Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

[Dry Rot]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

What's Hogan like? FF or CHF? What current player is he similar to?

[LongWait]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

I'd be trying to package pick 5 + 6 for Martin, Hogan and Anderson.

Perhaps we need to add a second round pick or a player.

If that can't be done, pick 6 + a Markovic/Sherman type is as far as we should go.

MD1, MD2 and Anderson could be a great outcome - we may be able to get a second or third round pick also if we are really fortunate.

I'm not sure that a player or extra draft picks will interest GWS too much. GWS have both salary cap and player list issues and there is speculation that their preference is to only have 3 draft picks (the minimum allowed) this year and that they will ensure that they get three very high picks and/or picks which don't have to be used this year (eg the Geelong compo pick they haven't yet activated.)

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

MD1, MD2 and Anderson could be a great outcome - we may be able to get a second or third round pick also if we are really fortunate.

I'm not sure that a player or extra draft picks will interest GWS too much. GWS have both salary cap and player list issues and there is speculation that their preference is to only have 3 draft picks (the minimum allowed) this year and that they will ensure that they get three very high picks and/or picks which don't have to be used this year (eg the Geelong compo pick they haven't yet activated.)

Am I right in saying that the pivotal pieces required to play out to enable this scenario to become feasible (presuming also the Dogs want this deal are:
* Melbourne being forced to use pick 3 on Viney, and then deciding that they are not willing to use pick 4 in the mini draft.
* and GC no willing to use pick 2 in the mini draft.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

Am I right in saying that the pivotal pieces required to play out to enable this scenario to become feasible (presuming also the Dogs want this deal are:
* Melbourne being forced to use pick 3 on Viney, and then deciding that they are not willing to use pick 4 in the mini draft.
* and GC no willing to use pick 2 in the mini draft.

Pretty much.

It seems likely Viney will be forced at #3, meaning we have to combat GCS at #2 and MELB at #4. I'm not convinced that GCS will make a bid, I think they'll be happy with Toumpas at #2.

This is why I think we should package picks #5 and #6 for MD1, MD2 and Jed Anderson. Having picks #1, #5 & #6 is more attractive than having picks #1 & #4 from a GWS perspective.

The ideal scenario for them is probably to make Melbourne use #4 for a MD and us to use #5. This is where the skill of negociation will come into play. We have to be prepared to lose Martin in order to achieve the best outcome IMO.

[anfo27]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

Am I right in saying that the pivotal pieces required to play out to enable this scenario to become feasible (presuming also the Dogs want this deal are:
* Melbourne being forced to use pick 3 on Viney, and then deciding that they are not willing to use pick 4 in the mini draft.
* and GC no willing to use pick 2 in the mini draft.

Seems spot on for me.

[LostDoggy]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

We need to pray that GC force Melbourne to use pick 3 for Viney!

[LongWait]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

Pretty much.

It seems likely Viney will be forced at #3, meaning we have to combat GCS at #2 and MELB at #4. I'm not convinced that GCS will make a bid, I think they'll be happy with Toumpas at #2.

This is why I think we should package picks #5 and #6 for MD1, MD2 and Jed Anderson. Having picks #1, #5 & #6 is more attractive than having picks #1 & #4 from a GWS perspective.

The ideal scenario for them is probably to make Melbourne use #4 for a MD and us to use #5. This is where the skill of negociation will come into play. We have to be prepared to lose Martin in order to achieve the best outcome IMO.

I think that #5 and #6 for MD 1 and 2 and Anderson is not far fetched, particularly if GC bids for Viney.

If MD1 is worth around pick 5 or 6 this year, and MD2 is worth a late top 10 (say pick 9 or 10 this year) and Anderson is a late first round pick (say around pick 18)....then the above deal is roughly equivalent to GWS trading pick 18 (Anderson) for a 4 pick upgrade from 10 to 6. Given they may only want to use 3 picks this year they may go for it.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

I think that #5 and #6 for MD 1 and 2 and Anderson is not far fetched, particularly if GC bids for Viney.

