BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

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  • Hotdog60
    Bulldog Team of the Century
    • Aug 2009
    • 5887

    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

    I heard Easton in a interview on the captaincy and I have a gut feeling Bont will be captain next year.
    Don't piss off old people
    The older we get the less "LIFE IN PRISON" is a deterrent...

    Comment

    • Bornadog
      WOOF Clubhouse Leader
      • Jan 2007
      • 66573

      Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

      Originally posted by Hotdog60
      I heard Easton in a interview on the captaincy and I have a gut feeling Bont will be captain next year.
      Yeah he said that in this interview earlier in the year: https://www.woof.net.au/forum/showth...ht=easton+wood
      FFC: Established 1883

      Premierships: AFL 1954, 2016 VFA - 1898,99,1900, 1908, 1913, 1919-20, 1923-24, VFL: 2014, 2016 . Champions of Victoria 1924. AFLW - 2018.

      Comment

      • The Doctor
        Coaching Staff
        • Jan 2007
        • 3702

        Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

        Liam Pickering saying that Dickson should be right to continue with the Dogs. Its just a wait and see what happens in the trade period.
        Listening to Brahm's 3rd Racket

        Comment

        • Smads57
          Coaching Staff
          • Nov 2014
          • 2646

          Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

          Originally posted by GVGjr
          Current breakdown by position assuming the confirmed and likely departures happen

          Defenders: (14)
          Key Defenders: Lewis Young, Jackson Trengove, Zaine Cordy, Alex Keath*
          Mid Sized Defenders: Matthew Suckling, Hayden Crozier, Easton Wood, Laitham Vandermeer, Buku Khamis (R), Bailey Williams, Lachlan Young (R)
          Small Defenders: Taylor Duryea, Caleb Daniel, Jason Johannisen

          Midfielders: (Includes Rucks) (15)
          Tall Midfielders: Marcus Bontempelli, Josh Dunkley, Jackson Macrae, Patrick Lipinski, Lin Jong
          Mid/Small Midfielders: Mitch Wallis, Bailey Smith, Lachie Hunter, Toby McLean, Ed Richards, Tom Liberatore, Callum Porter, Will Hayes,
          Rucks: Tim English, Jordon Sweet (R)

          Forwards:
          (11)
          Key Fowards: Josh Schache, Aaron Naughton, Josh Bruce*
          Mid Sized Forwards: Sam Lloyd, Billy Gowers, Tory Dickson, Fergus Greene, Bailey Dale, Brad Lynch
          Small Forwards: Rhylee West, Ben Cavarra

          That's 40 names including the 2 likely additions.
          Which could mean Fletcher Roberts and Lukas Webb going from the senior list along with the 3 retired players and Rorke Smith from the rookie list and Ryan Garder not retained. Although we could de-list and re-draft one or more of them

          If I've missed anyone, please let me know
          Having watched Vandermeer in a number of VFL games, can I suggest he is more a outside mid/fwd than defender.
          There is no sadder sight than a young pessimist.
          ​​​

          Comment

          • Bornadog
            WOOF Clubhouse Leader
            • Jan 2007
            • 66573

            Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

            Originally posted by GVGjr
            Current breakdown by position assuming the confirmed and likely departures happen

            Defenders: (14)
            Key Defenders: Lewis Young, Jackson Trengove, Zaine Cordy, Alex Keath*
            Mid Sized Defenders: Matthew Suckling, Hayden Crozier, Easton Wood, Laitham Vandermeer, Buku Khamis (R), Bailey Williams, Lachlan Young (R)
            Small Defenders: Taylor Duryea, Caleb Daniel, Jason Johannisen

            Midfielders: (Includes Rucks) (15)
            Tall Midfielders: Marcus Bontempelli, Josh Dunkley, Jackson Macrae, Patrick Lipinski, Lin Jong
            Mid/Small Midfielders: Mitch Wallis, Bailey Smith, Lachie Hunter, Toby McLean, Ed Richards, Tom Liberatore, Callum Porter, Will Hayes,
            Rucks: Tim English, Jordon Sweet (R)

