2023 Draft Watch

[hujsh]

Re: 2023 Draft Watch

Someone of BF is making video analysis type compilations of different draft prospects. This one he just did on Watson is pretty interesting. Will share if he posts Sanders with them our most likely picks

[ledge]

Re: 2023 Draft Watch

Someone of BF is making video analysis type compilations of different draft prospects. This one he just did on Watson is pretty interesting. Will share if he posts Sanders with them our most likely picks

He is crazy good . His delivery could be a huge asset to us.

[Testekill]

Re: 2023 Draft Watch

We can't really go wrong between Sanders and Watson; now if McKercher were on the table then he's top of the list but both players would be very good additions to the team.

[ledge]

Re: 2023 Draft Watch

We can't really go wrong between Sanders and Watson; now if McKercher were on the table then he's top of the list but both players would be very good additions to the team.

Sanders is JHFs twin

[GVGjr]

Re: 2023 Draft Watch

We've already discussed the Watson, Sanders or Curtin scenario. Here are some thoughts

Nick Watson, a Weightman/Wizard combo would generate some genuine excitement with our supporters and compliment our taller forward set-up. That tantalizing prospect has to be right in our assessment of this draft and especially given a few teams might want to copy something similar to the very successful Collingwood set-up of this year. Watson's also got that nice level of self-belief or confidence in the way he plays much like the way Tom Papley goes about it.
History would say real small forwards don't get selected early in the draft but Watson will be the mythbuster this year.

Ryley Sanders, as a few have mentioned has some Horne-Francis type traits with the way he plays and while he doesn't quite have JHF explosiveness. For a number of years we've had a one of the strongest midfield combinations but with the departure of Dunkley and given that Smith hasn't quite come on like we have hoped is there a need to invest now in one of the better midfielders in this draft? Sanders has a good inside/outside midfielder traits and would be effective up forward when needed.

Daniel Curtin, the main knock on Curtin being linked to the Dogs is that we already have a number of talls but I'm not convinced that is a good enough reason not to consider Curtin. While most clearly rate Curtin as a tall and creative defender his versatility means he could in time also play as a big midfielder. He might lack that explosive burst of speed most clubs would want in a midfielder but he has terrific ball getting skills and a lovely kick. There is no reason why he couldn't evolve into a full time midfielder especially given his kicking skills.

Our preference appears to be Watson and our back-up would be Sanders so we are well positioned.

[Bornadog]

Re: 2023 Draft Watch

Why chaos could reign at this year?s AFL draft


West Coast are poised to keep the top pick for Monday night?s AFL draft. That?s the common view, although the Eagles still have the option to trade it before the first selection is made.

But another pick could become a hot-ticket item and throw the top of the draft into chaos ? West Coast?s 2024 first-rounder.

In a draft already set to be the wildest in years, it?s a look ahead to the talent available in 2024 that could make this year?s draft even more interesting.

Not since the 2020 edition, when North Melbourne surprised everyone by taking Will Phillips at No.3, busting all top-10 predictions, have there been so many possibilities from early in the draft.

Why would West Coast trade their future first-round pick?

North Melbourne, Hawthorn and Melbourne all had a red-hot go at trying to prise the No.1 choice off West Coast.

The deadline for the Eagles to accept a pre-draft offer for the top pick in 2023 passed last Friday. But they can still trade it on Monday night, when the first round will take place, although most clubs expect them to keep it and select gun Victorian Harley Reid.

However, opposition recruiters believe the Eagles? 2024 first-rounder ? which will be an early choice again if they struggle next season ? is up for grabs, with no Western Australians among next year?s top-liners at this stage. Any potential trade would be with this year?s top WA prospect, Daniel Curtin, in mind. For months, the talk was the Eagles would have to choose between Reid or Curtin, but this scenario would enable them to snare both.

Victorian midfielders Finn O?Sullivan, Josh Smillie, Levi Ashcroft ? the Brisbane-bound brother of Will, and son of Marcus ? and Jagga Smith are potential top-five selections next year, while South Australia?s Sid Draper was an under-18 All-Australian this year as a ?bottom-ager?.

