BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

[G-Mo77]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Absolutely, this often gets lost.

Looking at our age profile any decent cheap trades to help with a position of need would be excellent for us. Lloyd/Duryea/Crozier types>

If Papley is available we should be right into him, and we could ask the question about Ronke who is going ok in the NEAFL too.

It's a tough balance. I don't want to fill the list with recycled but then again we can't afford to get younger. We need to target mature state level players, Cavara was a good start in 2018 so hopefully he can get a decent run at it and move into senior level. I'm for moving our high end pick to bring in ready made talent, I was last season as well but Smith is a perfect fit and seems mature in body and ability.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

I've had another look at avenues to manoeuvre our first rounder next year in the event JUH goes really high, per the AFEL article.

Geelong.

Say they accept WCE's current 15 & 26 (anything else) as a trade for Tim Kelly. Geelong might be open to play the long game on maxing that trade out. That is, they use 15 & 26 as they want trade/draft, but say they make the GF, they trade their pick 17/18 to us in exchange of first round picks next year. Realistically, they should be high again (pick 17/18) and we should be lower than we want to be, say pick 6-7.

So the trade is pick 17/18 this year, circa worst case pick 17/18 next year - for - circa pick 6/7 next year. That works for us draft points wise, about a minimum of 1,000 points towards locking up JUH, and gets us into the first round again (all be it late) this year. That works for Geelong too, to pick up a potential top 10 gun for just two end of first round selections. We come ahead on multiple picks and draft points (which is the point), and they come ahead with a juicy pick next year way ahead of their finishing position expectation (which is the point and why the trade happens).

So that's lines on Adelaide, Brisbane & Geelong as potential trade partners so far in the thread re our first rounder next year.

As in the longer post, that's a draft pick hand of picks 4, 18, 22, 30 (maybe Port), 40 & 76 and lots of salary cap. That's Sam Power able to lock away draft business for 2020 and aggressively pursue trade options this year with picks and money to get things done.

Any other ideas of how to get maximum return out of moving our first rounder next year around?

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

GWS.

They have Thomas Green, who some (such as ESPN) rate at pick 2. That's 2,000 draft points required. But they have Essendon's pick, likely pick 10. Could JMAC be motivated to do a nearly mirrored swap over two years with us?

So they give us pick 10 2019, first rounder (16-18) 2020.

So we give them pick 22 2019, first rounder (6-7) 2020.


Them: In: Circa Pick 6-7, pick 22 (about 2,500 points) - They get the academy boy Thomas with pretty much their normal first rounder and our former pick 22, and the benefit of another high pick well above the finishing spot in 2020.

Us: In: Pick 10, circa pick 16-18 (about 2,400 points) - We get a huge upgrade from 22 into 10. We get points for our academy boy JUH next year.

Pretty much giving each other a 10-12 upgrade into the top 10, over sequential years so we can both take advantage of the system of getting top end talent on the cheap.

Leaves us: 4, 10, 30 (maybe Port), 40 & 76 and heaps of salary cap. JUH & Macca locked away and guaranteed next year. Pending the review.

[GVGjr]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Fantastic suggestions as always BT

I'm wondering if we should take a different approach by using a lot of the currency we have, both draft picks and salary cap, on acquiring established or emerging players. This could fast track and compliment our player development and hopefully make us a more competitive team. I think we have enough emerging players on our list but adding some more experience and hopefully class around them could be a huge benefit for them.

[Twodogs]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Fantastic suggestions as always BT

I'm wondering if we should take a different approach by using a lot of the currency we have, both draft picks and salary cap, on acquiring established or emerging players. This could fast track and compliment our player development and hopefully make us a more competitive team. I think we have enough emerging players on our list but adding some more experience and hopefully class around them could be a huge benefit for them.

Especially class. If we can get some outside speed and players who can hit targets by foot that will improve us no end.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Fantastic suggestions as always BT

I'm wondering if we should take a different approach by using a lot of the currency we have, both draft picks and salary cap, on acquiring established or emerging players. This could fast track and compliment our player development and hopefully make us a more competitive team. I think we have enough emerging players on our list but adding some more experience and hopefully class around them could be a huge benefit for them.

Looking at the ladder/draft pick projections, we look like securing picks 40 & 41 with our bonus third rounders. I'd hope Port with Mead & Burgoyne look at a draft points trade with us with their pick 30. That takes them to pick 23 worth of draft points.

Then looking at ways to maximise the benefit of JUH and the system. Be it pick 10 via GWS or picks 18-20 with Geelong, Adelaide & Brisbane.

