2023 List Management Thread

[Sedat]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

There's a lot to pull apart and break down here and if you want to understand why and how we are going from chocolates to boiled lollies within a quarter (let alone a game) I think it's pretty easy to work it out - we have a lot of moving parts rn and some of our 'best' attributes (clearances for example) are leading to our worst attributes (clearance efficiency)...are the oppo creating possession chains from those clearances where we do not create a positive connection with a team-mate? Maybe they are! And if they are, what are we doing wrong? Is it the shape of the ground ahead of the ball? Is it the surge/shape decision by the player with the ball? It's not a simple problem to work out...

The last two weeks it certainly feels like the oppo are allowing us to win the (dirty) clearance and are set up specifically to absolutely torch us on the inevitable turnover and counter-attack. Our defensive frailties in D50 have only been exacerbated since Liam Jones was injured - he hid a lot of sins before that.

When it comes to clearances, I much prefer the Melbourne 2021 GF quick, clean and deep to one-on-one type of clearances and not the hack kicks out to a nest of oppo players on the D50 line because we have a +1 at the source. BMac adopted a more extreme version of this tactic, and at the time it was embarrassing to watch us get so easily torched on the counter and concede astronomical scores on turnover every week without fail.

We are getting maximum output from our best players, so the lack of scoreboard impact from our clearances is a massive structural problem. I'm sure the MC know this and are doing whatever they can to address it.

[Mantis]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

The last two weeks it certainly feels like the oppo are allowing us to win the (dirty) clearance and are set up specifically to absolutely torch us on the inevitable turnover and counter-attack. Our defensive frailties in D50 have only been exacerbated since Liam Jones was injured - he hid a lot of sins before that.

When it comes to clearances, I much prefer the Melbourne 2021 GF quick, clean and deep to one-on-one type of clearances and not the hack kicks out to a nest of oppo players on the D50 line because we have a +1 at the source. BMac adopted a more extreme version of this tactic, and at the time it was embarrassing to watch us get so easily torched on the counter and concede astronomical scores on turnover every week without fail.

We are getting maximum output from our best players, so the lack of impact from our clearances is a massive structural problem. I'm sure the MC know this and are doing whatever they can to address it.

The Libba & Adz specialty... we should start benching both players if they resort to this tactic, no use doing the hard work by winning the ball if you're just going to hack kick it out.

[Bornadog]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

So I get what you are saying but at the same time I don't.

In chronological order:

- We got smashed in CC in the 2021 GF which caused us to lose - and the ball genuinely went straight from CBD to Goal in that pretty appalling last 10-mins of q3 that day.
- We didn't change coaches which might have been the problem - but then again...(see next point).
- We were #1 for clearances in 2022 - but overall we weren't that good as a side which is - of course, a problem.
- We did change coaches bringing in Lade which at the time seemed good but might be a problem?
- Now we are #2 for clearances still but #14 for CBD and that's a problem.
- Against Sydney though we won CBD easily but didn't score from them and that's another problem.

Kruder has added in that we are #18 (aka last) for clearance efficiency. Which of course is another problem.

We play + 1 at the stoppage around the ground which allows the oppo to +1 behind the ball...which might be part of the problem?
At CBD's, they can't do that so maybe our forwards or forward structure is simply not right...which is also a problem?

Ultimately I get what you are saying that if you are #1 for something then #14 for that same something then that isn't good...but I think ultimately we need to remember that when you look at any number in isolation it isn't worth a pinch of... The stoppage efficiency number is a fascinating one because is it more related to us or the oppo? Are they conceding and rolling back OR are they loading up and our players are so good they still win it at the source but then are under immense pressure?? And what's going on with our shape ahead of the ball.

I guess my issue with 'ALL' of the conversations we have been having around Ruck efficiency, Hits to advantage, Clearance wins at CBD and otherwise, Clearance efficiency and even some of the discourse about defenders win/loss rate in 1-v-1 contests is that when you take them one by one you end up painting a picture that simply is not true.

For example - Isaac Quaynor played well against us a couple of weeks back, but it was being spruiked by commentators on the weekend that he had lost only ONE 1-v-1 contest all year...but somehow Weightman kicked at least 3 goals against him when we played them...the numbers/stats simply do not hold up to scrutiny if you thing of the game as a game.

