2024 Draft Watch

[Mofra]

Re: 2024 Draft Watch

This year really is a weird one for rucks - the 'top' prospects are on the shorter side for modern rucks.

It may be worth looking at a 'hail mary' type for the rookie list - Molier (SA) is 201cm but recorded a 2.92 second 20m sprint (insane) or we can look at the Sudanese kid from Geelong's VFL program Ajang Kole Mun - huge, huge leap on the kid but is very much a 'project' type

[GVGjr]

Re: 2024 Draft Watch

This year really is a weird one for rucks - the 'top' prospects are on the shorter side for modern rucks.

It may be worth looking at a 'hail mary' type for the rookie list - Molier (SA) is 201cm but recorded a 2.92 second 20m sprint (insane) or we can look at the Sudanese kid from Geelong's VFL program Ajang Kole Mun - huge, huge leap on the kid but is very much a 'project' type

I read something the other day that suggested there is also a lack of taller midfielders as well. More Butters and Serong types than Cripps and Bontempelli's.

While I think rucks have to be a certain size I'm not too concerned about the notion that taller is better. A 200cm ruck who is mobile and has good skills should do well.

[Mofra]

Re: 2024 Draft Watch

I read something the other day that suggested there is also a lack of taller midfielders as well. More Butters and Serong types than Cripps and Bontempelli's.

While I think rucks have to be a certain size I'm not too concerned about the notion that taller is better. A 200cm ruck who is mobile and has good skills should do well.

Langford and Smillie are tall midfielders who should both go top 10, and Lalor plays like a tall midfielder too and at 187cm is a good size. There are a few taller mids available later as well.
Jack Ough is 194cm and should get picked up

[The Doctor]

Re: 2024 Draft Watch

Here are my thoughts.

We have picks 17, 25, 35, 48 and a full set of future picks. We have 6 list spots available.

Let's not be vanilla in our approach or player choices. Let's shake it up a bit. Lets stick some dynamite into the squad.

The Power Play

I don't mind if we get bold and have a red hot go at getting a gun. My target is Murphy Reid. He is a jet with exquisite skills. He can also create goals and wait for it. He can kick goals. He slots in immediately on a half forward flank and is the heir apparent to Adam Treloar's midfield role. The cost? Well it's likely he will go in the top 10. So I'm prepared to offer up our F1 and 17 to give us a chance.

The Plan B

So if we can't pull off The Power Play then my next plan is to target the best small forward available. Kako would have been my first choice but he is not available but an excellent option is Joe Berry. It would be so nice to have a ground level small forward who knows where the goals are and can also create them for others. He is likely to go top 15. We still have our F1 so that is on the table. I'm happy to add 25 to get it done.

When Port were bashing us up this year they had the camera in our dressing room and zoomed in on our small forwards. There were Macrae, McNeill and Vandermeer and I thought our case is closed. There is not a goal among them to help us in the 2nd half. We can't win and we didn't. Our small forwards are shit and I've been on about it for over 5 years.

If it turns out that we can't get deals like the above done and we go to the draft with our regular picks. I'd have a crack at;

Pick 17 likely to fall back to 20. Harry Oliver is my pick. Should be in the top 15. He's the best small defender in it. He has the ability to stop his opponent and rebound. Has excellent kicking skills and oozes leadership. Duryea and JJ are almost done. With small forwards in vogue and routinely killing us in games we need to win let's do something about it. Let's get the best.

Pick 25 likely to be 29. James Barrat is next. I'm expecting the best small/medium forwards like Hannaford and Davis to be gone by this stage. I could mount a case that Barrat is the best key defender in the draft. Of course it's debatable but I think he has all the tools to be the alpha key defender we are going to need in a couple of years when Jones and Lobb are gone. He's strong and tough. A great mark and a thumping hoof on him as well. There's a bit of heath Grundy about him.

Pick 35 If he is still on the board Jasper Alger is next. He is an excellent small forward who is genuinely quick and can KICK GOALS. He also sets them up and is quite capable up the ground setting up play. We need small forwards. The best teams in the comp have excellent small forwards and they are winning them lots of games including big finals. If we were to get Berry I would also take Alger.

Pick 48 will likely move up a few spots after all the payments have been made for NGA's etc. If Clarke or one or two others slip we might be in for a bonus but otherwise Xavier Ivisic has some appeal for his ability to be a clever winger/flanker. Thought he was terrific for Vic Country especially vs Metro. He's a bit outside but covers the ground really well has good footy smarts.