If we could improve our hand early on in the trade period, then we are set to get aggressive on player trades. Picks 6, 10/18-20, 24, 30 & 40 are all tradable and I'd trade aggressive this year. Next year it's likely busy with JUH & MacPherson - more kids. So this is the year I think to trade aggressive and cut our list hard as per my long July update. Names in the media like Tomlinson, Day, Martin (if not the alleged $700,000 asking price), Papley & The Hill Brothers all interest me. I'm sure there's a lot more names yet to float out in the media. I'd like us to rebuild our KPD stock (ie Tomlinson, Day), add some outside class (ie The Hills, Martin) and bring in a high quality small/mid forward (ie Papley). The rumours/names above would do that. If it meant trading out top ten picks and multiple top 30 picks, I'm prepared to do it. If the players are of a quality to soak up a lot of the circa $1.6M, then I'm prepared do that too.

First thing to do is try to seek out a draft points trade for two good 3rd rounders, and the best possible trade on our 2020 first rounder swap. Then go shopping.

[Twodogs]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Looking at the ladder/draft pick projections, we look like securing picks 40 & 41 with our bonus third rounders. I'd hope Port with Mead & Burgoyne look at a draft points trade with us with their pick 30. That takes them to pick 23 worth of draft points.

Then looking at ways to maximise the benefit of JUH and the system. Be it pick 10 via GWS or picks 18-20 with Geelong, Adelaide & Brisbane.

If we could improve our hand early on in the trade period, then we are set to get aggressive on player trades. Picks 6, 10/18-20, 24, 30 & 40 are all tradable and I'd trade aggressive this year. Next year it's likely busy with JUH & MacPherson - more kids. So this is the year I think to trade aggressive and cut our list hard as per my long July update. Names in the media like Tomlinson, Day, Martin (if not the alleged $700,000 asking price), Papley & The Hill Brothers all interest me. I'm sure there's a lot more names yet to float out in the media. I'd like us to rebuild our KPD stock (ie Tomlinson, Day), add some outside class (ie The Hills, Martin) and bring in a high quality small/mid forward (ie Papley). The rumours/names above would do that. If it meant trading out top ten picks and multiple top 30 picks, I'm prepared to do it. If the players are of a quality to soak up a lot of the circa $1.6M, then I'm prepared do that too.

First thing to do is try to seek out a draft points trade for two good 3rd rounders, and the best possible trade on our 2020 first rounder swap. Then go shopping.

Which Burgoyne is he the son of, Peter or Shaun?

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Which Burgoyne is he the son of, Peter or Shaun?

Peter.

[Twodogs]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Peter.

Cheers BT. Just following up Shaun's kids' bloodlines they are pretty good-Burgoyne on one side and Greg Phillips (via Greg's daughter and Erin's sister Amy) on the other. That's some solid Port Adelaide bloodlines right there.

[Mofra]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Looking at the ladder/draft pick projections, we look like securing picks 40 & 41 with our bonus third rounders. I'd hope Port with Mead & Burgoyne look at a draft points trade with us with their pick 30. That takes them to pick 23 worth of draft points.

Sam Gray hasn't signed with them yet, OOC this year.

Has genuine goal sense and should have 3 good years left. Would improve us immediately and allow our kids time to develop, first round pick this year in our range will either be Brodie Kemp or more likely one of the forward / mid smart skilled types we desperately need.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Further analysis of Port's current draft hand shows them with 4 X fourth rounders (circa only 370 draft points), after picks 12 & 30. Write ups on their father/son Mead shows him by (at least) draft central as now going top 20 after the champs. So I think they now especially need to find extra draft points just to easily lock him up, plus Burgoyne may need points too. Surely our picks 41 & 42 for Port's pick 30 is a no brainer for both clubs. The trade nets Port an extra 170 draft points, we take our bonus third rounders to move into the top 30. We are actually the best placed club to work with them if they want a good draft points trade.

With the JUH options above regarding our first rounder 2020, this is a summary of all the above posts of the best possible/theoretical avenues I can find to improve our draft picks and then look for player trades with (with pick 30 from Port):

GWS: 6, 10 (no 24), 30, 40 & 78 - 2020 swap first rounders (enough points for JUH & MacPherson)
Geelong: 6, 18, 24, 30, 40 & 78 - 2020 swap first rounders (enough points for JUH & MacPherson)
Adelaide: 6, 19, 24, 30, 40 & 78 - 2020 swap first rounders (enough points for JUH & MacPherson)
Brisbane: 6, 20, 24, 30, 40 & 78 - 2020 swap first rounders (enough points for JUH & MacPherson)


Looking at names in the public space (excluding free agents), we'd have trade currency to at least compete on multiple trades including; Martin, Papley, Hill, Ryder, Keath etc, etc.