Those names won?t mean much to the average AFL fan right now, but they mean plenty to recruiters already plotting ways to get their hands on the most promising underage talent.

There are paper-thin margins between this year?s top prospects, at least behind Reid and Gold Coast academy hotshot Jed Walter (a hulking key forward), before the 2023 draft class evens out as early as the teens, where club preference will determine how the order plays out.

And team plans could be altered further if North Melbourne repeat history and do a ?2020?. They have picks two and three, are potential bidders on Walter, and could change the course of the draft if they go in a direction other than two of Colby McKercher, Zane Duursma and Nick Watson.

To swap or not to swap?

Live trading during the draft, which was introduced in 2018, means list and recruiting managers will frantically work the phones as certain players slide, weighing up the risk and reward of trading up or down.

Hawthorn traded pick 27 and future second- and third-round selections mid-draft last year for Sydney?s No.18, which they used on Josh Weddle, who played 17 games in an impressive debut season. The success of that move might prompt clubs to be similarly bold on Monday and Tuesday.

But they don?t always work out. Carlton infamously traded their 2019 first-round selection to Adelaide for the Crows? No.19 in 2018, which they used on Liam Stocker, whom then-list boss Stephen Silvagni rated very highly. The Blues were not only betting on Stocker?s talent but themselves being better the next season.

Unfortunately for Carlton, they finished 16th in 2019, and eventually delisted Stocker after 28 games across four years. He has since reunited with Silvagni at St Kilda.

It?s academic

Then there?s the academy element. The Swans, Giants, Suns and Lions can match any opposition bid on one of their northern academy players, who train in those respective clubs? programs from a young age in the hope of graduating to the AFL list.

The 14 non-northern clubs have Next Generation Academies ? for players with an Indigenous or multicultural background who are from an AFL-nominated zone allocated to that team.

When a rival club attempts to draft an academy player, the team that footballer is attached to has the right to match the bid based on an AFL formula, whereby a descending points value is attributed to each draft selection.

For example, pick one is worth 3000 points, and pick 12 is 1268 ? right down to No.73 being valued at only nine points. Any selection from 74 onwards carries no points.

Clubs wishing to match an academy bid must do so with a collection of picks that equals the selection, in points value, that bid came at. The complication is that clubs receive a 20 per cent points discount on academy players who receive a first-round bid, and a fixed 197 points (about what pick 56 is worth) off any player after that.

Part of the rule is the matching club needs to use its picks directly after when the bid was made, which is why Sydney?s 2018 trades with West Coast were genius. The Swans? arrangement with the Eagles that enabled them to secure then-academy prospect Nick Blakey at a bargain rate was a much-talked-about live trade.

Sydney knew they would match a bid on Blakey somewhere in the first round, so they teed up two trades with the Eagles pre-draft.

First, the Swans traded their second-rounder in 2018 before the Giants bid on Blakey at No.10, which meant they were able to collate later selections to match the bid. After the bid was matched, they completed a second deal with West Coast that handed that original second-round selection right back to them.

There will be a strong academy flavour again in next week?s draft, just as there was in that aforementioned 2020 edition, when academy prospects Jamarra Ugle-Hagan (No.1), Braeden Campbell (5), Lachie Jones (16), Reef McInnes (23) and Blake Coleman (24) received first-round bids ? all of which were matched.

No more loophole

After Sydney?s 2018 move, the AFL swiftly shut that loophole, preventing clubs from following the Swans? example. It is the same bidding process for father-son prospects.

Draft

Meet the draft prospect tipped to kick as many goals as Betts, Breust and co.
And though clubs used to be able to match any bid on a Next Generation Academy player, just like the northern academies, the AFL changed the rule. Clubs can still match bids, but only from pick 40 onwards.

Back to this year?s draft. Gold Coast will match four opposition bids on academy prospects next week, with at least three of them set to come in the first round. Father-son duo Jordan Croft (tied to Western Bulldogs) and Will McCabe (Hawthorn) are also likely first-round draftees.

However, North Melbourne (Ryley Sanders), West Coast (Lance Collard), Hawthorn (Tew Jiath, brother of Changkuoth), Fremantle (Mitch Edwards) and the Bulldogs (Luamon Lual) are set to miss out on NGA players because of that rule change.