I'm all for breaking the game down into numbers - and we should do that - but as I said earlier in this thread our best players this year have (consensus opinion) been Bont, English and Liber. Yet those 3 players are primarily responsible for all of these clearance related numbers we are using to point at 'the problem' with. So which is it? Are they playing well and contributing to wins...or are their actions right now - and you need to forget about kicks, marks and handballs - actually assisting the oppo?

There's a lot to pull apart and break down here and if you want to understand why and how we are going from chocolates to boiled lollies within a quarter (let alone a game) I think it's pretty easy to work it out - we have a lot of moving parts rn and some of our 'best' attributes (clearances for example) are leading to our worst attributes (clearance efficiency)...are the oppo creating possession chains from those clearances where we do not create a positive connection with a team-mate? Maybe they are! And if they are, what are we doing wrong? Is it the shape of the ground ahead of the ball? Is it the surge/shape decision by the player with the ball? It's not a simple problem to work out...

Thanks MJP, as an ordinary old supporter, I merely asked why our CC are not as good as in 2022 and was this due to the change in coach and change in philosophy of who goes to the centre. Thanks for the explanation, much appreciated.

Talking about Stats, here is one that is not good reading:

[mjp]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

The Libba & Adz specialty... we should start benching both players if they resort to this tactic, no use doing the hard work by winning the ball if you're just going to hack kick it out.

Personally I have no issue with hacking it forward from stoppage. If you're facing the goals, kick the ball...

But why does our shape ahead of the ball not support it...makes no sense. If the oppo knows that's what we do, then why don't WE know what we do??

[mjp]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

Thanks MJP, as an ordinary old supporter, I merely asked why our CC are not as good as in 2022 and was this due to the change in coach and change in philosophy of who goes to the centre. Thanks for the explanation, much appreciated.

I actually don't think I explained anything. I just said "there's a whole lot going on right now and it isn't going to be an easy problem to diagnose or fix".

I also raised the question again of the numbers being put up by Bont, Liber and English and asked if they are helping us win or, well, whatever the opposite of winning is. I'm not convinced the balance is right at the moment and genuinely think we would be a better side with LESS being loaded onto these three players, the load being shared (a LOT) more and our midfield in particular being a lot more fluid with regards personnel. I know you said above we are getting

maximum impact

from these players and the more the season goes along, the more I think we are getting maximum OUTPUT but not necessarily maximum impact.

Something is awry and it's very hard to work out exactly what that is. Certainly the talking heads have 'tried' to nail it down but even those guys are battling - they talk about high possessions, high um's, high i50's, low scores, being burned on turnover - but there isn't much of a montage of 'look at this' and showing it happen 3-4 things in a row like you see them do with other sides...

Honestly, I think we are inches away - the problem is, exactly WHERE are those inches???

Talking about Stats, here is one that is not good reading:

Yep.

What does the rest of the list look like??

I mean, I know that looks bad because it puts us with North, Hawthorn and WCE but I would suggest we are actually CLOSER (a lot closer) to the top team than we are the bottom...mathematically we MUST be closer to the top team than the bottom. We are on 20. The best is probably in single digits? Who knows? But if the best is at 10, then we are the median number.

Don't get me wrong - the numbers presented aren't ideal but at the same time if everyone is bunched between 10-20, well, is it as big a problem as it looks when a list with just the bottom 4 on it is shown? And what are the numbers RIGHT NOW (since Jones was injured) and what were they from Round 3 (Brisbane) until Jones got injured.

To me, this is AFL360 engaging in some 'pre-meditated' stats sharing and the hosts were never going to ask a couple of simple questions...all that said, it isn't ideal but I think there is a much (MUCH) bigger picture to be uncovered.

[soupman]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

I totally get your comment (Macrae) but we have 100% 'skinnied' up our mids mix every year. I heard a Champion Data employee spruiking a while back about the role of 'mid forward' that he claimed we had 'invented' during 2015/16 where we had 12+ players rolling through the forward/mid mix. We simply don't do that..........................................Big, rather good post..............................................and most of all, SHARING THE LOAD.

Mjp your posts the last few weeks have been fire and while not necessarily offering a lot in the way of solutions they certainly are pushing us towards some interesting questions.