[Axe Man]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Are your over-30s over the hill? Who plays on, who goes

WESTERN BULLDOGS
Luke Beveridge has fielded the second-youngest team on average this season, with only Gold Coast younger. There is growing optimism around the latest crop of Bulldogs, but the likes of Tim English, Aaron Naughton and Bailey Smith need on-field guidance to help continue their development.

Tory Dickson
The veteran forward is out of contract and turns 32 in Grand Final week. Despite playing 11 games in 2019 and putting together a solid month since an AFL recall from Footscray, it might be time to thank him for his services. GO

Dale Morris
Suffering two knee injuries in two seasons at 36 years old should make it an easy decision – but this is Dale Morris. He's got through two VFL games and flagged his intent to go on next year. The Bulldogs would benefit from his presence. STAY

Liam Picken
The 32-year-old called time on his 198-game career earlier this season due to ongoing concussion symptoms. He played every game in 2017 before a serious head injury in the 2018 JLT Community Series. GO

Matt Suckling
There is still value in Suckling's penetrating left foot. The defender celebrates his 31st birthday in two weeks and should sign another one-year contract. STAY

Easton Wood
The Bulldogs captain isn't going anywhere. He will be 30 in September, hasn't missed a game in 2019 and is contracted until the end of the 2020 season. STAY - Paul Bastin

[Mofra]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Fair assessment, I imagine that's how it pans out.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

I've spent the last month on what an 'all in' player trading strategy could look like this year. I've tried to include historical trades as examples of recent player values and included draft point trading analysis. It feels a little like a minor thesis (or manifesto), but if you go step by step slowly it fleshes out this type of strategy. I'm not necessarily saying this will happen or even if the club has this mindset, but it's a rough outline of what an aggressive player trading period might look like. It goes without saying it's very light on for draft selections.

Assuming we head into the trade period with Draft Picks 8, 26, 41 (St), 44, 46 (Haw) & 80.

We begin our period with Draft Pick (draft points) Trading To Start:

(1) Port Adelaide's picks 9 & 27 - Our picks 8, 40 & 44 (this is a good win-win draft points trade with Port having father/sons Mead & Burgoyne, this nets them an extra (& generous) 160 points for them. Draft central have Mead going at Pick 14, so they are likely motivated to find a good deal with their pick 27.

(2) Brisbane's Picks 16 & 19 - Our Pick 9 & 45 - So the main offer is a late first rounder and early second rounder for a top 10 pick, and pick 45. I don't think they need mid table picks compared to pick 9. If they really like someone at this mark, it is conceivable they trade, or they might like another top 10 pick to grab another ready made gun which is their style recently. Draft points are not overly relevant here as they get a top 10 pick which isn't factored in. It seems about right to my thinking.

(3) GWS Picks 12 & 14 (2,429 points) used on Green (ESPN have him at pick 2, or 2,000 points after the discount if he stays at their prediction)
Our Picks 19, 26 & 27 (2,380 points) - That puts the dogs ahead this year by 50 points. But we also exchange 2020 first rounders, say pick 10 into pick 14 (say 230 points) - Dogs also get 2020 fourth rounder back (circa 60 draft points)
- GWS end up about 120 draft points up overall (equivalent to a mid 4th rounder). Win-win for both clubs getting top academy kids and still getting good first rounders across the same two year window.
Why GWS do it? If they keep their picks, after using points on Green their next is pick 40. If they do this trade with us, their next pick is 46, but then they get first round upgrade next year which is worth way, way more. Both clubs win.


So now we have about $1.6M plus Draft Picks: 12, 14, 16, 81. This does not include any picks incoming for player/s request trade out. For sake of factoring at least one request out, I will make that player to be Williams and include it only as a future pick deal.


If we believe our kids are ready to seriously compete from 2020-2024, but we believe we are missing key role players and even more talent to cram into the best 22 then these teen picks open up massive opportunities.