The first domino

There is a popular top 10, which includes, in no particular order: Reid, Walter, McKercher, Duursma, Watson, Sanders, Nate Caddy, Curtin, Ethan Read and Connor O?Sullivan, although bolters Caleb Windsor and James Leake are threatening to break in.

All it would take is for one club to select Windsor or Leake with a top-10 pick, or make an earlier-than-expected bid on someone such as Gold Coast-bound midfielder Jake Rogers, for everything to change.

The Suns accumulated a suite of selections in the trade period in preparation for the worst-case scenario with their academy young guns.

After the top 10 or 12 selections, recruiters will tell you there are fewer genuinely safe picks than usual, and clubs may resort to punting on unproven upside. It?s going to be a fascinating draft.

[Bornadog]

Re: 2023 Draft Watch

The Age?s top 40

As published at the end of October:

1. Harley Reid
2. Jed Walter
3. Colby McKercher
4. Zane Duursma
5. Nick Watson
6. Ryley Sanders
7. Nate Caddy
8. Daniel Curtin
9. Ethan Read
10. Connor O?Sullivan
11. Caleb Windsor
12. James Leake
13. Jake Rogers
14. Darcy Wilson
15. Jordan Croft
16. Will McCabe
17. Koltyn Tholstrup
18. Riley Hardeman
19. Ollie Murphy
20. Lance Collard
21. Archer Reid
22. Will Graham
23. Arie Schoenmaker
24. Charlie Edwards
25. Taylor Goad
26. Harry DeMattia
27. Tew Jiath
28. Will Green
29. Phoenix Gothard
30. Mitch Edwards
31. Angus Hastie
32. Zane Zakostelsky
33. Archie Roberts
34. Caiden Cleary
35. Aiden O?Driscoll
36. Logan Morris
37. Cooper Simpson
38. Luamon Lual
39. Vigo Visentini
40. Koen Sanchez

[Yankee Hotel Foxtrot]

Re: 2023 Draft Watch

The Age?s top 40

As published at the end of October:

1. Harley Reid
2. Jed Walter
3. Colby McKercher
4. Zane Duursma
5. Nick Watson
6. Ryley Sanders
7. Nate Caddy
8. Daniel Curtin
9. Ethan Read
10. Connor O?Sullivan
11. Caleb Windsor
12. James Leake
13. Jake Rogers
14. Darcy Wilson
15. Jordan Croft
16. Will McCabe
17. Koltyn Tholstrup
18. Riley Hardeman
19. Ollie Murphy
20. Lance Collard
21. Archer Reid
22. Will Graham
23. Arie Schoenmaker
24. Charlie Edwards
25. Taylor Goad
26. Harry DeMattia
27. Tew Jiath
28. Will Green
29. Phoenix Gothard
30. Mitch Edwards
31. Angus Hastie
32. Zane Zakostelsky
33. Archie Roberts
34. Caiden Cleary
35. Aiden O?Driscoll
36. Logan Morris
37. Cooper Simpson
38. Luamon Lual
39. Vigo Visentini
40. Koen Sanchez

We don't really have any cache to trade with someone to move up into the mid 30's draftwise and get ahead of any likely selection of Lual?

[GVGjr]

Re: 2023 Draft Watch

Chris Cavanagh, Jordan Pinto and Dan Batten did a top 30 mock draft with each of them looking after 6 clubs each.

Cavanagh had us getting Nick Watson at pick 6 and Jordan Croft at pick 17. We would be delighted to bring in Watson and to land Croft with such a late selection as it all helps.

6. Western Bulldogs (Chris)
Nick Watson

Eastern Ranges/VIC, Forward, 170cm, 68kg

Chris says: There are plenty of talented talls in the Bulldogs forward line, but there is a void of good smalls. Cody Weightman kicked 34 goals this year, but played a lone hand as a specialist in an attack that was otherwise filled by midfielders resting forward. Watson looks the perfect partner for Weightman, as a clever pressure forward who can weave some magic and hit the scoreboard with ease.

