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Possible Retirements, Main List: Duryea (more likely), Keath (hopefully he can play himself into another season)
Need Strong Season, Main Listed Players: Crozier, Hannan, Bedendo, O'Brien, Vandermeer, Arthur Jones
Rookie Elevation Needed Beyond 2023: R. Smith, Scott & McNeil all have hit three seasons trigger next year. My understanding is that as they were selected after the 2020 season there’s no extra year added to the three year rule where there was dispensation for rookies who lost a season in 2020. Such as Sweet & Khamis got for losing a season.
Possible F/S: Croft, although not close to a certainty from what is publicly available
Free Agents: Liberatore (unrestricted), McLean, Roarke & Williams (all restricted) - I'm thinking right now we'd want to sign them all. Plus if we can drag in a decent Free Agent, we would lose the compo for them.
Current ND Picks (6): First Round, First Round, Second Round, Fourth Round, Fourth Round, Fourth Round
Salary Cap/TPP: Plenty of cash available to use
Current Rookie List Size: Six
Rookie List Considerations:
With the likely elevations of two of Roarke, Scott &/or McNeil, the list may need to be re-balanced back to FOUR spots to find the extra two spots back on the Main List. If McNeil gets elevated too, that's going to put even more pressure on delistings. Unless one gets delisted with the view to be re-rookie listed?
If it occurs to elevate two of Roarke, Scott &/or McNeil, then we need only need to probably look at the re-balancing of the list to accomodate that without too much hassle or complication.
Raak has another year as a Cat B so there's no pressure to keep him or cut him for any other reason other than performance. Leaving McComb and Baker if they get another year extended. If the RL goes back to FOUR spots. That leaves leaves two Rookie Draft/SSP selections at the end of 2023.
List Spots:
So let's assume the rookie upgrades are just rebalancing. If we were to look at TWO of trades (using a first rounder), ONE free agent, using THREE ND picks being say the First and Second rounder, a later pick, then we need to find six spots (assuming no Father/Sons coming onto the main list except for the last pick). Basically, the aggressive three player trade strategy of 2019 but getting the third trade target this time (having narrowly missed Jack Martin then, but got Bruce and Keath).
(Even using three picks and only two trades/free agents in the number needed is FIVE)
So then we need to find FIVE players to move on. If Duryea retires as an easy one, that leaves FOUR players to move on after that. Crozier and Bedendo would have to be wanting to state their case for retention with some very good footy in 2023 (Bedendo then in that unlucky class like Fergus Greene). Otherwise, they could be in line to move on.
From there it gets difficult looking for another two MAIN LISTED players, particularly if Keath stays fit and looks good for another season. Clearly we have some longer term projects in Khamis, Sweet, A. Jones, Cleary. I'm not sure we'd want to delist any with the gamble to rookie lis them. I'd imagine Arthur Jones would be the one if one was needed.
A couple of those Fourth Rounders might be traded out on the assumption that we don't need the Draft Points for a Father/Son or NGA. Either for players, or maybe trying to package them up for a Draft Points trade to move up the order if that next pick is a 'live' pick.
Initial View:
Right now, if we need to elevate two rookies based on performance at the end of next year from either Roarke, Scott and McNeil then things are going to be very difficult. Especially as mentioned if Keath performs well and gets another season out of his body.
With the picks and cash on hand, we need to be active in trying to get a few good players next year (mids and a KPD) and using a couple of good draft picks. That Croft doesn't appear to be a certainty to need Main List drafting (if at all) takes some pressure off list spots right now.
Coming up with FIVE to SIX main listed players to move on looks a very, very difficult right now. Duryea, Keath is his body fails/performance is poor, Crozier, Bedendo and Hannan maybe. Arthur Jones not having debuted comes into conversation just because he's not played senior footy yet.
Beyond that Vandermeer is he wanted a trade out if his games dropped off could be covered, surely Tim O'Brien isn't in the gun after two seasons, Arthur Jones perhaps delisted and a view to rookie list him (if so desired). Unless trade request out arise, Free Agents walk out or another player's body breaks down such that they retire somewhat unexpectedly.
Or we make the decision to not elevate two of Roarke, Scott &/or McNeil to save a main list spot.
This year seemed simple enough with calls on Martin, Wallis, Parker and Butler with a few trades/free agent. 2023 looks a fair bit harder if we aim to bring in some talented players with our strong draft hand and strong salary cap position, AND look at multiple rookie upgrades.