You can substitute the players below for other players (Keith, Papley, Day whatever), but the concept of a bunch of first rounders to go 'all in' for mature elite talent (if that's want the club wants) is what's really important. So as an example here are the main 4 players we have been linked to in the media:

Free Agents:

(1) Adam Tomlinson (KPD) (Linked to us in the media)

Trades:

(1) Pick 12 - Jack Martin (Polec, with Pittard as steak knives, went pick 11 last year, I see value akin to that trade. If you compare Polac & Martin stats they are very close to each other) (I have reservations about him if he's demand is $700,000 X 6, but he's clearly very talented and we are linked in media)

(2) Pick 14 - Bradley Hill (He was originally traded for pick 23. Closely matched to Polec at 11 or Tom Mitchell, Pick 14. About fair price to me. We have, and most Vic teams have, been linked to him in media. I think pick 14 is fair)

(3) Pick 16 - Anthony McDonald-Tipungwuti (AMT) (Charlie Cameron went to Brisbane for Pick 12. Cameron is to me comfortably the better player, but a case can be made AMT's worth not far off that mark at the end of the first round. Dogs been linked to interest in AMT in the media)


Trading Relationships:

Picks: We have good relationships with JMac at GWS, Port and our transparency with Trengove and Brisbane, with the stern but good faith negotiations with Adams last year

Players: We have an ongoing healthy relationship with Freo (Hill), with GCS (Martin) and... Essendon, well no one gets along with them.

So I don't see too many issues in terms of our known character as a good faith negotiator getting a lot of things done. Selling the club to players is a hurdle we've always had, and Gordon kind of hinted we missed recent indigenous players because of not having any. Perhaps a strategy of targeting three different indigenous elite players coming together might be the best shot at it, to eliminate the isolation/pressure component. As a group, they're setting a new onfield indigenous brand and chapter for our club. With Goodes off field, and Jamarra Ugle-Hagan next year with the 'buddy-esq' hype already, and our other indigenous NGA talents. We could have 4 highly talented indigenous players in the years ahead with Jamarra. That's a strategic platform for us to attract more talented players. So let's not target one player who feels the pressure and perceived isolation, let's get a group with a impassioned vision from the whole of the club about what we want to do on and off field, without individual pressure and without isolation. Peter Gordon wants elite indigenous talent at the club, there's a bunch possibly out there this year and we have the money, picks and smarts (Sam Power) to pull it off.


List changes:

Incoming:

3 picks: Pick 80 (Kellett or other, perhaps Kellett gets to the rookie list), rookie upgrades La Young & Khamis on minimum wage.
5 players: B. Hill, Tomlinson, Martin, AMT & bargain buy/steak knives/DFA KPD
(2 rookie draft picks, or one rookie draft pick and keep Gardner - assuming Roarke stays as a rookie as depth??)

With the Hurley/Wingard Money (5 years, $950,000) & the Boyd Money of $1,500,000 in total terms left over for us. That leaves us an estimated $1.6m in the salary cap without looking at other savings, which are further down. Salary estimates:

AMT (26yo) - 4 years at $500,000
Martin (24yo) - 5 years at $600,000
Hill (26yo) - 5 years at $600,000
Tomlinson (26yo) - 4 years at $550,000
Steak Knives/DFA KPD - 2 years at $300,000

Total: $2,550,000 (less $1,600,00 in estimated cap - $950,000 more needed or $650,000 without Steak Knives/DFA)

All contracts flow into the next CBA which gives us some flexibility.

Age Profile: A good of talent on our list next year is around 20-27yo. By targeting good players to compliment them, one would hope the next window stays open for many years.


Outgoing:

This is the year for pruning hard looking at the personnel, next year is minimal pruning.

Need to find the circa $950,000 ($650,000) a season for four years over and above from known sources of salary cap room to cover all players and draftee wages. This salary cap room can be found, with some tough decisions. Sources include numerous tough calls on players who won't play in another GF:

Additional 3 Retirees: Dickson, Morris, Roberts (Roberts has played 51 afl games, 96 VFL games. If he's not going to get played at the top level, as the game disparity shows, let's move on). These are all premiership players, importantly they all signed contracts post Premiership. If these three are on the average AFL salary then that's circa $1.1M combined)
+
Retire or allow Suckling to do whatever he wants (current contract of circa $350,000 is then freed up towards the above) (The question is whether we can cover the lowered output of Suckling and better use the salary cap? I say yes).
+
Williams (trade) salary not counted as in this run down he's traded (maybe circa $300,000 per season) (This was the hypothetical one trade out as per the opening) Take the future pick for him.
+
Move on Webb (delist) (maybe $200,000 savings)
+
Any part of the 6% TPP rise over next 3 years (2% or circa $250,000 p.a. , total $750,000 over 3 years)
+
Stagger contracts to have some back ended deals that fall into the new CBA deal.
+
Porter gets a one year extension on not big dollars, Bailey Dale maybe a two year extension on not big dollars (listen to any offers for his services though, and take a good one if there's one) or go elsewhere. Wages for picks 81 & La Young & Khamis upgraded on a similar wage won't make a big dent in the savings we would find from the above exits.