17. Western Bulldogs (Chris)
Jordan Croft

Calder Cannons/VIC, Forward, 200cm, 81kg

Matching St Kilda bid

Chris says: If I’m the Saints, I’m thinking that Croft should not slip any further. I’m also thinking he would look good in my forward line alongside Max King. But the Bulldogs will clearly be matching the bid wherever it comes for their father-son. Jordan’s dad Matthew was a defender, but his son is a hard-working, mobile, marking tall forward who showed some significant growth in his game this year.

[Testekill]

Re: 2023 Draft Watch

ESPN phantom has Hawks taking Watson and us Sanders. Croft slides to 18 before a bid from North. Lual goes at 25 to Collingwood.

[GVGjr]

Re: 2023 Draft Watch

ESPN phantom has Hawks taking Watson and us Sanders. Croft slides to 18 before a bid from North. Lual goes at 25 to Collingwood.

Hawks will certainly shape our pick and I suspect Watson is our preferred target but we won't flinch if his name is called beforehand and act like it was always Sanders.

It will be a shame to miss on Lual. I was just listening to him on SEN and his preference is to come to the Dogs. He talked about his week training with us with his good mate George Stevens.

You can find the link here

A Collingwood mate thinks is Schoenmaker for them at 25 and he has an uncanny knack of getting these things right.

[The Bulldogs Bite]

Re: 2023 Draft Watch

I prefer Watson for that genuine game winning ability, and because we really do lack quality smalls in the forward half of the ground. A reduction of mids posing as forwards is high on my list.

But I don't think we can go wrong selecting Sanders or Curtin. Suspect we lose one of English/Smith which gives us an early pick next year, so the club might feel we are better placed to grab Sanders now. There's no doubt we need youth in this area of the game given Treloar/Libba aren't getting any younger either.

I wonder if we will take into account what may happen (i.e. English, Smith etc) and potential F/S in the next 1-2 years (any of 'em mids?).

I think we'll be pretty happy on draft night either way.

[GVGjr]

Re: 2023 Draft Watch

I prefer Watson for that genuine game winning ability, and because we really do lack quality smalls in the forward half of the ground. A reduction of mids posing as forwards is high on my list.

But I don't think we can go wrong selecting Sanders or Curtin. Suspect we lose one of English/Smith which gives us an early pick next year, so the club might feel we are better placed to grab Sanders now. There's no doubt we need youth in this area of the game given Treloar/Libba aren't getting any younger either.

I wonder if we will take into account what may happen (i.e. English, Smith etc) and potential F/S in the next 1-2 years (any of 'em mids?).

I think we'll be pretty happy on draft night either way.

My guess is that that of we keep all of Ugle-Hagan, English and Smith we won't want for much but if we lose one we are back into the first round with at least one pick.

[GVGjr]

Re: 2023 Draft Watch

I'd be rapt if we are somehow able to land Lual at the Kennel.

AFL Draft prospect Luamon Lual

Luamon Lual's life changed forever when his mother suddenly died. He reflects on her tragic death and how he managed to overcome the loss to put himself into the draft frame.

Luamon Lual was in Bendigo for a basketball tournament when he got the call that changed his life forever.

His mother Regina had suddenly suffered a stroke and was rushed to hospital in Melbourne, and Lual was whisked down to be with her.

She survived just a few more days. Regina Bol Obony diedon Tuesday 18th February 2020, aged 48, leaving behind her four children and her husband, Thomas, who were all in a world of hurt.

Regina had sacrificed so much for Lual. She and Thomas had fled warntorn South Sudan in the early 2000s in search of a better life in Australia, moving to Melbourne and then to Warrnambool shortly after.

She was a well-known figure in the Warrnambool community and had also been an advocate for change in her homeland, holding a film night in 2016 to raise funds for the cause.

"I was playing basketball down in Bendigo and then all of a sudden during the night, got a phone call and then had to shoot over the Melbourne as fast as possible and rush to hospital," Lual said.

"Then on the Wednesday she was pronounced dead. It all happened pretty quickly and I guess that’s life and I know she will be looking above a very proud woman."

Just 15 when he lost his mother, Lual battled early on.