If MD1 is worth around pick 5 or 6 this year, and MD2 is worth a late top 10 (say pick 9 or 10 this year) and Anderson is a late first round pick (say around pick 18)....then the above deal is roughly equivalent to GWS trading pick 18 (Anderson) for a 4 pick upgrade from 10 to 6. Given they may only want to use 3 picks this year they may go for it.

I agree.

Looking at it from another angle, we don't appear to be at all interested in Hogan though so that would put a line through the above trade.

Additionally, the club may (probably) still wants a pick in the top ten -- which is understandable. It's a big risk taking both Martin & Hogan, and it probably isn't easy to 'sell'. It would, however, be my most preferred option.

Either way, hopefully the deal(s) aren't a deadline-day thing.

[azabob]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

I agree.

Looking at it from another angle, we don't appear to be at all interested in Hogan though so that would put a line through the above trade.

Additionally, the club may (probably) still wants a pick in the top ten -- which is understandable. It's a big risk taking both Martin & Hogan, and it probably isn't easy to 'sell'. It would, however, be my most preferred option.

Either way, hopefully the deal(s) aren't a deadline-day thing.

I assume you are going on the lack of media speculation we are not interested in Hogan? Taking of both Martin and Hogan is that your preferred option as you don't have the trust in our recruiting team to make the right choice in this years draft?

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

I assume you are going on the lack of media speculation we are not interested in Hogan? Taking of both Martin and Hogan is that your preferred option as you don't have the trust in our recruiting team to make the right choice in this years draft?

From what I've gathered, we haven't shown interest in Hogan. That might be different behind closed doors, or it may change as the process develops.

I think a Martin/Hogan/Anderson combo is better than anything we can possibly get otherwise. I would be pretty happy with Martin/Anderson/Garlett too, though.

It's not so much about a lack of trust in our recruiting team as it is grabbing hold of an opportunity. Hogan tested well the other day and he's a seriously big kid - in terms of a KPF, he's what we need. I still think Jones has the ability to make it, but he's no certainty, and I don't rate Cordy. That's about all we've got at the moment.

We'll still finish low enough next year to pick up another potential a-grade midfielder, too.

[LongWait]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

I agree.

Looking at it from another angle, we don't appear to be at all interested in Hogan though so that would put a line through the above trade.

Additionally, the club may (probably) still wants a pick in the top ten -- which is understandable. It's a big risk taking both Martin & Hogan, and it probably isn't easy to 'sell'. It would, however, be my most preferred option.

Either way, hopefully the deal(s) aren't a deadline-day thing.

* Father/Son bidding is concluded by 10:30am on Monday 9 October and Trade Period begins immediately after that.

* Trading for the Mini Draft picks needs to be finalised at 5:00pm on Tuesday 23 October.

* Trade Period ends at 2:00pm on Friday 26 October.

* Mini Draft picks are chosen by successful bidders at 2:10pm on Friday 26 October.

So we know where we stand with F/S picks and the draft order before trading begins. We have the Thusday and Friday in the final week of trading where we will know for sure which, if any Mini Draft picks we have. We may informally know well before then. We select any Mini Draft picks we have after Trade Period ends.

All seems logical, although I'd prefer a couple of more days notice of who gets what Mini Draft picks.

[mjp]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

What's Hogan like? FF or CHF? What current player is he similar to?

Walker.

[Dry Rot]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

Walker.

Thanks. I like the sound of that.

Do you rate him?

[mjp]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

We need to pray that GC force Melbourne to use pick 3 for Viney!

Why wouldn't they? GC know that Melbourne will take him regardless - they can posture all they like but there is no way they will overlook the best father-son candidate they have every had - so why not make them use an early pick... Melbourne can still offer pick 4 for the MD but I don't see this happening - they want players NOW.

Are we all assuming Hogan is clearly ahead of Kelly for MD2?

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Re: Dogs Keen on Jack Martin in Mini Draft

mjp, what would be your preferred outcome/proposed offers?