Plus Savings in the last couple of years from Stringer, Dahl, Adams, Redpath, Biggs, Roughy, Campbell, Cloke etc. should have accounted for a good chunk of what we've been re-signing our younger players with this season.

So the job of finding salary cap can be done. But even say we run short, remove the steak knives/DFA getting $300,000 a season, that means we only need to find another $650,000 which seems easy enough. Either way after this, we are then too close to the cap to trade aggressively again, so we need to be confident the players traded for the teen picks are worth it. These players need to be key player types and skill sets to add to the mix to win a premiership. It's a very Hawthorn trading concept, in that under this aggressive trading option we are moving on 6 premiership players this year, to free up enough salary cap to aggressively pursue talented players in their prime year.

Bonts contract!!!!!!!!!!! Bonts signed up to his FA contract. Say he's on $800,000 currently. We'd need an extra $300,000 needed to re-sign him which comes from potentially Trengove, Wood & Duryea retiring before or around 'the' re-signing. Plus should have a good idea about new CBA. Should be able to restructure payments if a similar 20% up front rise in TPP occurs again. No need to stress about keeping Bonts.


Can this team win a premiership, or premierships? That's the question to run a near exclusive trading list management season. If the answer is no, then we are linked to the wrong players or we need to target another area if it's still weak.

B: Cordy Trengove/Young Daniel
HB: Crozier Tomlinson Johanissen
C: Hunter Bontempelli Hill
HF: Martin Schache McLean
F: Lloyd Naughton AMT
R: English Dunkley Macrae

Int: B. Smith, Libba, Lippa, Richards

Emerg:
Wallis, Jong, West, Hayes (mids/runners), bargain buy/steak knives/DFA
Trengove (Ruck & KPD/KPF)/Le Young (KPD), Wood (defender), Duryea & Lynch (HBF) Cavarra & Gowers (small/medium forwards)

Developing:
Sweet (Ruck), Porter (mid), Pick 81/Kellett
La Young (HBF), Khamis (HBF), Vandermeer (HBF)
Greene (mid forward)

2020 will add another top tier tall forward to develop (JUH) & hard good ball user mid (MacPherson).

Captaincy: Bontempelli. I think he will rise a level. Wood needs to prove the (c) next to his name is not the reason he's playing.

Bulk of that list above should see 5-6 years playing together.


Ins Defender - Outs Defender

(1)Tomlinson - Morris
(2) La Young - Roberts
(3) Khamis - Webb
(4) Kellett/pick 81 - Suckling
(5) Hill - Williams


Ins Mids & Fwd - Outs Mids & Fwd

(6) Martin - Picken
(7) AMT - Dickson
(8) Bargain Buy/DFA - Boyd



2020 Draft Picks: GWS 1st, Dogs 2nd, Dogs 3rd, Dogs & GWS 4th - Circa 2,400 draft points plus Bailey Williams future so well over 2,500 points. - Could be 2,000-2,500 points to secure both JUH & MacPherson. Then take one or two more at the draft (1-2). List management focus is on the top end talent in our access (2), with minimal turnover (3-4).

2020 potential delistees: 3-4 from: Porter (talent to make it?), Lynch & Hayes (if not getting games), Jong, Cavarra & Greene (if another year of consistent injuries)


All this post is not meant to be completely precise (there's way too many variables to pick out a thing here or there), ins & outs, contract years and dollars, being rejected by some players or merely having a more middle path mindset changes all of the above. Like writing an article on the band Still water, it's a think piece. About what an aggressive trading strategy could look like, and whether it's something we should ignore, entertain or do. The only thing we know is we have probably over $2M in cap room after list exits (if we make them) and a strong hand of draft picks. Importantly, we have to get the strategy right and bring in talent to help take us back into September for many years ahead.

[Axe Man]

Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

Wow, that's some detailed analysis BT, well done.

I think it's very long odds that we would bring that many fairly high profile players in at once, but the concept is good and if we do half of that it would be a good result.

Just a note that I don't think Kellett would qualify as a category B rookie (international, next generation academy, from another sport, etc).