But the support and love from his father, the tight-knit community in Warrnambool – which included his local club South Warrnambool – and his close friends helped him and his siblings get back to school and push through the pain.

The tragedy has given him extra motivation to do whatever he can to make his mother proud and be the best person he can be.

Being drafted appears a fait accompli for the Western Bulldogs Next Generation Academy prospect, and it will be a moment that means so much to his family.

"I'm not only just doing it for the people who are still here," Lual said.

"For mum especially because she sacrificed heaps for myself and dad as well, they sacrificed so many things. So I think it will make me have stronger expectations of myself to improve and give everything I’ve got out there.

"I think early days it was a bit of a struggle and obviously the passing of someone you love and someone who has grown up with your whole life is significant and difficult, but I guess dad through the harsh experience he had to go to he made it pretty quick for us to start focusing on school and get back to school as soon as possible.

"I think dad’s a big one in supporting us as well as close family and friends and places like the South Warrnambool Football Club … they've supported me strongly through the struggles and I have very close mates at school that are always checking in on me and especially when events come up and that they are always checking up on me, so very grateful for them.

"Certainly had some dark times, but with the support of close friends and the close network of friends I have I'm able to get through that passage of darkness and strive to be the best I can.

"Throughout the community of Warrnambool and the social networks that we have down there we were able to continue on with our life and to hopefully be drafted that would be a special day for my family and especially her."

HELP ALONG THE WAY

His father holds a special place in his heart.

Raising Lual and his three siblings alone for the past three years, Thomas has made plenty of sacrifices since making the difficult decision to move away from South Sudan.

Thomas often works night shifts at a nursing aged care facility down in Warrnambool. On some occasions, he would pick Lual up having not slept after work and take him to play across the state.

"He’s so special to me, such a humbling person he is. Often has night shifts and then gets to away games on Sunday," Lual said.

"Often wouldn't sleep and then go straight from work, pick me up from home and go to the game. I think over the past couple of years he has really enjoyed watching me play footy and he’s starting to understand it a bit more and loves the sport and he has been very supportive of me."

Another important figure since his mother’s death has been fellow South Warrnambool product George Stevens, who Lual has shared his draft journey with.

The Stevens family came to the aid of the Luals during their time of need, with Luamon and George spending several weeks living together after her passing.

Since then the pair have gone through the Greater Western Victoria Rebels and Vic Country programs together, and all those lengthy commutes from Warrnambool – two hours each way just for training in Ballarat each week.

"He is unbelievable, we have probably grown as mates, obviously through footy but during that time, as tough of a time as it was, as mates we come together pretty strongly," Stevens said.

"We basically lived together for three weeks, him and my family became really close throughout that period.

"He is an incredible person so once you get to know him, he’s a bit quiet at first but once you get to know him you realise the care and compassion he has for others and I think that’s the main thing.

"You know he’s got your back and you know he is only a call away or a message away.

"He’ll pretty frequently reach out to you and message you or things like that so he is unbelievable person and got talent on the footy field as well so it mixes pretty well."

ACADEMY BID

Lual's impressive season on-field as a defender while overcoming this adversity speaks volumes about him as a person.

AFL clubs have been thoroughly impressed with how he has handled himself, and his composure with ball in hand, defensive work one-on-one, elite endurance and superb character could see him taken in the second round of the draft.

Having been involved in the Western Bulldogs NGA academy since 2018, Lual would likely become a Bulldog if he slides beyond pick 40.

Whether he gets there is still up in the air with a very even middle section of the draft, but it appears unlikely that he will make it that far before a rival bid.

While there is an element of nerves about where he might end up, the 182cm defender is happy to play anywhere.

"Obviously the dream is to play AFL footy and if the opportunity comes up no doubt I'll take it and strive in whatever that environment looks like," Lual said.

"With the Dogs and what they've done for me I'd be very happy to sign with them.

"They started off with my development back in 2018 where I got some exposure in being able to play in the NGA game down at Whitten Oval which was a real eye opener and a real good experience for me."

[Bornadog]

Re: 2023 Draft Watch

Lual - great story, hopefully we can draft him.