Father/Son Watch

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Father/Son Watch

With this hype/attention, surely we’ve got an in principle deal with the GCS for Pick 6. It’s a win-win trade.

[GVGjr]

Re: Father/Son Watch

Cal Twomey has Jordan Croft at pick 11 in his latest update.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Father/Son Watch

Cal Twomey has Jordan Croft at pick 11 in his latest update.

Pressure to get Pick 4 from GCS rising by the day. Mind you, we should be able to do it.

Should we lose an EF. We have Pick 11. But with two or three bids before ours, we have pick 13-14.

Kids at Pick 4 & 11 is a great first draft night.

[josie]

Re: Father/Son Watch

Pressure to get Pick 4 from GCS rising by the day. Mind you, we should be able to do it.

Should we lose an EF. We have Pick 11. But with two or three bids before ours, we have pick 13-14.

Kids at Pick 4 & 11 is a great first draft night.

Thanks for your list mgt posts over the years BT-they are much appreciated. Who are the main rivals for GCS pick 4?

[Pedro Sanchez]

Re: Father/Son Watch

Pressure to get Pick 4 from GCS rising by the day. Mind you, we should be able to do it.

Should we lose an EF. We have Pick 11. But with two or three bids before ours, we have pick 13-14.

Kids at Pick 4 & 11 is a great first draft night.

Any ideas on how we can keep pick 11 as well as gain pick 4?

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Father/Son Watch

Thanks for your list mgt posts over the years BT-they are much appreciated. Who are the main rivals for GCS pick 4?

Think MJP said there’s 14 other clubs after it. Our firsts should be around 500 extra draft points to GCS and consolidate their picks a bit as they are unlikely to take in 10 list vacancies. So on points alone, the math says we are pretty good. If a club makes an overs offer deliberately on say Hollands and include equal points and a F1 or something then GCS might look at it beyond a straight points trade. I’ve advocated adding in a F3 to hoped sweeten the deal but in what MJP says it might not be enough. If we really wanted say Hollands or Flanders, would we want to add in a F1 so: three firsts for Pick 4 & Hollands/Flanders (unneeded late picks coming back this year for Croft).

The specific answer. GWS have two firsts. North too might have a couple of end of Firsts (Ports & compo for McKay) and could attach s F2. But it will come down to a heated auction it sounds like. Or with a cap squeeze, I wonder if a club trades a good player to then and pays part of their salary.

If we can’t find a way to pay the cost, or get out bid, then it’s a really interesting spot to be in. If Croft stays around Pick 11, then even the Sydney pick (plus F2) to WCE for Barass is too close. If Melbourne could get Pick 1 for their Pucks 5, 15-18, 24 and future F1/F2 swap, then perhaps we try on WCE for Pick 5. But not sure they do it. But they’d turn Pick 1 & Barass into picks (say) 11, 12, 16, 17, (19), 24 & F1. Not pointy end pick, but a heap of first round talent.

We just need to find someone wanting to trade down. Maybe GWS could trade down their Richmond pick to take in three first rounders this year (effectively replacing the one they list when Sydney surprised them last year).

What I would expect is that clubs know they can get ours for a good enough trade.

I still take Croft. So if we can’t get up the order, then we may need to look at player trades. For the right type of young player, I could live with that.

But the dream is to trade up ahead of the Croft bid and grab two top 11 players at the ND.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Father/Son Watch

Any ideas on how we can keep pick 11 as well as gain pick 4?

That’s Croft at Pick 11. That’s how we get two picks inside 11.

If Geelong misses finals and offers say pick 8 for Smith. Then we could get two picks in ahead of Croft and thus three kids in the top 11. If we needed to add in a F1 to GCS to get the pick but add in a young mid like Hollands/Flanders then we get another first round kid in, along with hopefully Lohmsnn who was end of first round two years ago.

A lot of moving parts, and more coming by the day in trying to get ahead of the Croft bid and then work out how to bring in young highly talented players of need (mids, small forward) and Croft for cheap for the future. Just need to be imaginative and nimble.

[Mofra]

Re: Father/Son Watch

Pick 4 is worth 2,034 points
We currently have picks 11 & 17, worth 1,329 + 1,025 = 2,354 points

Our picks may slide back by 2-3 spots after GCS academy bids so might not be much too much benefit at all to Gold Coast unless we add something to the deal.

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Father/Son Watch

Pick 4 is worth 2,034 points
We currently have picks 11 & 17, worth 1,329 + 1,025 = 2,354 points

Our picks may slide back by 2-3 spots after GCS academy bids so might not be much too much benefit at all to Gold Coast unless we add something to the deal.

… But GCS will use them for the first bid, so the they won’t slide. They’ll be used. Hence why they are worth more to them than us.

So it’s 320 points now it’s Pick 4 with Freo moving up. I’ve advocated adding an F3 and taking any used picks off them with points this year.

