. For instance, why pick Busslinger just because he is is 196cm tall if we think he doesn't play to his potential? And if we have rated a couple of others ahead of him. I'd only be prepared to consider doing that with the 3rd pick this year.

Totally on board with that G.

There's so many good players we simply can't afford to overlook them early.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

We should consider doing that but if Essendon are smart and Dodoro is he will have a contingency to trade pick 22.

We future trade our Second (tied to Brisbane) for Pick 31.

Pick 31 & 39 worth way more than Pick 22.

Now have 11, 21 & 22


Or

Trade Future GWS Third (see below) & Pick 69 to North for Pick 43 (only really a slight downgrade in reality)

Trade Future First & 4th x 2, plus 21 & 43 to GWS. GWS get 22 off Essendon (with 31 & 43), 21 and F1 off us. We get 15 & 18 off GWS.

GWS get Picks 1, 12, 19, 21 & 22 (2 x 4ths in, a 3rd out)
Dogs get Picks 11, 15 & 18, 39 (picks out)
Essendon get Davey and extra points for another late pick to take his twin (essentially two FS for the price of one)



Then Dogs trade Picks 11, 39 & F2 to Sydney for Picks 14 & 17.

Dogs now with Picks 14, 15, 17 & 18. With a F1 & F4 still in our pocket.

One can dream right?

[Grantysghost]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

We future trade our Second (tied to Brisbane) for Pick 31.

Pick 31 & 43 worth way more than Pick 22.

Now have 11, 21 & 22


Or

Trade Future GWS Third (see below) & Pick 69 to North for Pick 43 (only really a slight downgrade in reality)

Trade Future First & 4th plus 21 & 43 to GWS. GWS get 22 off Essendon (with 31 & 43), 21 and F1 off us. We get 15 & 18 off GWS.

GWS get Picks 1, 12, 19, 21 & 22
Dogs get Picks 11, 15 & 18, 39 and F3



Then Dogs trade Picks 11, 39 & F2 to Sydney for Picks 14 & 17.

Dogs now with Picks 14, 15, 17 & 18. With a F1 & F4 still in our pocket.

One can dream right?

Love that first scenario.

3 of this crop under 25 would be very handy.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

Real limited knowledge but after looking into the draft a little, here's what I've observed;

There are some good options out there - glad we have a couple of early picks.

Busslinger looks OK but I wouldn't entertain our first on him. Different players/positions, but if we're going tall I'd prefer Jefferson who moves well.

Weddle would suit our style of play, but not sure we need his type. Could he play on the wing? I like his dash.

George is enticing if we are prepared to wait / confident he can come back OK. We could do with his type, we're really only covered for talls in the forward half.

I don't mind the trio of Clarke, Jones and Konstanty but not at our first. I wish we had another mid 20s pick as one of them would be good here. From this bunch, I like Clarke's intensity/crumbing ability and Jones' pace/steadiness the most.

The 4 of Phillipou, Mackenzie, Hewett and Hotton appeal. Any of these at our first would seem a good choice.

Order of preference:
- Phillipou
- Hewett
- Mackenzie
- Hotton
- George
- Clarke
- Jones
- Weddle
- Konstanty
- Jefferson
- Busslinger

Note: above is based on what may be available at our picks.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

Another version of a Dogs/GWS/Essendon Picks Trade (where its made clear to Essendon they need to do a points trade of Davey Jr owing to high incoming bids well before Pick 22):


GWS To Dogs - Picks 15, 18, 19
GWS to Essendon - Picks 31 & 61

Dogs to GWS - Picks 11, 69 & F1 (Bris)
Dogs to Essendon - Picks 31 & 39 (1,164 Draft Points To Essendon =Pick 14 in Points) (for Pick 22 just 845 Draft Points)

Essendon to GWS - Pick 22


Essendon - Pick 31 (GWS), Pick 39 (Dogs) Pick 61 (GWS) =Pick 13 in Draft Points well upgraded from their Pick 22
Dogs - Picks 15, 18 & 19
GWS - Picks 11, 22, F1 (Bris)


(Dogs: 1. F1 (Bris) = Pick 18 --- 2. Pick 11 downgraded to Pick 15, but Pick 39 is upgraded into Pick 19)
(GWS: 1. Pick 18 = F1 (Bris) --- 2. Upgraded Pick 15 into Pick 11, for a slight downgraded of Pick 19 to 22 and Pick 31)


Why Essendon: net gain +342 Draft Points, =Pick 45 in extra points for Davey/s. Great points trade.

Why GWS: Upgrade into Pick 11, move a late first rounder this year into next year's draft. Picks 15, 18 and 19 into 11, 22 & F1. Big upgrade for them for the small cost of Pick 31

Why Dogs: Our First Rounder, Third Rounder and Dunkley turns into Picks 15, 18, 19 & 21 (Plus Future Upgrade of Third into 2nd). ** Only viable if the club considers players at Pick 11-15 are broadly considered roughly equal but the late First talent around 18 and 19 are worth getting this year.


