2023 List Management Thread

[Grantysghost]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

Overall we're second for clearances

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/ft_team_rankings

Not sure about centre clearances specifically.

Surprisingly, we're 16th for clangers. Disturbingly, we're 16th for rebound 50s

We are #1 for stoppage clearances and #14 for centre clearances.
That +1 helps!

[mjp]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

I still think that with the change of midfield coach (Lade in) things have changed too much in the middle and we are no longer winning centre clearances - gone from number 1 last year to 14th.

This needs to be addressed urgently.

But how can that be? Bont, Liber and Timmy are all having AA years...

Also, how can that be? Win loss this year and last year much the same...

I know what you're saying about dropping from 1st to 14th in centre clearances and I agree, that could be a bit of an issue - but ultimately what has the actual cost of that been to the footy side? Is there a major difference in CBD outcomes in wins and losses? I mean, against Sydney we won CBD's 15-8 and lost the game. We won clearances 52-34 and lost the game. We had more possessions, more kicks, more handballs, more inside 50's and lost the game. We had more contested possessions and lost the game. We had more uncontested possessions and lost the game.

The biggest statistical anomaly?

Sydney average 11 tackles inside F50 per game - they had 22.

I know what you're saying (ultimately) about our overall CBD success rate, but maybe we have fixed that - after all, we just smashed Sydney in that area - and we STILL LOST.

[kruder]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

It's the quality of the clearances that really matter, I'm guessing everyone can remember Caleb off his left hitting Naughty out of the centre bounce in the first quarter, it was a thing of beauty. I still can't believe English didn't get the ball inside 50 from the centre clearance with 1 min to go against Collingwood the week previous, it happens too often with this group.

I'm a bit over us talking that we won the stats but didn't win the game, what it says to me is that we are looking at the wrong stats or our game plan/execution isn't good enough.

Its obvious that we don't have enough go forward factor out of the stoppage, we finally have a forward line that can threaten particularly when they have separation from their opponets but for some reason we haven't been able to take advantage of it.

[Bornadog]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

But how can that be? Bont, Liber and Timmy are all having AA years...

Also, how can that be? Win loss this year and last year much the same...

I know what you're saying about dropping from 1st to 14th in centre clearances and I agree, that could be a bit of an issue - but ultimately what has the actual cost of that been to the footy side? Is there a major difference in CBD outcomes in wins and losses? I mean, against Sydney we won CBD's 15-8 and lost the game. We won clearances 52-34 and lost the game. We had more possessions, more kicks, more handballs, more inside 50's and lost the game. We had more contested possessions and lost the game. We had more uncontested possessions and lost the game.

The biggest statistical anomaly?

Sydney average 11 tackles inside F50 per game - they had 22.

I know what you're saying (ultimately) about our overall CBD success rate, but maybe we have fixed that - after all, we just smashed Sydney in that area - and we STILL LOST.

The consecutive goals that happened to us in the GF was due to CC. We basically stopped that last year, but it has crept in again this year due to CC. Have a look at last weeks game against the Pies. They won CC one after the other.

The Sydney game is so disappointing because we seemingly smashed them in the contests, but the reason we lost was we were wasteful and not very efficient going forward. At one stage we had 10 inside 50s to Sydney's 1 and we only scored 1 goal.

[JanLorMill]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

The consecutive goals that happened to us in the GF was due to CC. We basically stopped that last year, but it has crept in again this year due to CC. Have a look at last weeks game against the Pies. They won CC one after the other.

That’s not quite right. We definitely lost CCs in the Freo final.

[azabob]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

Gone: Cooked:

Keath
Duryea
Bruce

Gone: Body not up to AFEL:

Crozier
TOB
McLean
Bedendo
Roarke (r)

Gone: Lack of AFEL Talent:

Hannan
McNeil (r)
McComb (r)

Gone: Lack of opportunity:

Sweet
Khamis


For strategic reasons I think the number is 8 main list players moving on. But I can see arguments for letting 9 go.

Whoever from your list that stays has to be on a one year deal only so they can be moved on end of 2024.

