2022 Draft Watch

[The Doctor]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

AFL Phantom Draft 2022: Early look at how first 25 picks will fall

The AFL national draft is just five weeks away and clubs are beginning to get their draft boards in order and zero in on their targets.

Here’s an early look at how the first 25 picks will fall in our October Phantom Draft, including all the latest mail.

1. GWS Giants Aaron Cadman – 194cm Forward, VIC

2. Brisbane Lions (match North Melbourne bid) Will Ashcroft – 183cm Midfielder, VIC

3. North Melbourne George Wardlaw – 182cm Midfielder, VIC

4. North Melbourne Harry Sheezel – 183cm Forward, VIC

5. Essendon Elijah Tsatas – 188cm Midfielder, VIC

6. Gold Coast Rueben Ginbey – 189cm Midfielder/Defender, WA

7. Hawthorn Bailey Humphrey – 184cm Midfielder/Forward, VIC

8. Geelong Jhye Clark – 180cm Midfielder, VIC

9. West Coast Jedd Busslinger – 196cm Defender, WA

10. St Kilda Cam Mackenzie – 187cm Midfielder, VIC

11. Carlton Oliver Hollands – 183cm Midfield, VIC

12. Western Bulldogs Mattaes Phillipou – 190cm Forward/Midfielder, SA

A lot of clubs have Phillipou ranked 10-15 on their draft boards, but some consider him to be top-five on talent and say he would be “a steal” if he makes it to the Bulldogs at pick 12. The Woodville-West Torrens forward-midfielder is a good size and possesses impressive speed, aerial abilities and a good kick. Recruiters describe him as a player who “can break games open” with “matchwinning qualities”. There is also some romance about a potential move to the Bulldogs. Phillipou’s father, Sam, played three games for the club.

13. West Coast Ed Allan – 194cm Midfielder, WA

14. Melbourne Matthew Jefferson – 195cm Forward, VIC

15. Sydney Lachlan Cowan – 188cm Defender, TAS

16. GWS Giants Lewis Hayes – 197cm Defender, VIC

17. Brisbane (match bid from Collingwood) Jaspa Fletcher – 184cm Midfielder, QLD

18. Collingwood Henry Hustwaite – 194cm Midfielder, VIC

19. Sydney Olli Hotton – 181cm Forward, VIC

20. GWS Giants Charlie Clarke – 182cm Forward, VIC

21. GWS Giants Coby Burgiel – 183cm Defender/Midfielder/Forward, VIC

22. West Coast Darcy Jones – 175cm Midfielder/Forward, WA

23. Western Bulldogs Brayden George – 185cm Forward, VIC

Whoever takes a punt on George will do so knowing he will be on the sidelines throughout next year after he suffered a late-season ACL injury. However, the potential payoff in the long-term is enormous. A power athlete, George has exceptional spring and speed in his legs and is a threat in attack both in the air and at ground level. While he still has some areas to improve in, he has drawn comparisons to Christian Petracca and could have been pushing to be a top-10 pick this year had he not been injured. It would be brave for a struggling club to pick him in the top 25 given the injury, but rivals believe a more established club like the Bulldogs could take a punt earlier.

24. Essendon Josh Weddle – 191cm Defender, VIC

25. North Melbourne Max Gruzewski – 192cm Defender/Forward, VIC

No Hewitt or Konstanty on that list. Slippers or mistakenly overlooked?

[Grantysghost]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

No Hewitt or Konstanty on that list. Slippers or mistakenly overlooked?

Hewitt I don't get, MJP gave some good insight into him maybe being inconsistent but his best looked amazing.

If we can get him late I'd be pretty happy.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

The draft manoeuvring this year will be fascinating to watch. Sam Power has said we could be active and could use a Future pick to get a good pick in this draft. The machinations are endless on how we could manoeuvre ourselves to improve our position. Some ideas that could be considered;

1. We package our picks 11 & 21 to obtain a single digit pick in the this year's draft to pick up one of the highly rated youngsters. That would then leave us with picks, single digit pick, 39 & 69

2. Trade with the Swans who have 14 & 17. Swans have been open about moving up the order. If they are not successful then trading one of these picks for a future pick of ours may have some appeal as they (Kinnear Beatson) have said they are keen to improve their 2023 draft position.

We therefore have picks 11, 14 or 17, 21.

Pick 39 becomes free to trade off as we are only taking 3 picks to the draft.

3. GWS have picks 15, 18 & 19. They too are keen to move up or trade into the 2023 as I understand it. They would seem the more likely trade partner. We could target picks 15 and one of 18/19 using our pick 21 & a future F1 (F2 would be nice).

Imagine going into the draft with picks 11, 15 & 19. That 3 decent picks to improve our list with & Pick 39 to trade.

Pick 39, which will become a 2nd rounder (maybe 35) once F/S picks have been used, to use as a sweetener or we could offer it to Brisbane (to help with Fletcher points) and get our 2 x F3's back from the pricks. Whichever way it is still a useful exchange pick as we are only taking 3 picks to the draft.

If successful in either scenario 2 or 3 we have the opportunity to bundle a couple of these first rounders to move up. We will be in a stronger position than either Sydney or GWS to do so as we have the higher pick (11) to barter with. Alternatively our pick 11 could very attractive to them in their quest to move and could open up a myriad of possibilities if they are desperate enough.

Love it. Looking at it laid out, we should 100% bid on Fletcher, and not just for spite, that the cherry on top. Fletcher will be bid before Pick 21. So after Fletcher & Ashcroft, we have Pick 23. So it doesn’t change the fact Pick 21 drops to 23.