A general strategy that could work, is say THREE players via a Free Agent, a First Round Trade and a Second Round Trade. Then use a First Rounder, and hope to package up a couple of Fourth Rounders into a Third Rounder. Thereby only using two live picks and rookie upgrades to cover off the minimum THREE list changes. But two picks in a so-called 'strong draft' doesn't seem the best idea on the other hand.
The more I look at options initially, the more I think Sam Power just needs to make some hard calls in 10 months time. At least FIVE or likely SIX players need to outbound from the MAIN LIST when trying to balance retention, rookie upgrades and trading for players.
For the sake of conversation my initial SIX, subject to constant change, (with two rookie upgrades, three players traded/FA in, and three 'live' picks used): Duryea (ret), Crozier (del), Bedendo (del), A. Jones (del), and one or two of Hannan/O'Brien/Vandermeer - hoping that Keath has a ripping 2023 and performance demands he get another season in 2024, and all Main Listed Free Agents re-sign for 2024 and beyond. Obviously, with two Rookie Draft picks we could look to rookie listing any of the delisted players should we still want them despite the Main List squeeze.
The two player trade-in and three pick strategy, with two rookie upgrades makes for FIVE changes: Duryea (ret), Crozier (del), Bedendo (del), A. Jones (del), with one of Hannan/O'Brien/Vandermeer/Keath if retired. But i'd like to think with the picks and cash on hand, three player traded in would be the best move if we could secure three quality players and have a decent presence in a stronger draft.
Some very unlucky guys on the list if we upgrade two rookies. Or it could be a choice between upgrading say Roarke or keeping Hannan? Upgrading McNeil or keeping VDM?
Thoughts?
If VDM, Roarke, Scott and Hannan are say all now 'wingers', do we need them all on the main list?
With Weightman, Clarke, West, JJ and Garcia. Is McNeil a 'must sign' for another smaller forward?
Who are you FIVE or SIX players most likely to move on?
Which rookies should be upgraded?
Would you prefer to cut shallow and keep depth players and not pursue good trades/free agents?
Who do you think might request a trade out for more opportunity? Who would you let go without much of a fight?
Need Strong Season, Main Listed Players: Crozier, Hannan, Bedendo, O'Brien, Vandermeer, Arthur Jones
Rookie Elevation Needed Beyond 2023: R. Smith, Scott & McNeil all have hit three seasons trigger next year. My understanding is that as they were selected after the 2020 season there’s no extra year added to the three year rule where there was dispensation for rookies who lost a season in 2020. Such as Sweet & Khamis got for losing a season.
Possible F/S: Croft, although not close to a certainty from what is publicly available
Free Agents: Liberatore (unrestricted), McLean, Roarke & Williams (all restricted) - I'm thinking right now we'd want to sign them all. Plus if we can drag in a decent Free Agent, we would lose the compo for them.
Current ND Picks (6): First Round, First Round, Second Round, Fourth Round, Fourth Round, Fourth Round
Salary Cap/TPP: Plenty of cash available to use
Current Rookie List Size: Six
Rookie List Considerations:
With the likely elevations of two of Roarke, Scott &/or McNeil, the list may need to be re-balanced back to FOUR spots to find the extra two spots back on the Main List. If McNeil gets elevated too, that's going to put even more pressure on delistings. Unless one gets delisted with the view to be re-rookie listed?
If it occurs to elevate two of Roarke, Scott &/or McNeil, then we need only need to probably look at the re-balancing of the list to accomodate that without too much hassle or complication.
Raak has another year as a Cat B so there's no pressure to keep him or cut him for any other reason other than performance. Leaving McComb and Baker if they get another year extended. If the RL goes back to FOUR spots. That leaves leaves two Rookie Draft/SSP selections at the end of 2023.
List Spots:
So let's assume the rookie upgrades are just rebalancing. If we were to look at TWO of trades (using a first rounder), ONE free agent, using THREE ND picks being say the First and Second rounder, a later pick, then we need to find six spots (assuming no Father/Sons coming onto the main list except for the last pick). Basically, the aggressive three player trade strategy of 2019 but getting the third trade target this time (having narrowly missed Jack Martin then, but got Bruce and Keath).