I would be inclined to keep Bedendo purely only on his athletic profile. I think we also need to keep one of Bruce or Keath for break glass reasons.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

Whoever from your list that stays has to be on a one year deal only so they can be moved on end of 2024.

I would be inclined to keep Bedendo purely only on his athletic profile. I think we also need to keep one of Bruce or Keath for break glass reasons.

Basically in my buffet list you can keep two players and still have enough vacancies re Croft. I?d keep Buku but he will certainly ask for a trade. So if the list the best two options from my perspective are Bruce on bugger all money (break glass option at either end, or ruck even) and maybe Bedendo on potential of getting his body right.

If I had a guess, the club would be more Hannan & Crozier/TOB.

[mjp]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

I'm a bit over us talking that we won the stats but didn't win the game, what it says to me is that we are looking at the wrong stats or our game plan/execution isn't good enough.

It just tells you that stats don't matter (that much).

If you lose contested possessions by 'TEN', the commentators would have you believe that's a huge number. Not over 80 minutes it's not. And not if you win a couple of key ones in d50 or f50 or whatever.

Is it better to be ahead on 'all' the stats? Sure. But ultimately you're looking for trends over a season etc. Given that, I prob shouldn't have been so flippant re- BAD's CBD stat (14th this year) but again, that stat is FATALLY flawed. If there are a LOT of CBD's, then the number is higher...if there are fewer, then the number is lower. Against North there were 29 and we won 17. More than we won vs Sydney. But against Sydney we won 15/23...proportionately HIGHER. But which number counts more??

It's just a DUMB STAT.

Is it totally meaningless? Well, no - less is still less and more is still more, but a % based number reflecting your win % or to Kruder's point your effective win % would be better.

BUT - what defines an effective win. Is that on the Centre Square crew or is some of it down to simple disciplines + skill execution by the forwards/defenders...it is BOTH of course, but where does blame get apportioned?

[Bornadog]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

It just tells you that stats don't matter (that much).

If you lose contested possessions by 'TEN', the commentators would have you believe that's a huge number. Not over 80 minutes it's not. And not if you win a couple of key ones in d50 or f50 or whatever.

Is it better to be ahead on 'all' the stats? Sure. But ultimately you're looking for trends over a season etc. Given that, I prob shouldn't have been so flippant re- BAD's CBD stat (14th this year) but again, that stat is FATALLY flawed. If there are a LOT of CBD's, then the number is higher...if there are fewer, then the number is lower. Against North there were 29 and we won 17. More than we won vs Sydney. But against Sydney we won 15/23...proportionately HIGHER. But which number counts more??

It's just a DUMB STAT.

Is it totally meaningless? Well, no - less is still less and more is still more, but a % based number reflecting your win % or to Kruder's point your effective win % would be better.

BUT - what defines an effective win. Is that on the Centre Square crew or is some of it down to simple disciplines + skill execution by the forwards/defenders...it is BOTH of course, but where does blame get apportioned?

Well all I know as a layman, you win the CC you have a better chance of scoring quickly, especially with 666. Melbourne showed that last night

[mjp]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

Well all I know as a layman, you win the CC you have a better chance of scoring quickly, especially with 666. Melbourne showed that last night

We dominated CC on Friday night.

Didn't help us.

[Bornadog]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

We dominated CC on Friday night.

Didn't help us.

We did, but we stuffed up by not scoring.

I was talking about the whole season how we have gone from number 1 to 14th and was that due to change in coaching and the way the mids are rotating through there ie who rotates ands who doesn't

[kruder]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

In regards to clearances, apparently we are 3rd over the last month and 18th in regards to effectiveness from the clearance. I'm not sure how they measure it(goals etc) but pretty much confirms what we have been seeing from our mids, with the overuse not taking ground etc.

As I said above Daniels kick to Naughty from the centre clearance stood out like a beacon, we just don't see it often from our mids.

[FrediKanoute]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

In regards to clearances, apparently we are 3rd over the last month and 18th in regards to effectiveness from the clearance. I'm not sure how they measure it(goals etc) but pretty much confirms what we have been seeing from our mids, with the overuse not taking ground etc.

