Coronavirus Info & Helpful Direction

[Bulldog4life]

Re: Coronavirus Info & Helpful Direction

You moved at the right time.

You're telling me BAD. Everything happened so quickly too. The real estate agent wouldn't do anymore opens so the last day you could I did it myself and sold our home in Rosebud. No commission either as authority had run out. Got out of Victoria with days to spare after buying on the internet. It was touch and go.

[Grantysghost]

Re: Coronavirus Info & Helpful Direction

I guess the question is, what level of death are we comfortable with?

100 per week?
50 per week?
25 per week?
10 per week?

UK is at about the 50 a day presently.

That's about 1 death per 1 million 300 thousand of population.

Extrapolate that there would be around 20 a day / 7300 yr here.

Flu deaths per year fluctuate pretty wildly but can be into the 1000 + range.

I'd say 10 to 20 per day is the target as horrid as that sounds (remember it will compound).

Edit : Influenza data wrong (fixed 4k -> 1k) 2016 - 464, 2017 - 1255 for eg.

[comrade]

Re: Coronavirus Info & Helpful Direction

UK is at about the 50 a day presently.

That's about 1 death per 1 million 300 thousand of population.

Extrapolate that there would be around 20 a day / 7300 yr here.

Flu deaths per year fluctuate pretty wildly but can be into the 4000 + range.

I'd say 10 to 20 per day is the target as horrid as that sounds (remember it will compound).

I don't have the figures in front of me but do we know what the death rate in Victoria was last year at the height of the outbreak, prior to the major lockdown?

EDIT: I looked it up and based on what I could find, the highest it got to was 21 a day over a 7 day period at the absolute peak.

[Grantysghost]

Re: Coronavirus Info & Helpful Direction

I don't have the figures in front of me but do we know what the death rate in Victoria was last year at the height of the outbreak, prior to the major lockdown?

Something like 20?

[GVGjr]

Re: Coronavirus Info & Helpful Direction

I know the vaccination rate is important, but this isn't going away any time soon.

We need to life with it. Some of us don't have enough time to keep life on hold.

The damage to mental health across the population, may well be higher than the problems from the virus.

I can recall talking to my grandfather with his experiences of the great depression and WW2
Some other people had to experience the Vietnam war. You talk about impacts to MH and life then these were massive tests.

While CV19 has been a long drawn out inconvenience to millions of people in Australia and the biggest test for the country during my life I sort of count myself lucky that we didn't experience what the likes of the UK and US went through with CV19 and other countries did during wars and depressions.

I don't want to minimise the MH challenges this has presented to all of us because they are very real but we have stayed relatively safe and this is very much uncharted times for the country to navigate. Mistakes will be made and we have to accept that but the underlying focus on peoples health needs to be acknowledged.

I don't want to learn to live with the grim reaper, I want us to send him packing. It remains to be seen if this can happen.

[comrade]

Re: Coronavirus Info & Helpful Direction

Something like 20?

Yeah, pretty much.

[Daughter of the West]

Re: Coronavirus Info & Helpful Direction

I can recall talking to my grandfather with his experiences of the great depression and WW2
Some other people had to experience the Vietnam war. You talk about impacts to MH and life then these were massive tests.

While CV19 has been a long drawn out inconvenience to millions of people in Australia and the biggest test for the country during my life I sort of count myself lucky that we didn't experience what the likes of the UK and US went through with CV19 and other countries did during wars and depressions.

I don't want to minimise the MH challenges this has presented to all of us because they are very real but we have stayed relatively safe and this is very much uncharted times for the country to navigate. Mistakes will be made and we have to accept that but the underlying focus on peoples health needs to be acknowledged.

I don't want to learn to live with the grim reaper, I want us to send him packing. It remains to be seen if this can happen.

I feel like the social isolation aspect of it all is a major difference compared to enduring wars and the Depression. At least during those events (to a point) people could band together. With this, we are literally being told to limit our interactions with other people as much as possible. And humans have evolved to be social animals, it's why solitary confinement is considered a heinous punishment.

I feel like it is just a sh*t sandwich with absolutely no real winners, no matter what course of action is taken. What helps one person can harm another, and vice versa. And the uncertainty that is dragging on, feeling like you're on edge and having to second guess every decision you make. It's just so exhausting.

I don't know.

Cheers for reading the ramble if you got this far!

[SquirrelGrip]

Re: Coronavirus Info & Helpful Direction

I don't have the figures in front of me but do we know what the death rate in Victoria was last year at the height of the outbreak, prior to the major lockdown?

EDIT: I looked it up and based on what I could find, the highest it got to was 21 a day over a 7 day period at the absolute peak.