But… if we bid on Pick 12, the GWS & Sydney follow up picks gets pushed back to 16, 17, & 19. It might only be pushed back a little, but it could change the calculus if our Future Brisbane First is on the table for one of them.

So by bidding on Fletcher, it’s say a Future Pick 15-19 (at least one high academy bid) in a stronger draft for this years Pick 16, 17 or 19. If GWS or Sydney aren’t thrilled with the options but we have someone we love/the kid available (a slider perhaps), a straight swap looks a little more likely by devaluing their following picks if only by a bit. Depending on results next year, GWS/Sydney could actually move up the draft order, for next year.

So bidding on Fletcher helps us if we are open to trading and trying to take 3 picks inside the top 23. Plus, *!*!*!*! Brisbane.


If we rebalanced the rookie list, then we could use Pick 39 (say into Pick 37) and use four picks this year. (Reducing Rookie List to 5 Cat A’s).


So: Jones, Lobb, Upgraded Sweet, Upgraded Khamis, Pick 12, 16-19, 23 & 37 (Rookie Draft Pick 11) (or a DFA in lieu of the RD pick)

2023: A First, Second, 3 x Fourths

[mjp]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

Hewitt I don't get, MJP gave some good insight into him maybe being inconsistent but his best looked amazing.

If we can get him late I'd be pretty happy.

For one person to be happy, someone else has to be sad. In this case, I would be the sad person.

[Axe Man]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

No Hewitt or Konstanty on that list. Slippers or mistakenly overlooked?

Hewitt is mentioned in the Ed Allen write up:

Fellow WA product Elijah Hewett is more of a genuine midfielder than Allan but is expected to slide a little further down the order.

[Grantysghost]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

For one person to be happy, someone else has to be sad. In this case, I would be the sad person.

Well your sad has much more gravitas than my happy.

So we shall go with sad!

[Grantysghost]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

So that phantom draft has GWS not bidding on Ashcroft.

I can't quite wrap my head around this. It's a competition why wouldn't you make them pay full whack for the consensus number 1?

Shenanigans? 2013 points v 2400 is a fair amount. Pick in the high 30s/low40s.

Maybe they keep their 38 if that happens.

[MrMahatma]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

So that phantom draft has GWS not bidding on Ashcroft.

I can't quite wrap my head around this. It's a competition why wouldn't you make them pay full whack for the consensus number 1?

Shenanigans? 2013 points v 2400 is a fair amount. Pick in the high 30s/low40s.

Maybe they keep their 38 if that happens.

The reasons I've heard for NOT bidding are:
1) No.1 pick gets $10k bonus - so better that goes to your player than another team's
2) The psychology of it - IE: We think YOU are the best player, so we took you at No. 1.

Maybe that stuff matters, maybe it doesn't. I can see why it would. If I was a young player, I'd rather get $10k than someone else.

[Grantysghost]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

The reasons I've heard for NOT bidding are:
1) No.1 pick gets $10k bonus - so better that goes to your player than another team's
2) The psychology of it - IE: We think YOU are the best player, so we took you at No. 1.

Maybe that stuff matters, maybe it doesn't. I can see why it would. If I was a young player, I'd rather get $10k than someone else.

I'm sure a wealthy sponsor could give him 10k worth of something
Maybe the AFL told them not to.

[hujsh]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

Possible reasons include

1. They did a deal with Brisbane that included not bidding on their players when they did the pick swaps (pretty much did the same with Collingwood last year so they are for sale)

2. They moved up the order to get a KPP player. No reason to bid on a mid

3. They want Cadman (that's the guy right?) specifically at number 1 and legitimately rate him at one. Moving up the order to get him maybe makes less sense if they bid on a mid?


TBH it only really makes sense if they did a shady deal (again) but don't worry the AFL is cracking down on it so it'll be treated with all the seriousness and sensitivity of the Racism review and the Talia investigation and the Essendon injections and...

[Grantysghost]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

Possible reasons include

1. They did a deal with Brisbane that included not bidding on their players when they did the pick swaps (pretty much did the same with Collingwood last year so they are for sale)

2. They moved up the order to get a KPP player. No reason to bid on a mid

3. They want Cadman (that's the guy right?) specifically at number 1 and legitimately rate him at one. Moving up the order to get him maybe makes less sense if they bid on a mid?


TBH it only really makes sense if they did a shady deal (again) but don't worry the AFL is cracking down on it so it'll be treated with all the seriousness and sensitivity of the Racism review and the Talia investigation and the Essendon injections and...

I'm suspecting point 1.

[Mofra]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

Do we want to take on another player who has had an ACL - that worries me.

An (arguably) top 5 talent (this year) at our second round pick is an outstanding risk/reward IMO, given we just handed two of those picks over for a couple of years of Lobb.

I'm happy enough to take risks at the draft. West Coast did it with Judd, Geelong with Selwood, Brisbane with Voss... if a player is that good sometimes you just have to take that risk because the upside is outstanding.

[hujsh]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

A natural forward would be good. High ceiling would be good.

Not a crumber or defensive pressure machine means doesn't fit our immediate needs. Given his injury he wouldn't be a selection for the here and now anyway.

[Sedat]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

An (arguably) top 5 talent (this year) at our second round pick is an outstanding risk/reward IMO, given we just handed two of those picks over for a couple of years of Lobb.

I'm happy enough to take risks at the draft. West Coast did it with Judd, Geelong with Selwood, Brisbane with Voss... if a player is that good sometimes you just have to take that risk because the upside is outstanding.

So did Melbourne with Petracca.

[GVGjr]

Re: 2022 Draft Watch

I don't think these things ever really come to plan but if we were to land Phillipou and George who would you consider with our 3rd pick?