As I said above Daniels kick to Naughty from the centre clearance stood out like a beacon, we just don't see it often from our mids.

Where was Daniel playing during our purpple patch this season?

[mjp]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

We did, but we stuffed up by not scoring.

I was talking about the whole season how we have gone from number 1 to 14th and was that due to change in coaching and the way the mids are rotating through there ie who rotates ands who doesn't

So I get what you are saying but at the same time I don't.

In chronological order:

- We got smashed in CC in the 2021 GF which caused us to lose - and the ball genuinely went straight from CBD to Goal in that pretty appalling last 10-mins of q3 that day.
- We didn't change coaches which might have been the problem - but then again...(see next point).
- We were #1 for clearances in 2022 - but overall we weren't that good as a side which is - of course, a problem.
- We did change coaches bringing in Lade which at the time seemed good but might be a problem?
- Now we are #2 for clearances still but #14 for CBD and that's a problem.
- Against Sydney though we won CBD easily but didn't score from them and that's another problem.

Kruder has added in that we are #18 (aka last) for clearance efficiency. Which of course is another problem.

We play + 1 at the stoppage around the ground which allows the oppo to +1 behind the ball...which might be part of the problem?
At CBD's, they can't do that so maybe our forwards or forward structure is simply not right...which is also a problem?

Ultimately I get what you are saying that if you are #1 for something then #14 for that same something then that isn't good...but I think ultimately we need to remember that when you look at any number in isolation it isn't worth a pinch of... The stoppage efficiency number is a fascinating one because is it more related to us or the oppo? Are they conceding and rolling back OR are they loading up and our players are so good they still win it at the source but then are under immense pressure?? And what's going on with our shape ahead of the ball.

I guess my issue with 'ALL' of the conversations we have been having around Ruck efficiency, Hits to advantage, Clearance wins at CBD and otherwise, Clearance efficiency and even some of the discourse about defenders win/loss rate in 1-v-1 contests is that when you take them one by one you end up painting a picture that simply is not true.

For example - Isaac Quaynor played well against us a couple of weeks back, but it was being spruiked by commentators on the weekend that he had lost only ONE 1-v-1 contest all year...but somehow Weightman kicked at least 3 goals against him when we played them...the numbers/stats simply do not hold up to scrutiny if you thing of the game as a game.

I'm all for breaking the game down into numbers - and we should do that - but as I said earlier in this thread our best players this year have (consensus opinion) been Bont, English and Liber. Yet those 3 players are primarily responsible for all of these clearance related numbers we are using to point at 'the problem' with. So which is it? Are they playing well and contributing to wins...or are their actions right now - and you need to forget about kicks, marks and handballs - actually assisting the oppo?

There's a lot to pull apart and break down here and if you want to understand why and how we are going from chocolates to boiled lollies within a quarter (let alone a game) I think it's pretty easy to work it out - we have a lot of moving parts rn and some of our 'best' attributes (clearances for example) are leading to our worst attributes (clearance efficiency)...are the oppo creating possession chains from those clearances where we do not create a positive connection with a team-mate? Maybe they are! And if they are, what are we doing wrong? Is it the shape of the ground ahead of the ball? Is it the surge/shape decision by the player with the ball? It's not a simple problem to work out...

[Dancin' Douggy]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

I would happily let all those players go.
Gleefully actually for most of them.
Maybe Bedendo is the only one who I think may have something to offer still. Something different from the rest of the plodders. And Maybe Khamis. And of course we need to replace Sweet with a proper ruckman if only to cover an injury to Tim.

Gone: Cooked:

Keath
Duryea
Bruce

Gone: Body not up to AFEL:

Crozier
TOB
McLean
Bedendo
Roarke (r)

Gone: Lack of AFEL Talent:

Hannan
McNeil (r)
McComb (r)

Gone: Lack of opportunity:

Sweet
Khamis


For strategic reasons I think the number is 8 main list players moving on. But I can see arguments for letting 9 go.