Speaking of which the above post has prompted a pretty big chat with a few in my non-Woof Bulldog circle. I think it's really interesting the change of focus from an all in approach where everyone is given responsibility and thus opportunity to contribute, to the one now where we are asking a lot of maybe 8 blokes and the rest are just trying to "play their role".

Looking at the 2016 squad I imagine every player came into every match with some things the coaching group wanted them to fulfill, but also with the ambition from both parties for them to influence the game beyond that role and embrace the challenge that maybe they can be something more than just the 20th guy picked that week.

Our 2023 squad feels so divided in that sense, we have our established guns who are in the side as game changers and then as many as 10 players who I imagine the briefing (implied if not outright stated) would be to play within their limitations and leave it to the other guys to do the real work. I used to play footy with a somewhat limited but very tough footballer who on his debut in the seniors was given the very public instruction to "absolutely never kick it, always give it to someone running past" and it kind of feels like we have a similiar vibe with a number of our guys, a "we don't want you to be doing anything actually important" instruction.

As a comparism example it feels like 2016 Biggs was given so much opportunity to get involved in passages and play to his ceiling vs 2023 Vandermeer who in a similiar role feels more like the 6th backman picked and thats all we want from him.

The discussion about our midfield going from a land of opportunity to this scenario where even proven quality mids like Bailey Smith are often frozen out is an interesting one. So much time is spent discussing fringe guys letting us down on here (think McNeil, McComb, Hannan etc.) but realistically are they even given any opportunity to make a meaningful contribution? Half the guys we draft are midfielders masquerading as something else so is it any wonder they are underwhelming to us supporters for not having an impact, despite being put in a role that is specifically designed for them to have minimal impact?

Two players that have some similiarities to me are Clay Smith and Rhylee West, both hard but undersized natural mids that have shown an ability to have good impactful moments in the side. Smith was obviously incredibly important in 2016 but would he have been given the same opportunity or responsibility to impact games as West now and struggled as a result? I don't know if i truly believe in West being a player but like many of our fringe guys it feels like they are trying to reach in from the outside to contribute instead of being embraced as part of our best 22 that week.

JOD is a crazy example where we played him multiple weeks as if we were being forced to at gunpoint and were just trying to hide him wherever we could until it was late enough in the game to sub him out. There is no way known if he got picked in 2016 that he would be repeatedly played in a role that could best be described as "miscellaneous surplus tall forward".

I have heard of at least one player in the periphery of our squad that is somewhat frustrated that it feels like with Beveridge if you are not in the in group (where you get his full support) then you are on the out and up against it (and have to succeed despite him, in a way). I think that kind of echos the above sentiments and the changing from 2016 being all about backing players in to now where opportunity seems to be drying up for those not "chosen".

I also wonder if this is part of the reason we haven't really seen anyone develop as a best 22 player from outside the core structure in years. JUH has but we have clearly put a lot of time into making that happen, Richards was given a position of great responsibility and took his chance, Weightman has but was given a lot of time is a role with no competition, Gardner is only just best 22 but was given a lot of time to develop in a very specific role. This isn't a case of some of Josh Bruce's goals don't count just because it suits my argument, this is more to point out that no one outside of these guys has really been saddled with any responsibility or opportunity to be best 22 players and maybe thats why they haven't become them. Sure Oskar Baker may not be good enough and maybe thats the reason, but have we been setting up in a manner that avoids heaping responsibility on our wings because we don't think they are very good, which is basically a self fulfilling prophecy?

[bulldogtragic]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

Great conversation. I remember banging on and in about it back in the day. Wanting us to do the same thing which we did.

In the Hawthorn 3peat, pretty much every centre bounce they’d change their mix. They were so unpredictable rotating Lewis, Mitchell, Hodge, Burgoyne, Smith, Sewell, Shiels etc. - they were so hard to match up on the middle, but they’d change the look of their forward line to and create mismatches to exploit.

Maybe it’s a bygone era. But our opponents and their coaches know exactly who is going into the centre square and how our forward line will set up. There’s no surprise, variation or men of mayhem about it. The oppo plan for it and we have hope our players execute perfectly or we are predictable and can be exploited and scored against.