We still have 2 more spots. One spot surely has to go to a young developing ruckman. Ideally a player in his early 20's perhaps with some state league experience. Who is the best young ruck not playing AFL right now? I don't know! Could it be Ajang Kool Mun?

The other spot well there are a couple of others I like that I could just as easily use one of the earlier draft picks on. There are a fleet of Western Jets that come into contention. Midfielder Lucca Grego has to be a chance. Can see him as a small defender in the AFL. Keighton Matufai Forbes is a raw prospect I really like. A damaging medium half forward. A bit like Cam Rayner. He has something about him. Finally Lucas Impey as a key position/ruck prospect. Was very good for Metro and has a presence about him.

[GVGjr]

Re: 2024 Draft Watch

Thanks Doc, Terrific analysis and summary.

Plan A is a risk/reward scenario. Finding a club willing to part with an early enough pick would be hard one but perhaps the Tigers would be willing to part with something to strengthen their future draft hand while still maintaining a strong draft hand this year.
Getting inside of pick 10 to increase the chance on getting Reid might be a more difficult scenario but something around 10 to 13 might also be an option.

Plan B sums up our challenges nicely. We are clearly light on for talented small forwards and even mid sized forwards and have been for a while. Sure we have Weightman but he doesn't play like a small forward and in fact exposes us a bit more when we play 3 tall forwards.

Regarding the players you have listed:
Joe Berry would be a terrific addition but as you say he's very likely to be gone before our first selection.
If he available it's a no-brainer selection.
Harry Oliver is a classy defender, really uses the ball well and knows how to play 1 v 1 footy.
While he's not a forward he would fill a position of need.
James Barrat is not a player I've had on our radar but we should seriously consider players who are strong marks.
His combine results were pretty good especially for someone who is still not 18 yet.
Jasper Alger is definitely someone we should consider especially if we can't find a small forward with one of our early selections.
I'd even argue that we should double down on Alger if we selected a small forward earlier.
Xavier Ivisic is a steady midfielder and would be a solid later selection.

[azabob]

Re: 2024 Draft Watch

Doc, The Age have Reid falling to our pick.

20. Murphy Reid (Western Bulldogs)

Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro
Midfielder/forward, 181cm, 30/7/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 25.1 disposals, 10.3 contested possessions, 4.1 clearances
The Age’s August top 30: 17 October top 30: 18
Agility test: N/A 20m sprint: N/A 2km time trial: N/A

This masthead has consistently ranked Reid lower than other outlets based off recruiters’ concerns, including but not limited to his lack of size and speed. They still speak glowingly about his football brain, class and how good he was at all levels. Some scouts think Reid will make his living more outside the centre square at half-forward, whereas others rate him a top-10 talent and believe he can be a midfielder at AFL level. There is another group who view his draft range closer to 12-15. Non-Victorian clubs are wary he might want to remain in Melbourne.

[Mofra]

Re: 2024 Draft Watch

Barrat plays with intent. I like his style. There have been a few comparisons to KPDs but I actually think he plays more like Maynard from Collingwood.

You can get away with a height mismatch (May & Rampe do it) if you're aggressive enough.

[GVGjr]

Re: 2024 Draft Watch

Doc, The Age have Reid falling to our pick.

20. Murphy Reid (Western Bulldogs)

Sandringham Dragons/Vic Metro
Midfielder/forward, 181cm, 30/7/2006
Talent League stats (avg): 25.1 disposals, 10.3 contested possessions, 4.1 clearances
The Age’s August top 30: 17 October top 30: 18
Agility test: N/A 20m sprint: N/A 2km time trial: N/A

This masthead has consistently ranked Reid lower than other outlets based off recruiters’ concerns, including but not limited to his lack of size and speed. They still speak glowingly about his football brain, class and how good he was at all levels. Some scouts think Reid will make his living more outside the centre square at half-forward, whereas others rate him a top-10 talent and believe he can be a midfielder at AFL level. There is another group who view his draft range closer to 12-15. Non-Victorian clubs are wary he might want to remain in Melbourne.

If you look at some of the draft orders in various media outlets they have Murphy Reid well inside of the top 10 but there are some exceptions. FWIW I think he should fall somewhere between 8 and 12.