            Forwards:
            (11)
            Key Fowards: Josh Schache, Aaron Naughton, Josh Bruce*
            Mid Sized Forwards: Sam Lloyd, Billy Gowers, Tory Dickson, Fergus Greene, Bailey Dale, Brad Lynch
            Small Forwards: Rhylee West, Ben Cavarra

            That's 40 names including the 2 likely additions.
            Which could mean Fletcher Roberts and Lukas Webb going from the senior list along with the 3 retired players and Rorke Smith from the rookie list and Ryan Garder not retained. Although we could de-list and re-draft one or more of them

            If I've missed anyone, please let me know
            If Keath and Bruce come in, then I would put Trengove under rucks.
            FFC: Established 1883

            Premierships: AFL 1954, 2016 VFA - 1898,99,1900, 1908, 1913, 1919-20, 1923-24, VFL: 2014, 2016 . Champions of Victoria 1924. AFLW - 2018.

            Comment

            • bulldogtragic
              The List Manager
              • Jan 2007
              • 34316

              Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

              I went through posts yesterday, some of my ramblings and some others about player values. So I've combined them into what could be a strategy today. Things could change in an hour, so this is only good for as long as things go along or until they change and then I can re-set them. So here goes in sequential steps of a potential strategy:

              (1) Trade between GCS & Brisbane:

              Brisbane trade Pick 21 for Ah Chee
              (Ah Chee was drafted with Pick 8 2015, and not dramatically lost value and had a good year). Pick 21 seems right.

              2) Significant trade between DOGS & GCS:

              Dogs: Picks 13, 2020 1st & 4th Rounders
              GCS: Pick 20, 21, 75, 2020 2nd, 3rd, 4th Rounders

              Analysis on plausibility of trade:

              In 2015 we traded pick 11 & future 3rd for picks 20 & 21 which blew out to 25 (Dunkley) & 26 (Collins). So it’s about right in terms of value. With compo on potentially Ellis & Tomlinson at end of first round and possibly Green, Henry, McGuiness & Mead picks 20 & 21 blows out to Pick 26 & 27. It takes GCS to Picks 1, 2, 13 & 15 plus a Martin Pick.

              In 2020 with our first rounder, GCS will have three more first rounders (& our fourth).

              Last year Brisbane (now) traded Pick 14 for GCS (now) Pick 19, Pick 19 & Pick 46. The points trade is not as heavily weighted in our favour as that, but gives us a big draft points win for priority access players. So it seems within the realms of plausiblity.


              (3) From here for the DOGS:

              I'm in the camp of four trade/free agents.

              (i) RFA/DFA Tom Nicholls if we miss Zac Smith as our cheap insurance plan (He was the NEAFL player of the year this year). We strongly enquired about him in 2016 where a stupid wage was raised, we walked and he stayed. So we rated him somewhat then, and after three years of limited afl footy and hopefully a more circumspect salary expectation he could be the insurance ruckman who is more of a Bevo style ruck also.

              (ii) Pick 20 (26) & 47 for trade ($700,000 maximum budget)

              (Option a) Pick 20 & 47 to WCE. They get their 3rd pick inside 30 per Geelong demands, this might make life easier for them. But we need to get our end. So... We need to find a needs based player, quick and highly skilled, outside mid/forward type. Would they put up Venables (Keilor boy) or Petruccelle (Epping boy) with Pick 33 coming back. In effect WCE obtain Pick 20 with a 14 Pick downgrade for either player. They get Tim Kelly.

              (Option b) Pick 20 & 31 (DVI = Pick 8) to GWS. These picks secures them enough draft points for Green (if they kept them), for us a quality player like Zac Williams who is a RFA next year. A big cash offer could pry him out and potentially stress GWS salary cap with the need to lock in Cmeron & Whitfield. So the $700,000 (or part), and pick 20 & 31. That gives them 11, 18 & 20 (with Bonar) to try to get into the top 4 picks. Plus more cap for Whitfield & Cameron who wants GWS to deal now.

              (iii) After 2 end of first round compo and 4 possibly matched bids before Pick 20 (Green, Henry, McGuiness & Mead - 6 spot final shuffle:
              Dogs: GCS Picks 20 & 21 drag out to pick 26 & 27.