I wonder why we couldn’t go back to that? Bonts, Libba, Treloar, Macrae, Smith, West, Daniel & Weightman could take a run in the middle. But could in short rotations try to create momentary mismatches. Mismatches from Treloar’s & Smith’s speed, Bont’s height, Libba the best kick for goal off one step etc etc. While we spread the load and give others a chance to impose their will on the middle.

Obviously Bevo thinks this is no longer a viable strategy. But I could live with seeing what would happen if we tried it again. As MJP has pointed out, our $3M midfield is dominating almost all personal stats. But we aren’t registering the wins we should.

[azabob]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

I know some posters don’t like David King but he said earlier this week how do we know if West is a good centre bounce player if we don’t try him. He’s right.

I guess the irony is we hate it when Bevo throws the magnets around and hate it when he doesn’t.

[FrediKanoute]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

I know some posters don’t like David King but he said earlier this week how do we know if West is a good centre bounce player if we don’t try him. He’s right.

I guess the irony is we hate it when Bevo throws the magnets around and hate it when he doesn’t.

Its not as simple as West being a good centre square player. He is going to have moments where he is good and where he gets torched because he has to improve his tank and learn the position. The problem has been that he has been so under played that he is behind where he should be. I think he is the natural successor to Libba.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

Its not as simple as West being a good centre square player. He is going to have moments where he is good and where he gets torched because he has to improve his tank and learn the position. The problem has been that he has been so under played that he is behind where he should be. I think he is the natural successor to Libba.

Which strikes at what I think is one of our main issues, development or a lack of.

[azabob]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

Its not as simple as West being a good centre square player. He is going to have moments where he is good and where he gets torched because he has to improve his tank and learn the position. The problem has been that he has been so under played that he is behind where he should be. I think he is the natural successor to Libba.

Isn't that the exact point though. How many centre bounces has he attended?

[Bornadog]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

Isn't that the exact point though. How many centre bounces has he attended?

Many in the VFL but his figures are not good

[mjp]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

I think it's really interesting the change of focus from an all in approach where everyone is given responsibility and thus opportunity to contribute, to the one now where we are asking a lot of maybe 8 blokes and the rest are just trying to "play their role".

Reading your post has added a little bit of clarity to what we are seeing onfield...

Have we created - in real life - a Western Bulldogs AFL Fantasy Team using the 'Guns and Rooks' strategy.

We have our 'Big Dogs' who we expect to bring home the bacon every week. And we have some 'rookies' - who we just want to 'break even'. And like every team we have some mid-price veterans who we don't really expect much from...just 'do enough to get selected next week' really.

And the problem is - as with Fantasy footy - big dogs are gonna big dog but EVERYONE has them. The games are decided by the rookies and the mid-pricers...and the question is are ours good enough/getting enough of an opportunity to turn the game our way...

[bulldogtragic]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

Gone: Cooked (2)

Duryea
Bruce


Gone: Body simply no longer up to AFEL (4)

Crozier
TOB
McLean
Bedendo


Gone: Lack of enough consistent AFEL Talent (1)

Hannan


Gone: Lack of opportunity (2)

Sweet (rumour Port et al keen)
Khamis (rumours Essendon keen)


For strategic trade and draft/Croft reasons I think the number is 8 main list players moving on. But I can see arguments for letting all 9 go.


Plus rookie list regeneration:

McNeil (3 year term expired)
McComb (Not an AFEL player)
Roarke (3 year term expired)
Raak (Maybe? Doesn’t bother me as he’s only a Cat B, but need to assess where he’s at)



With the greatest of respect to them all, I don?t think we will miss the 2023 versions of these players. How many really good games have they played combined? We can confidently have a solid prune of the list this year and not have unlucky ones. The bottom of the list is very weak and we need to build depth back into the list.

[azabob]

Re: 2023 List Management Thread

With the greatest of respect to them all, I don?t think we will miss the 2023 versions of these players. How many really good games have they played combined? We can confidently have a solid prune of the list this year and not have unlucky ones. The bottom of the list is very weak and we need to build depth back into the list.

Well summed up BT. Hard to disagree with any of that.

We should only sign one of those players (Duryea) and on a one year deal only and maybe, maybe Bedendo.