(Even using three picks and only two trades/free agents in the number needed is FIVE)
So then we need to find FIVE players to move on. If Duryea retires as an easy one, that leaves FOUR players to move on after that. Crozier and Bedendo would have to be wanting to state their case for retention with some very good footy in 2023 (Bedendo then in that unlucky class like Fergus Greene). Otherwise, they could be in line to move on.
From there it gets difficult looking for another two MAIN LISTED players, particularly if Keath stays fit and looks good for another season. Clearly we have some longer term projects in Khamis, Sweet, A. Jones, Cleary. I'm not sure we'd want to delist any with the gamble to rookie lis them. I'd imagine Arthur Jones would be the one if one was needed.
A couple of those Fourth Rounders might be traded out on the assumption that we don't need the Draft Points for a Father/Son or NGA. Either for players, or maybe trying to package them up for a Draft Points trade to move up the order if that next pick is a 'live' pick.
Initial View:
Right now, if we need to elevate two rookies based on performance at the end of next year from either Roarke, Scott and McNeil then things are going to be very difficult. Especially as mentioned if Keath performs well and gets another season out of his body.
With the picks and cash on hand, we need to be active in trying to get a few good players next year (mids and a KPD) and using a couple of good draft picks. That Croft doesn't appear to be a certainty to need Main List drafting (if at all) takes some pressure off list spots right now.
Coming up with FIVE to SIX main listed players to move on looks a very, very difficult right now. Duryea, Keath is his body fails/performance is poor, Crozier, Bedendo and Hannan maybe. Arthur Jones not having debuted comes into conversation just because he's not played senior footy yet.
Beyond that Vandermeer is he wanted a trade out if his games dropped off could be covered, surely Tim O'Brien isn't in the gun after two seasons, Arthur Jones perhaps delisted and a view to rookie list him (if so desired). Unless trade request out arise, Free Agents walk out or another player's body breaks down such that they retire somewhat unexpectedly.
Or we make the decision to not elevate two of Roarke, Scott &/or McNeil to save a main list spot.
This year seemed simple enough with calls on Martin, Wallis, Parker and Butler with a few trades/free agent. 2023 looks a fair bit harder if we aim to bring in some talented players with our strong draft hand and strong salary cap position, AND look at multiple rookie upgrades.
A general strategy that could work, is say THREE players via a Free Agent, a First Round Trade and a Second Round Trade. Then use a First Rounder, and hope to package up a couple of Fourth Rounders into a Third Rounder. Thereby only using two live picks and rookie upgrades to cover off the minimum THREE list changes. But two picks in a so-called 'strong draft' doesn't seem the best idea on the other hand.
The more I look at options initially, the more I think Sam Power just needs to make some hard calls in 10 months time. At least FIVE or likely SIX players need to outbound from the MAIN LIST when trying to balance retention, rookie upgrades and trading for players.
For the sake of conversation my initial SIX, subject to constant change, (with two rookie upgrades, three players traded/FA in, and three 'live' picks used): Duryea (ret), Crozier (del), Bedendo (del), A. Jones (del), and one or two of Hannan/O'Brien/Vandermeer - hoping that Keath has a ripping 2023 and performance demands he get another season in 2024, and all Main Listed Free Agents re-sign for 2024 and beyond. Obviously, with two Rookie Draft picks we could look to rookie listing any of the delisted players should we still want them despite the Main List squeeze.
The two player trade-in and three pick strategy, with two rookie upgrades makes for FIVE changes: Duryea (ret), Crozier (del), Bedendo (del), A. Jones (del), with one of Hannan/O'Brien/Vandermeer/Keath if retired. But i'd like to think with the picks and cash on hand, three player traded in would be the best move if we could secure three quality players and have a decent presence in a stronger draft.
Some very unlucky guys on the list if we upgrade two rookies. Or it could be a choice between upgrading say Roarke or keeping Hannan? Upgrading McNeil or keeping VDM?
Thoughts?
If VDM, Roarke, Scott and Hannan are say all now 'wingers', do we need them all on the main list?
With Weightman, Clarke, West, JJ and Garcia. Is McNeil a 'must sign' for another smaller forward?
Who are you FIVE or SIX players most likely to move on?
Which rookies should be upgraded?
Would you prefer to cut shallow and keep depth players and not pursue good trades/free agents?
Who do you think might request a trade out for more opportunity? Who would you let go without much of a fight?
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