              Run Down:

              (Option a) Pick 20 & 47 for Venables/Petrucelle & 33 - OR -
              (Options b) Pick 20 & 31 (DVI = Pick 8) for Zac Williams

              Pick 21 (27) for Bruce (Pick 21 is a very juicy pick for St Kilda, but come the draft it's Pick 27 which is more realistic)
              Pick 31 or 47 for drafting use (1/3) (can be flexible to look at Keath if need to)
              Pick 33 & 49 - Freo 2020 2nd (DVI = Pick 22 that locks them into Henry re draft points)
              Pick 42 & 75 for Keath
              (Note: once it gets passed Pick 55 there’s a free hit on Josh Kellett if we are interested in matching any bid)
              Pick 84 for drafting use (2/3)
              Upgrade La. Young (3/3)


              (iv) CHF, CHB, Ruck Insurance & super quick, highly skilled ball users runner/forward-mid (Total: 4 ins & 3 draft night ins = 7)

              7: (1) Boyd, (2) Morris, (3) Picken, (4) Webb, (5) Roberts, (6) ??? & (7) ???


              (v) The 2020 draft points is in a very solid position: 2nds x 3, 3rds x 2, 4ths x 1. Points trading next year could bulk up our draft points further.


              Summary:

              I’m trying to see if we can wedge into known trades ie. Geelong/WCE, or exploiting GWS as they look to upgrade picks and deal with Cameron's salary demands and help them with them points for our benefit, and GCS as they're stockpiling 1st rounders for use or trade the next two years) and exploit them all to our advantage.

              As I opened with, this thought could be redundant by lunchtime. But the historical trade comparisons are accurate, making this at least plausible. With GCS gifted Pick 20 yesterday, their likely back to back picks of 20 & 21 look like a great trade for us to secure a third quality player this trade period.

              The flip side is needing to find two more players out the door no I'm not sure this will necessarily happen. So a ruck insurance might come with a late pick in the national draft. That would still leave one more out to come.

              I'm not saying it's going to happen, but thought I'd put down my thoughts with the changes that yesterday could have for us.
              Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023

              Comment

              • GVGjr
                Moderator
                • Nov 2006
                • 44573

                Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

                Originally posted by bornadog
                If Keath and Bruce come in, then I would put Trengove under rucks.
                Even with Keath coming in our KP defensive stocks are thin in my opinion.
                Lewis Young still has a bit to prove and many don't regard Cordy as a KP player
                Trengove will support both the backline and midfield as a rukman
                Western Bulldogs Football Club "Where it's cool to drool"

                Comment

                • Bulldog4life
                  WOOF Member
                  • Oct 2007
                  • 9607

                  Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

                  Originally posted by GVGjr
                  Even with Keath coming in our KP defensive stocks are thin in my opinion.
                  Lewis Young still has a bit to prove and many don't regard Cordy as a KP player
                  Trengove will support both the backline and midfield as a rukman
                  Agree. Another key back would be good. If we lose Roberts our defensive stocks stays the same unless Naughton plays back.

                  Comment

                  • The Doctor
                    Coaching Staff
                    • Jan 2007
                    • 3702

                    Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

                    Originally posted by GVGjr
                    Current breakdown by position assuming the confirmed and likely departures happen

                    Defenders: (14)
                    Key Defenders: Lewis Young, Jackson Trengove, Zaine Cordy, Alex Keath*
                    Mid Sized Defenders: Matthew Suckling, Hayden Crozier, Easton Wood, Buku Khamis (R), Bailey Williams, Lachlan Young (R)
                    Small Defenders: Taylor Duryea, Caleb Daniel, Jason Johannisen, Latham Vandermeer
                    The KD's looking a lot healthier with the addition of Keath. It's a good balance of age and experience. I would like to see one more developing KD added if Gardner and Roberts are released.

                    The mid & small defenders are well stocked and with good quality too. I'd like to see Daniel high half forward feeding the ball I50. It will be interesting to see how Vandermeer develops. Although he has been tried forward in VFL he looks a more natural off half back or wing.