List management In: Lobb, Jones, 15, 18, 19 & 21 (Future Upgrade into Second Round from Dunkley)
List management Out: Wallis, Cordy, Schache, Hunter, Dunkley, Butler, Martin, Pick 11, 30, 39, 69, Future 2nd, Future 3rd

Still holding 2023 Draft Picks Rounds 1, 2, 4 x 3
Salary Cap: Circa $1,000,000+ in not payments to Dunkley & Hunter, and small savings on paying draftee wages in lieu of what experienced players like Wallis & Schache would have been paid above base draftee wage. Ready to hit the Free Agent market next year, best available Ben McKay which would suit with Keath and Jones with limited time left.


So (after shuffling Picks 17, 20, 21 & 23) maybe four of say Jones/Allan (speedy winger), Konstanty/Clarke (pressure small forward), Hayes/Weddle/Busslinger (KPD for development with ageing KPDs) & George (forward with heaps of upside to slowly develop). With FOUR picks inside the Top 21, the best available and needs will in most likelihood mean that both 'best available' and 'needs' are delivered.

This is quite clearly an extreme example for discussion, but if you like the talent at the end of the first round and you want more if it this year, there's some scope to get active. If you think a Pick 11 kid is going to be a deadset gun and not to mess with, then we wouldn't trade it and could still look at the Essendon Pick 22 (with Pick 31 from GWS) and a GWS late First for the Brisbane Future First (adding a Future Second for Pick 31 (34 after bids on Ashcroft, Fletcher and Davey).

If the premiership window is open for 4-5 years as the news article was saying today, then getting the talent in this year and giving them an extra years development in the window is highly attractive. If a winger and small forward can break into the team sooner rather than later (owing to the vacancies) then that helps the 'best 22' sooner rather than later too.


Food for thought and debate if nothing else. Sit with the picks we have, or is it time to get busy?

[hujsh]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

I find it hard to judge the value of a trade like above since it's not clear how good the players available this year will be vs who we can get next year with that future first.

Very heavily depends on the recruiting team's judgement of talent this year vs next.

[Bornadog]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

I find it hard to judge the value of a trade like above since it's not clear how good the players available this year will be vs who we can get next year with that future first.

Very heavily depends on the recruiting team's judgement of talent this year vs next.

I don't see how the recruiters can judge next years draft. Those kids are currently what 16/17 year olds. We know that between 16/17 and 18/19 bodies change and ability to achieve the same level becomes harder. This is especially true for those players who either are tall now and can beat up on the little guys, or those that have a growth spurt and suddenly they can compete better.

I wouldn't be worrying about next year, we should be getting this years draft right.

[GVGjr]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

I don't see how the recruiters can judge next years draft. Those kids are currently what 16/17 year olds. We know that between 16/17 and 18/19 bodies change and ability to achieve the same level becomes harder. This is especially true for those players who either are tall now and can beat up on the little guys, or those that have a growth spurt and suddenly they can compete better.

I wouldn't be worrying about next year, we should be getting this years draft right.

They have a bit of data to work with plus a full year of footy completed.
They would be looking at the quality of the under aged players this year to determine the likely depth going forward.

[Bornadog]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

The Davey twins are set to follow in their father Alwyn's footsteps, nominating the Dons under the father-son rule.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

I find it hard to judge the value of a trade like above since it's not clear how good the players available this year will be vs who we can get next year with that future first.

Very heavily depends on the recruiting team's judgement of talent this year vs next.

We can flesh that out in the reverse...

Say Essendon want to get ahead of a bid on Davey is say the mid-late First Round.

They offer us their 2023 First Rounder, Second Rounder and Pick 22 - for- Our Pick 11, 39 and Future Lions First

Essendon then have: Picks 4, 11 and then match Davey Jr in the First Round (3 Firsts this year) while holding a First in 2023 tied to Brisbane (4 First Rounders to them)

Dogs then have this year: Picks 21, 22 & 69 - Next year 2 x Firsts (Dons & Dogs), 2 x Seconds and 3 x Fourths


ie. over two drafts (circa after shuffling)

Dogs out: Pick 11, 15-18 (BR) & 39
Dogs in: Pick 7, 22, 30
(effectively it's the upgrade of our 2022 First (Pick 11) into the value of their 2023 First (c. Pick 7) )

*Assuming finishing 8th again, and them 7th last for illustrative purposes:

2023 Dogs: Picks 7, 11, 30, 38, 66, 68 & 70

[GVGjr]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

Thanks TBB.

At a quick glance I'd probably go with
1st pick
Phillipou
Allan
MacKenzie
Jefferson
Busslinger
Weddle


2nd Pick
George
Weddle
Jones
J.Ryan
Barnett
Gruzewski

3rd Pick
J.Ryan
Barnett
Gruzewski
Clarke
Van Es
Macdonald
Marshall