If that’s not enough maybe F2, but in my world that gets Lohmann. So maybe we try to get another F2 or look at F1 for a Hollands/Flanders which could be a bit overs if we miss the 8 which is a reasonable chance.

So either:

Two firsts & F3
Two firsts & F2
Three firsts with a young mid coming back


Edit:

If Williams leaves with whatever compo, we could try to trade out Pick 35 in a stronger draft for a later pick and F2 maybe. Use those thirds and our fourths, plus upgrade on fourths hopefully for Sweet & Khamis to come up with the points for Croft.

Maybe to WCE:

They get 35 & 73 & Sweet
We get from them Ports 3rd (c. 50) & their 4th (c. 55) & F3 (as good as a late second)

That’s nearly half of Croft at Pick 11. Williams compo and a few points Khamis and our and Geelong’s 4th probably get the job done.

[GVGjr]

Re: Father/Son Watch

I guess it's not ideal and part of the reason why BT is diligently working through the scenarios but if Croft is nominated by another team after our first pick lets say at #13 (as draft central are currently predicting) then after the discount is applied the points required are the equivalent of a late 1st rounder or early 2nd rounder to cover him. I think there would be some clubs able to assist facilitate that and we would still maintain our 2nd round pick.

So one scenario might be that we draft a key defender in Ollie Murphy or midfielder in Darcy Wilson ahead of landing key forward Jordan Croft with the next pick and then pick-up someone like George Stevens or Caleb Windsor who are mids or Jack Delean who could be a nice smaller forward with our Brisbane pick in the 2nd round.

We have a few picks in the 4th round and our recruiting team can hopefully find another gem or two with them.

[azabob]

Re: Father/Son Watch

I guess it's not ideal and part of the reason why BT is diligently working through the scenarios but if Croft is nominated by another team after our first pick lets say at #13 (as draft central are currently predicting) then after the discount is applied the points required are the equivalent of a late 1st rounder or early 2nd rounder to cover him. I think there would be some clubs able to assist facilitate that and we would still maintain our 2nd round pick.

So one scenario might be that we draft a key defender in Ollie Murphy or midfielder in Darcy Wilson ahead of landing key forward Jordan Croft with the next pick and then pick-up someone like George Stevens or Caleb Windsor who are mids or Jack Delean who could be a nice smaller forward with our Brisbane pick in the 2nd round.

We have a few picks in the 4th round and our recruiting team can hopefully find another gem or two with them.

I really think we are going to have to wait until draft night to see what we do with our picks. It will come down to what intel we can gather.

Does Croft have attributes to play as a key defender?

We are also unsure how the club sees Croft; is he a must draft like JUH and Darcy or is he more of a wait and see where he is picked.

[GVGjr]

Re: Father/Son Watch

I really think we are going to have to wait until draft night to see what we do with our picks. It will come down to what intel we can gather.

Does Croft have attributes to play as a key defender?

We are also unsure how the club sees Croft; is he a must draft like JUH and Darcy or is he more of a wait and see where he is picked.

I haven't agreed with the orders of a lot of the draft experts have Croft in mainly because he's physically likely going to take a lot of time to develop into a regular senior footballer. I've compared him to Todd Marshall who was drafted back in 2016 and it wasn't until 2020 before he really started to make his mark as a player and he's been a pretty good player for the last 3 years.
"The big boys take time" theme will almost certainly apply to Croft.

At the same time, as you've pointed out, we've got some more pressing needs in terms of building a midfield and probably a fleet footed one. Could this year be our Swans Dunkley moment with a decision on if we match the points on a player because we have other needs?
I've got no idea if we are chips in for Croft or not but it would be a hard one to explain to the supporter base if we didn't match a bid given we've regularly selected 'sons of'.

There is a bit merit and food for thought in your views.

[Pedro Sanchez]

Re: Father/Son Watch

That’s Croft at Pick 11. That’s how we get two picks inside 11.

If Geelong misses finals and offers say pick 8 for Smith. Then we could get two picks in ahead of Croft and thus three kids in the top 11. If we needed to add in a F1 to GCS to get the pick but add in a young mid like Hollands/Flanders then we get another first round kid in, along with hopefully Lohmsnn who was end of first round two years ago.

A lot of moving parts, and more coming by the day in trying to get ahead of the Croft bid and then work out how to bring in young highly talented players of need (mids, small forward) and Croft for cheap for the future. Just need to be imaginative and nimble.

Cheers mate - appreciate the analysis. All good.

[GVGjr]

Re: Father/Son Watch

This might be worth checking out

https://twitter.com/i/status/1692424123283284154

[bulldogtragic]

Re: Father/Son Watch

This might be worth checking out

https://twitter.com/i/status/1692424123283284154

What are these forward leading patterns to which he refers?