[Go_Dogs]

Re: 2024 Draft Watch

Great read Doc, cheers.

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

Re: 2024 Draft Watch

I have very little to add this time of year, as I just don't know anything about the prospects coming into the draft.
However its posts like the Doc's that keep me still reading and checking here daily.
Thank goodness for WOOF and our knowledgeable group of posters.

[mjp]

Re: 2024 Draft Watch

The Power Play

I don't mind if we get bold and have a red hot go at getting a gun. My target is Murphy Reid. He is a jet with exquisite skills. He can also create goals and wait for it. He can kick goals. He slots in immediately on a half forward flank and is the heir apparent to Adam Treloar's midfield role. The cost? Well it's likely he will go in the top 10. So I'm prepared to offer up our F1 and 17 to give us a chance.

You know I love you Doc but you want to give up 2x first round picks for 180cm player who isn't a midfielder and hasn't laid a tackle since he played Auskick?

I don't see it. To be fair, I don't always see it and haven't watched as much junior footy as usual this year but I did watch the champs and I'm pretty underwhelmed by this idea...

I LIKE the idea of targeting guys who kick goals but I'm not sure about two first round picks for Reid.

[The Doctor]

Re: 2024 Draft Watch

You know I love you Doc but you want to give up 2x first round picks for 180cm player who isn't a midfielder and hasn't laid a tackle since he played Auskick?

I don't see it. To be fair, I don't always see it and haven't watched as much junior footy as usual this year but I did watch the champs and I'm pretty underwhelmed by this idea...

I LIKE the idea of targeting guys who kick goals but I'm not sure about two first round picks for Reid.

Can't agree with you MJP except about the price. But I do see your points. It is a big play but I think it could be worth it and a risk we should consider. The Dogs were keen on pick 13 so they are clearly prepared to deal.

I think Reid is a jet and I can't be swayed away from that. He is exactly what we need in our forward half and we are not going to find such a clever player at any of our current picks. Well I can't see it. If we go into 2025 and our forward line smalls are VDM, McNeill, Sanders, Scott, West et al, none of them with natural forward craft I will cry, again. I do think he will become a damaging midfielder in time.

it is the biggest weakness on our list. The fact we have neglected recruiting genuine small/medium forwards so much has forced us to manufacture forwards like the aforementioned players and contributed to the disgruntlement of A grade mids like Macrae, Dunkley and Smith to leave the club. For Chrissakes we even played Daniel in the forward line in that debacle of a final v Hawthorn. It is seriously poor list management. Would you be ok with it if we don't make a bold play and just accept whatever small forwards are left at our later natural picks? If not how would you address it?

Back to Reid, in my view at best he could be a Butters or Treloar type. At worst Zac Bailey. He will play a lot of AFL football. If The Age journo is correct and Reid slides to us then no one will be happier than me. It's a good debate.

I wonder which player Woofers think would be a realistic target and who they would be prepared to part with our F1 & 17 for. Over to you Woofers.

[kickit2Koly]

Re: 2024 Draft Watch

If you look at some of the draft orders in various media outlets they have Murphy Reid well inside of the top 10 but there are some exceptions. FWIW I think he should fall somewhere between 8 and 12.

I thought it was a strange mock draft for us. I doubt we’d pick all of Reid, Gross and Moraes. To my eye they all look fairly similar in that they are smallish mids without any outstanding athletic attributes.

I’d love Reid but think he’s too good a footballer to last until pick 20.

[josie]

Re: 2024 Draft Watch

I have very little to add this time of year, as I just don't know anything about the prospects coming into the draft.
However its posts like the Doc's that keep me still reading and checking here daily.
Thank goodness for WOOF and our knowledgeable group of posters.

Wholeheartedly agree.

However….C’mon YHF, you too can become a YouTube armchair expert. Every time I hear a new name that might suit us or is somehow linked to us it’s YouTube surfing time for me. My problem is after my viewing I end up agreeing with our more learned woofers, even when they disagree with each other ��.

[Mofra]

Re: 2024 Draft Watch

I thought it was a strange mock draft for us. I doubt we’d pick all of Reid, Gross and Moraes. To my eye they all look fairly similar in that they are smallish mids without any outstanding athletic attributes.

I’d love Reid but think he’s too good a footballer to last until pick 20.

Gross is talked up as an athletic type and he's certainly tough, but he stops and props far too often when he gets the ball for mine.