Here are the number of deaths in Victoria since 2012:

2012 - 35,760
2013 - 35,916
2014 - 38,042
2015 - 39,904
2016 - 39,450
2017 - 39,791
2018 - 38,231
2019 - 43,944
2020 - 41,147

2021 (to June) - 19,906

When read in conjunction with the increase in Victoria's population over this time, our death rate has actually decreased. In particular, last year with COVID, our death rate was significantly lower than 2019. There have been virtually no flu deaths last year or this year.

If we went spent as much money and effort on decreasing other types of deaths as we have on COVID, we'd see a greater return.

[Bornadog]

Re: Coronavirus Info & Helpful Direction

Here are the number of deaths in Victoria since 2012:

2012 - 35,760
2013 - 35,916
2014 - 38,042
2015 - 39,904
2016 - 39,450
2017 - 39,791
2018 - 38,231
2019 - 43,944
2020 - 41,147

2021 (to June) - 19,906

When read in conjunction with the increase in Victoria's population over this time, our death rate has actually decreased. In particular, last year with COVID, our death rate was significantly lower than 2019. There have been virtually no flu deaths last year or this year.

If we went spent as much money and effort on decreasing other types of deaths as we have on COVID, we'd see a greater return.

There is a massive difference with Coronavirus. I would say the majority of those deaths are not easy to control.

CV is contagion and can be acquired quickly yet it is preventable.

Personally I think no target death is acceptable when we know everyone should be vaccinated.

[Bornadog]

Re: Coronavirus Info & Helpful Direction

I feel like the social isolation aspect of it all is a major difference compared to enduring wars and the Depression. At least during those events (to a point) people could band together. With this, we are literally being told to limit our interactions with other people as much as possible. And humans have evolved to be social animals, it's why solitary confinement is considered a heinous punishment.

I feel like it is just a sh*t sandwich with absolutely no real winners, no matter what course of action is taken. What helps one person can harm another, and vice versa. And the uncertainty that is dragging on, feeling like you're on edge and having to second guess every decision you make. It's just so exhausting.

I don't know.

Cheers for reading the ramble if you got this far!

The time of the Spanish flu was very similar to what is happening now.

If you go back and look at what was happening, you can read about masks, social distancing, stay at home etc.

BTW: 15,000 Australians died and world wide it is estimated anywhere between 18 to 50 million.

[comrade]

Re: Coronavirus Info & Helpful Direction

Personally I think no target death is acceptable when we know everyone should be vaccinated.

People will still catch and transmit and even die from Covid even if vaccinated. The likelihood of it is just greatly reduced.

We need to accept that Covid deaths are a part of our future.

[Bulldog Joe]

Re: Coronavirus Info & Helpful Direction

The stats about Covid deaths, I believe are misleading.

There are certainly some deaths because of it, but many reported deaths are actually with Covid and not because of Covid.

Several have been close to death before contracting covid.

The Australian Strategy seems to be towards eradication and that will not happen unless we adopt Fortress Australia and prevent any International travel.

It is time to get on with life and manage the consequences.
We have learnt lessons on hygiene and social distancing, highlighted by the reduction in the "normal" flu cases.

Maintain those rules and even masking where it is difficult, but let us live.

[azabob]

Re: Coronavirus Info & Helpful Direction

I'm not suggesting that Covid is just like the flu, but as a comparison Australia approx 700 flu deaths in 2019 so lets say 13 per week. As a base line, we should be comfortable with at least that number when opening up.

Not sure how anyone can be "comfortable" with people dying.

Surely your view isn't as black and white if it directly impacted your immediate family?

[comrade]

Re: Coronavirus Info & Helpful Direction

Not sure how anyone can be "comfortable" with people dying.

Surely your view isn't as black and white if it directly impacted your immediate family?

Maybe comfortable was the wrong word if you want to be pedantic. Perhaps 'accepting of the risk' is more appropriate.

If someone in my family is vaccinated and still gets Covid, what else can we do?

I've also had family friends and friends of friends choose to end their life over the last 12 month largely due to financial strain, business pressures etc endured through lockdown.

There has to be a balance and we have to open up at some point once vaccination levels are met, even if there is a risk of deaths. What other option is there?

[Rocco Jones]

Re: Coronavirus Info & Helpful Direction

Maybe comfortable was the wrong word if you want to be pedantic. Perhaps 'accepting of the risk' is more appropriate.

I know enough about you as a person to know you do not mean comfortable, however it's not about being 'pedantic'. 'Comfortable' is simply a poor choice of words. We all make mistakes. This is one.