                    Originally posted by GVGjr
                    Midfielders: (Includes Rucks) (15)
                    Tall Midfielders: Marcus Bontempelli, Josh Dunkley, Jackson Macrae, Patrick Lipinski, Lin Jong
                    Mid/Small Midfielders: Mitch Wallis, Bailey Smith, Lachie Hunter, Toby McLean, Ed Richards, Tom Liberatore, Callum Porter, Will Hayes,
                    Rucks: Tim English, Jordon Sweet (R)
                    A grade quality in the tall mids but for me it lacks grunt. I'd like to see a bull in there.

                    Of the small/mid group I think we lack speed and kicking quality. It's a good group just missing some polish.

                    Must add another specialist ruck. If we can't trade in experienced support for English we have to draft one at least. Or perhaps a hybrid ruck/KP like Comben or Jeka.


                    Originally posted by GVGjr

                    Forwards:
                    (11)
                    Key Fowards: Josh Schache, Aaron Naughton, Josh Bruce*
                    Mid Sized Forwards: Sam Lloyd, Billy Gowers, Tory Dickson, Fergus Greene, Bailey Dale, Brad Lynch
                    Small Forwards: Rhylee West, Ben Cavarra
                    Bringing in Bruce is much needed and welcomed. I still think we are one short. Maybe the best KF from the state leagues. Shaw from WAFL or Riccardi from VFL as examples. However with Jamarra coming next year perhaps it won't be a priority this year.

                    While we have quite a few in the small/medium forwards group I don't see any A grade talent there. It is the weak part of our list.Lloyd & Dicko are certainly good players but nearing the end. Dale & Gowers need to find consistency and the others are still unproven. Imagine a De Goey or a Cameron on this list! If we keep our 1st round pick this is where we should spend it.
                    Listening to Brahm's 3rd Racket

                    Comment

                    • Mofra
                      Hall of Fame
                      • Dec 2006
                      • 14915

                      Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

                      Originally posted by Bulldog4life
                      Agree. Another key back would be good. If we lose Roberts our defensive stocks stays the same unless Naughton plays back.
                      Except Keath is AFL standard.

                      I expect we re-rookie Gardner as well, and I don't see him as a forward at AFL level so expect he trains with the defensive group.
                      Western Bulldogs: 2016 Premiers

                      Comment

                      • Bulldog4life
                        WOOF Member
                        • Oct 2007
                        • 9607

                        Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

                        Originally posted by Mofra
                        Except Keath is AFL standard.

                        I expect we re-rookie Gardner as well, and I don't see him as a forward at AFL level so expect he trains with the defensive group.
                        I was saying stock in the number of players to choose from when injury occurs. Gardner could be that extra back if we keep him.

                        Comment

                        • bulldogtragic
                          The List Manager
                          • Jan 2007
                          • 34316

                          Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

                          Casting an eye over our revised picks, a few different ideas pop up...

                          Freo may need to throw a pick back to St Kilda for Brad Hill. Plus they need draft points for their NGA nominee Henry... So Pick 32 & 52 to Feeo for their Pick 26. Freo hand St Kilda back a second rounder, but a revised lower second rounder but Freo hold onto pick 52's assigned draft points. They come out ahead about 145 draft points ahead by the move. We move up our second rounder 6 spots for the sum of Pick 52. St Kilda, well, they should be happy they get Hill and our offer of Pick 26 for Bruce and has a choice of Picks 26 or 32 to offer for Zak Jones. Everyone wins to different degrees.

                          So Draft Picks: 13, 26, 44, 50 & 88.

                          Bruce for Pick 26.
                          Keath for Pick 44.
                          Pick 50 for a 2020 3rd rounder (Freo especially, but Port & Hawks may be interested for draft points this year).
                          Zac Smith or Tom Nicholls types as UFA/DFA (or pick 88) ruck insurance. (Do it in draft if 6-7 spots won't open up).

                          Pick 13:

                          Draft. Pick 13, very late pick & upgrade La Young.
                          Trade. For a bigger name player outright - Two late draft picks & La Young.
                          Trade. Pick 24 & WCE small (Venables/Petrechelle type) helping the Kelly trade - Pick 24, very late pick & upgrade La Young.




                          The Adelaide centred trade strategy:

                          Pick 13 for Keath & Pick 23.
                          Pick 26 for Bruce (pick from below).
                          Pick 32 & 52 for Freo's Pick 26 (145 points ahead for Freo).
                          Pick 50 for 2020 3rd rounder (Freo especially, but Port & Hawks may be interested for draft points this year).
                          Zac Smith or Tom Nicholls types as UFA/DFA (or pick 88) ruck insurance. (Do it in draft if 6-7 spots won't open up)

                          Draft Picks: 23, 44.

                          Pick 23:

                          Draft/Trade. Pick 23, (44 for future 3rd), late pick and upgraded La Young.
                          Trade/Draft. (Pick 23 traded on a player = WCE Player for comparison value), Pick 44, late pick and upgraded La Young.



                          Both scenarios that involve a third player trade are very close overall. Pick 24 as our first pick in scenario one. Pick 44 as our first pick in scenario two. The difference is attributable to how cheap we can get Keath, being as he's uncontracted and our offer is 100% longer in length and more money too. If we can get Keath on the cheaper side, then pick 13 remains in play if we have the 'another big fish' which Sam Landsberger thinks, or ready to pounce if Martin & Papley trades can't get done. If we are forced to give up more for Keath, then it's the Pick 44 scenario two. Also, I think pick 26 is fair value for Josh Bruce (especially since two picks in that pick order are AFEL priority picks). So you'd think Keath & Bruce gets done with an option on a third player and depending on list spots, ruck insurance.

                          Either way: three quality players, maybe ruck insurance, a mid pick & late pick at the draft & upgrade La Young. Walk away very happy as a clubs and membership base. Hopefully by mid next week it's been a fun ride, one to really favour. Having had to endure a few bad ones.
                          Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023

                          Comment

                          • bulldogtragic
                            The List Manager
                            • Jan 2007
                            • 34316

                            Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

                            Sounds like the Freo aspect of our trade period could be on from the above.

                            St Kilda want better than 32 for Bruce. St Kilda want a pick in the 20's or 30's back on Brad Hill/Pick 6. Freo only have Pick 26 currently, there's an opportunity to pick trade for mutual benefit with a club we've had a good recent relationship with.

                            Freo: Picks 32 & 52 (pick 26)
                            Dogs: Pick 26 (Bruce)
                            Saints: Get their demands: better than Pick 32 for Bruce (Pick 26), get back pick in the 20's or 30's back (Pick 32).

                            Freo get the 246 draft points attached to Pick 52 by trading their pick down to Pick 32 (going anyway), towards Liam Henry NGA likely first rounder. While they get Pick 6. Freo tell their fans they've got Picks 6 & 7 and Liam Henry (first rounder).

                            Dogs gets Bruce for effectively picks 32 & 52. Dogs tell their fans we got an effective KPF for just a couple of mid/later picks.

                            St Kilda get Brad Hill, Pick 26 & Pick 32. And say there demands on both trades were meh and they drive a hard bargain.


                            It three trades seem so common sense, and represent a win/s, it should be done quickly and everyone move onto other things.
                            Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023

                            Comment

                            • hujsh
                              Hall of Fame
                              • Nov 2007
                              • 11866

                              Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

                              In the above scenario are we left with enough to put together an offer for Keath without losing pick 13?
                              [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

                              Comment

                              • bulldogtragic
                                The List Manager
                                • Jan 2007
                                • 34316

                                Re: BT's very, very, very, very early list management thread 2019-2020

                                Originally posted by hujsh
                                In the above scenario are we left with enough to put together an offer for Keath without losing pick 13?
                                Pick 44.

                                We'd need to stare them down. They have only two years previously offered to Keath. We have four years, on more money. They put out a press release about Keath wanting out. Keath is a former rookie, 27yo with 30 games experience. Etc, etc, etc.
                                Rocket Science: the epitaph for the Beveridge era - whenever it ends - reading 'Here lies a team that could beat anyone on its day, but seldom did when it mattered most'. 15/7/2023

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